Where is bottom?

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, something which definitely hasn’t happened yet, since the last quarter of 2022 saw 2.9 percent growth. We are also at record 50 year lows in unemployment. The Disney parks are still packed to the gills and generating huge profits (even if the rest of the company may not be at the moment). You seem to very much want it to be one way… but it’s the other way.

You see, it’s a recession because people feel like it should be one.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I have thought about VGC but come back to this every time for the same reason as what you said. Better offsite options. We stayed at the JW, got upgraded to a suite, perks of breakfast, snacks and drinks in the concierge lounge all day. That suits my pattern of taking breaks from the park during the day anyway. We’d go in the morning and come back for breakfast. Hard to justify VGC over that.

Dumb question but what is JW?

 

[DonMacGregor]

Dumb question but what is JW?

JW Marriott. It's Marriott's premium-level business class hotel chain. Sort of entry-level luxe, between a normal Marriott and say a Regis or a Ritz-Carlton.

 

[Disney_David]

While I will always have a soft spot for Swolphin, my points DID run out since my travel days stopped March 13, 2020. I had started to get disgruntled with their pricing and started staying elsewhere anyway. I did a single Swan stay last fall and it was definitely NOT the same. I used to bring my family for 10 days, but not anymore. The point chart got out of hand, and for a cash stay, there are better options too. DVC makes so much more sense, even though my choice of BWV doesn't (the heart wants what the heart wants). I priced out my ideal vacation days across a number of DVC properties (cash stay) vs. Disney moderates & value vs. off-site options (Swolphin and then Hotel Plaza Blvd) and the Swan Reserve would cost $6K MORE than the Grand Floridian. NO thank you! When I did the math, I realized I should have bought DVC sooner, and used my Marriott/Hilton points elsewhere.

For my ideal vacation days, here's how the various options fared on a per night basis:
GFV $454.13 cash rate vs. $421.69 renting points at $21PP vs. $145.39 DVC - cheapest of the DVC options I priced
BWV $758.30 cash vs. $269.34 renting points at $21PP vs. $190.21 DVC - most expensive DVC option I priced

Ranking options from most expensive to cheapest:
Swan Reserve $824.07
Swan $477.29
Dolphin $407.30
Port Orleans French Quarter $357.01
Coronado Springs $338.91
Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista $334.73
Drury Plaza $265.35
Wyndham Lake Buena Vista $259.96
Pop Century $257.63
All Stars $205.20
BWV $190.21
GFV $145.39 - SERIOUSLY

Great post…I tend to use one of the free night award certificates (I have two or three a year); so I’m not really putting down points. I will tend to do one night stays and I can foresee enough stays to keep points topped up, but not a lot, work travel is down.

Part of my problem is I value convenience more than $, so I will valet and so with tax and tip, valet and resort fees are $100 per night before you add anything else.

If you could park at the resorts free of charge and walk back to the Swolphin (BWV, BCV, YC) would that change your mind about buying into DVC. I’m guessing not?

My team member gifted me a couple of DVC stays last month, and we very, very much enjoyed it. AKV Savanah view 1 bed in particular. While I enjoyed the BWV 1 bed, I’d probably stay at the Swolphin over that. We love the Disney bubble and that alone is enough for me to buy in.

$100 AKV would do it!!!

 

[Disney_David]

You see, it’s a recession because people feel like it should be one. View attachment 741652I

It isn’t affecting the parks, that’s for sure. We live 20 mins from the parks, go 3-4 times a week and it’s busier than it has ever been. There is no let up. People are falling over themselves to throw money at Disney (parks).

 

[Brian Noble]

What would be a better way to calculate for comparison?
I'd love a (realistic) way to be able to compare places I would stay or have stayed in the past.

I guess the flip answer is: It doesn't really matter, because timeshare is as much about forcing yourself to take a (nice) vacation as it is about saving money. In fact, I'm confident that almost no one genuinely saves money with timeshares.

But the real answer involves something called 'the time value of money". The basic idea: $10 today is worth more than $10 next year, which in turn is worth more than $10 two years from now, etc. The trick is figuring out how much more. This can get a bit complicated--I didn't really get it until I took an engineering economics class in college.

MouseSavers has a pretty comprehensive (and worked out!) example. They use the term "opportunity cost" which I think tends to be confusing for some folks, but it is based on the same idea of $10 today being worth more than $10 tomorrow.

https://www.mousesavers.com/other-disney-vacations/disney-vacation-club/#opportunity

 

[Brian Noble]

It isn’t affecting the parks, that’s for sure.

What's odd is that it is impacting DVC prices--both resale purchases and rental fees.

I haven't quite been able to square that yet.

 

[DonMacGregor]

In fact, I'm confident that almost no one genuinely saves money with timeshares.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

It isn’t affecting the parks, that’s for sure. We live 20 mins from the parks, go 3-4 times a week and it’s busier than it has ever been. There is no let up. People are falling over themselves to throw money at Disney (parks).

I went 6 times in 2022 because revenge travel is a thing I did. We had a blast each time, but every single time was unbelievably crowded relative to the same time of year previous years, even our “low season” trip in the second half of August. The only time of year that was less crowded than pre-pandemic was our Christmas trip, almost certainly because of park reservation caps.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

What's odd is that it is impacting DVC prices--both resale purchases and rental fees.

I haven't quite been able to square that yet.

I think Disney hotels in general got too expensive, too quickly, and are just coming back down to earth. It’s a correction. DVC rentals and DVC resale prices were far more expensive than they should have been. Disney rack rates are outrageous. Also, Disney has significantly devalued the “onsite” experience. I think people moving to offsite stays but still going to the parks is a real thing. Befor eCovid we would never have considered staying offsite because we thought the 60 day fastpass window was critical to having a good trip. Now with Genie+, that doesn’t matter at all.

 

[Disney_David]

I went 6 times in 2022 because revenge travel is a thing I did. We had a blast each time, but every single time was unbelievably crowded relative to the same time of year previous years, even our “low season” trip in the second half of August. The only time of year that was less crowded than pre-pandemic was our Christmas trip, almost certainly because of park reservation caps.

Interesting and I totally, I thought Thanksgiving was quieter than other years. We went to DLR at the holidays including Christmas Eve, and thought that was very quiet. Maybe people are staying at home for the big holidays too

 

[Disney_David]

I think Disney hotels in general got too expensive, too quickly, and are just coming back down to earth. It’s a correction. DVC rentals and DVC resale prices were far more expensive than they should have been. Disney rack rates are outrageous. Also, Disney has significantly devalued the “onsite” experience. I think people moving to offsite stays but still going to the parks is a real thing. Befor eCovid we would never have considered staying offsite because we thought the 60 day fastpass window was critical to having a good trip. Now with Genie+, that doesn’t matter at all.

Wholeheartedly agree. Rack rate is absurd. I’ll be watching this thread, and I’m sure I’ll pull the trigger soon

 

[Chili327]

I guess the flip answer is: It doesn't really matter, because timeshare is as much about forcing yourself to take a (nice) vacation as it is about saving money. In fact, I'm confident that almost no one genuinely saves money with timeshares.

But the real answer involves something called 'the time value of money". The basic idea: $10 today is worth more than $10 next year, which in turn is worth more than $10 two years from now, etc. The trick is figuring out how much more. This can get a bit complicated--I didn't really get it until I took an engineering economics class in college.

MouseSavers has a pretty comprehensive (and worked out!) example. They use the term "opportunity cost" which I think tends to be confusing for some folks, but it is based on the same idea of $10 today being worth more than $10 tomorrow.

https://www.mousesavers.com/other-disney-vacations/disney-vacation-club/#opportunity

Great link.!!


My thoughts on this are that I don't count the "deposit" that I intend to get back someday.. possibly with interest, or possibly take a loss, but regardless it isn't spent it's just a deposit. That helps me stomach this statement right here...

DVC purchase is not cost-effective in the following scenarios:

• You vacation 7 nights per year at a Moderate resort.
• You rent 160 points every other year from a DVC owner, starting at $19 a point.

In that scenario, DVC isn't "worth it" for me, but I refuse to listen.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think Disney hotels in general got too expensive, too quickly, and are just coming back down to earth.

There is some truth to this, but the hotel rates I am paying in general have been eye-popping. It's not just Disney.

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't count the "deposit" that I intend to get back someday.

Be very careful. In particular, if this purchase depends on getting a non-trivial fraction of your purchase price back, it might be better not to buy it. I'm a bit of a stick-in-the-mud on this, but I think one should be comfortable even if the timeshare is worth absolutely nothing when you are done with it. I consider any residual value to be found money.

 

[Chili327]

No, it won't matter if I lost it all or decided to run a contract into the ground, I'm just not counting it as part of my comparison to my "other" stays... (friendly neighbor hotels, etc)

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I think Disney hotels in general got too expensive, too quickly, and are just coming back down to earth. It’s a correction. DVC rentals and DVC resale prices were far more expensive than they should have been. Disney rack rates are outrageous. Also, Disney has significantly devalued the “onsite” experience. I think people moving to offsite stays but still going to the parks is a real thing. Befor eCovid we would never have considered staying offsite because we thought the 60 day fastpass window was critical to having a good trip. Now with Genie+, that doesn’t matter at all.

Disney’s most recent 10Q report showed their domestic hotel occupancy in Oct-Dec several points below what it was in Apr-Jun. And revenue growth per guest was only 1% year over year - way below inflation.

So the data backs you up on this.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

What's odd is that it is impacting DVC prices--both resale purchases and rental fees.

I haven't quite been able to square that yet.

I think the resale prices were inflated due to a myriad of factors - very tight inventory, aggressive direct promotions on sold out resorts that led to a LOT of ROFR, stimulus checks, relatively low interest rates, very tight onsite hotel availability. That was a bubble that popped, and what we’re seeing is a return to the fair market values. That’s my take at least.

In any case, looking forward, Disney has no dates with park passes sold out, is running their most aggressive promos in 3 years, is eliminating parking fees, and is furiously trying to set expectations of lower attendance on earnings calls. I think they’re expecting 2023 attendance to, at best, plateau.

 

[Anthony Vito]

(Also miss finding the Magic Express envelope hanging on your door handle …)

I must vehemently disagree with you on that one, and even question whether you're a monster . . .

Miss getting the Magical Express envelope with tags in the mail - yes. Miss arriving to the kiosks after the trek down to the first floor of B in MCO - absolutely. But - miss that envelope on the door handle that feels like Nelson from the Simpsons saying "HA HA" - you're trip is over - THAT - I do NOT miss.

 

[Sandisw]

I think the resale prices were inflated due to a myriad of factors - very tight inventory, aggressive direct promotions on sold out resorts that led to a LOT of ROFR, stimulus checks, relatively low interest rates, very tight onsite hotel availability. That was a bubble that popped, and what we’re seeing is a return to the fair market values. That’s my take at least.

In any case, looking forward, Disney has no dates with park passes sold out, is running their most aggressive promos in 3 years, is eliminating parking fees, and is furiously trying to set expectations of lower attendance on earnings calls. I think they’re expecting 2023 attendance to, at best, plateau.

The only piece about the ROFR is that the direct sales for those sold out resorts being taken was well below the points sold...so, they took a lot of points back that did not turn into sales.

I think that is one reason they buy things back, but I also think they do a lot of other things with those points beside sell, and I think its sell for cash and use for OTU points.