Where is bottom?

[Genie+]

We are in Jan/Feb mode these days. We like the Festival of the Arts and the cooler weather.

Festival of the Arts is so cool! Possibly the strongest food booth game of all fests and the atmosphere is awesome. Definitely a highlight.

Flower and Garden blew me away the first time we ever stayed at Beach Club. Epcot looked amazing of course, Garden Rocks had great bands playing, and BC lobby was just incredible with the fresh flower displays.

 

[sethschroeder]

Goldman Sachs should hire you to run the firm.

They wouldn't want them because their goal is to make you think its not a recession so they can make money off you. Then when the recession is done again make you think its still going so they can make more money off you.

 

[Cfabar1]

Does anyone else see the really fast turnaround of ROFR meaning that we are nowhere near bottom yet? As long as that continues, I think people will keep testing the waters….

Maybe the DVC budget has been cut to pay for Hulu (and also to keep parks employees hired, and adding jobs!).

 

[farmermax13]

Just went under contract at $136 for BLT at 375 and feel now that I could have got it lower

 

[Chili327]

Just went under contract at $136 for BLT at 375 and feel now that I could have got it lower

Shoulda, woulda, coulda... Don't sweat it $136 is still a good deal.

 

[tom1944]

Shoulda, woulda, coulda... Don't sweat it $136 is still a good deal.

About a month ago I offered $137 on 5 BLT listings and I never received a counter.

One broker told me my offer was way too low to be considered

 

[Sandisw]

The DiS does not allow for sale posts so we ask that you don’t specific details of current listings, because there is no way for us to know if it is your own listing or not.

Thank you.

 

[farmermax13]

So sorry! New to this forum. Totally understand

 

[Disney_David]

June, July, August, September = brutal
April, May, October = tolerable
November - March = wonderful / of too cold

We live here and love the winter as we can roll out our winter Disney wear The problem as others have stated is, Florida weather is a box of chocolates. It hit 30s last year, I have never seen it that cold. But it could also be 9

Many years ago, we only had the silver pass because I vowed never to go to the parks in summer. Now I go several days a week all year long. Still doesn’t get any better in summer, so I don’t usually hang around long

 

[DVCanadian]

Thought I would line up your prognostications against the data currently on P.1 of pangyal's ROFR thread
( Looks like your VB prediction will be tested at $46, OKW did hit 80, and VGF hit $137.5 New Lows will be tested at BCV, BWV, PVB, SSR, and VB

still a long way to go to get down to all time lows for OKW, BCV, BWV, and SSR.

 

[DonMacGregor]

June, July, August, September = Satan's Armpit

Fixed that for ya...

 

[sleepymouse]

I have only been to WDW twice and both times were in late August, a.k.a. Satan’s Armpit. Also, my youngest got Covid on our last visit and gave it to myself and my husband. And yes, I just bought my first DVC contract to return many more times

 

[Chili327]

I have only been to WDW twice And yes, I just bought my first DVC contract to return many more times

Amen… Ive never been to Orlando, and i just bought a contract as well.

 

[kboo]

June, July, August, September = brutal
April, May, October = tolerable
November - March = wonderful / of too cold

I have only been to WDW twice and both times were in late August, a.k.a. Satan’s Armpit. Also, my youngest got Covid on our last visit and gave it to myself and my husband. And yes, I just bought my first DVC contract to return many more times

We bought DVC to go in late August-Labor Day (low crowds, 2 birthdays) and so OF COURSE we didn't get enough points because then we went in February, April, December and saw how much better the weather was...

That said, I can never resist taking pictures of early AM MK where it's still cool and crowds are super low. We take an afternoon pool break during Satan's Armpit times. Last year we had the trifecta of a Halloween party, MM, and F&W, plus low crowds everywhere except F&W. Can't complain.

Epcot festivals: My first one was Flower and Garden and I live in an apartment, so I think F&G is my favorite. Then Festival of the Arts, and probably F&W last because it's usually so crowded (when we are there over Labor Day).

@sleepymouse - 3/4 of us got COVID at WDW during Omicron 1.0. Then on another trip in August, the remaining 1/4 got it. Still looking at contracts and resorts and trying to decide what we want to do next, because there will be a "next"... just have to see what happens with the banking industry right now, and what it may do to DVC prices. We have enough points that our trips are planned for 2023 but hoping to do a big family trip again in 2024.

 

[sleepymouse]

We bought DVC to go in late August-Labor Day (low crowds, 2 birthdays) and so OF COURSE we didn't get enough points because then we went in February, April, December and saw how much better the weather was...

That said, I can never resist taking pictures of early AM MK where it's still cool and crowds are super low. We take an afternoon pool break during Satan's Armpit times. Last year we had the trifecta of a Halloween party, MM, and F&W, plus low crowds everywhere except F&W. Can't complain.

Epcot festivals: My first one was Flower and Garden and I live in an apartment, so I think F&G is my favorite. Then Festival of the Arts, and probably F&W last because it's usually so crowded (when we are there over Labor Day).

@sleepymouse - 3/4 of us got COVID at WDW during Omicron 1.0. Then on another trip in August, the remaining 1/4 got it. Still looking at contracts and resorts and trying to decide what we want to do next, because there will be a "next"... just have to see what happens with the banking industry right now, and what it may do to DVC prices. We have enough points that our trips are planned for 2023 but hoping to do a big family trip again in 2024.

In my opinion, low crowds are where it's at. That's why we also travel the late August time frame. I am much better with heat than crowds. With all that being said though, I will be taking my first WDW trip in December this year. I want to go at least once for the holidays. I plan to wake up Christmas morning and sit with a cup of coffee on my balcony overlooking the Savannah.

 

[tom1944]

In my opinion, low crowds are where it's at. That's why we also travel the late August time frame. I am much better with heat than crowds. With all that being said though, I will be taking my first WDW trip in December this year. I want to go at least once for the holidays. I plan to wake up Christmas morning and sit with a cup of coffee on my balcony overlooking the Safari.

That is our plan for our second contract. Points for 5 days every other Christmas week.

I want my wife to decide which resort she would like between AKV, BRV, CCV or BWV for those 5 days.

AKV and CCV have the lodge which would be nice. AKV also has the Savannah view which she would love. I have concern about the CCV rooms being converted from regular hotel rooms, so we need to go see them. It does have a significant number of additional years though. BRV and BWV have the shorter expiration date and if we plan to use those points alternate years that has to be a consideration.

And of course, BLT will also be given consideration.

 

[kboo]

That is our plan for our second contract. Points for 5 days every other Christmas week.

I want my wife to decide which resort she would like between AKV, BRV, CCV or BWV for those 5 days.

AKV and CCV have the lodge which would be nice. AKV also has the Savannah view which she would love. I have concern about the CCV rooms being converted from regular hotel rooms, so we need to go see them. It does have a significant number of additional years though. BRV and BWV have the shorter expiration date and if we plan to use those points alternate years that has to be a consideration.

And of course, BLT will also be given consideration.

Home resort (and point chart!) matters for Christmas week. And AKV, BRV, CCV are among my favorites during that time. BWV has really good point charts, overall, for standard rooms. BLT decorations are not as amazing as the resorts you quoted, *but* they will have access to amazing fireworks views for the Christmas parties and also NYE. And Top of the World lounge is often open only to DVCers staying at BLT during those times (and sometimes closes on NYE itself for paid events). So if fireworks are your thing, then BLT may also be a good choice.

For holiday decorations and vibe alone, though, my favorites are CCV/BRV and VGF with AKV next.

 

[ocdb8r1]

Does anyone else see the really fast turnaround of ROFR meaning that we are nowhere near bottom yet? As long as that continues, I think people will keep testing the waters….

I don't know if it means we are nowhere near bottom, but my read is resale volume is slowing. Disney hasn't been buying back much if anything for a couple of months now...the only reason I can think of for the rapid ROFR turnaround times is that there are just less contracts in the queue for them to process.

Given the volume of contracts still listed for sale, I don't think that bodes well for sellers.

 

[tom1944]

I don't know if it means we are nowhere near bottom, but my read is resale volume is slowing. Disney hasn't been buying back much if anything for a couple of months now...the only reason I can think of for the rapid ROFR turnaround times is that there are just less contracts in the queue for them to process.

Given the volume of contracts still listed for sale, I don't think that bodes well for sellers.

Last I looked there were about 200 fewer listing.

 

[ocdb8r1]

Last I looked there were about 200 fewer listing.

200 fewer compared to when?

There are currently over 2500 active listings. That's double March 2022. There may be a slight decrease compared to the beginning of the year but they are still at historically high levels. My point was that the market may be approaching a saturation point whereby contracts will just stagnate and stay listed or prices will have to come down further to stimulate more demand.