Where does DVC go from here?

[tjkraz]

I'm the new guy around here and could really use some perspective from those who have been around the block a couple of times.

If I understand my timeline correctly, BCV just opened about a year ago and is already sold out. (Not sure how many rooms it has, so that may be a factor.)

The SSR prospectus includes plans for up to 12 buildings, but only 4 are slated to open in 2004. Has ground been broken for any of the other 8 buildings, or is that still in the planning stages?

What's going on with the "Eagle Pines" resort? Everything I've read on the 'net says "delayed indefinitely", or some such designation. Any construction ongoing, or is that one truly on hold? If it's on hold, why???

As the subject indicates, I'm wondering where DVC goes from here. With BCV selling out as quickly as it did, and SSR being the only property currently available, do they have enough resorts in the pipe to meet the current demand? I can't imagine that these buildings can be thrown up in 6 months, can they? Even with DVC exercising ROFR on many resales, could they be headed for a point in the next year or so where they have nothing to sell?

And furthermore, what happens 10 or 20 years from now? If DVC presently has 80 or 90 thousand members with ownership at 6 resorts (not even counting SSR), there would seem to be a lot of room to attract additional WDW guests to the program. Will the DVC resorts someday outnumber the non-DVC resorts?

Curious to hear your opinions...
Tim

 

[Disney Doll]

It seems like the DVC resorts go up pretty fast,IMHO. Or, maybe they are good at keeping it a secret until a little ways along in the building process so it just SEEMS like they go up fast!!!!

I think you'll see a couple more DVC resorts go up at WDW...probably Eagle Pines(for a golfing one) and one near the MK, I would imagine.After that, I am not sure. As good as we DVCers think it is, there are people who go to WDW once and never feel the need to go again , or at least don't feel the need to go very frequently . My guess is that the market will reach a saturation point.

 

[DeeP]

I think with the change in the contract ending date at SSR, DVC has now entered Phase 2 and there will be a couple more DVC resorts built with the later contract ending date. I agree with Disney Doll, probably EP and another hotel DVC resort close to a park, either MK or AKL.

 

[tjkraz]

Any more opinions on this? Doc?

Speculation welcome. I'm mostly curious to see what others think is going to happen--not just hard facts.

If there were 6 DVC resorts in roughly 10 resorts, will there be 10-12 by the end of the next decade? Any more plans for non-Orlando resorts?

 

[vernon]

I don't see anymore non Orlando results. Paris, HK, Beijing are all majority owned by companies other than Disney, Aneheim has very limited ground and any land would be, IMHO prohibitively expensive to put to DVC use. HH and Vero, while great resorts, were slow to sell and I think the problems with those resorts effectively ends any non themepark DVC resorts.

I think EP will come into existance, but much depends on the success rate of SSR as to when and if that happens ( as well as any further DVC resorts). IMHO the longer interest rates and share prices remain at these low levels the more people will be looking for other "investments" for their money. IMHO this type of prepaid vacation/real estate "interest" makes a lot of sense for anyone with some spare cash, but maybe not enough to buy a second home. With continued global unrest, I think it likely many Americans will continue to "stay at home" in the US for their vacations and the long term investment/commitment for a timeshare in the US will look an attractive option.

 

[Desperado]

If demand for off site locations increases with the addition of SSR members and members with longevity wanting an alternative to WDW every year, and HH and Vero hard to get into then we'll see another offsite resort. I think future member demand will drive the decisions, not past performance of offsite sales. Who knows how the future travel market will shape up given world events.

 

[Dean]

I see SSR as the last DVC resort, wish I didn't.

 

[JimC]

I posted this on an Eagle Pines thread, but I thought it might belong here as well. Just my rambling thoughts.

BCV created tremendous interest in DVC both for direct purchases from Disney (note how quickly BCV sold out) and for resale market.

I believe Eagle Pines will be built if SSR sells fast. The concept for it sounds interesting. If SSR does not sell quickly, then EP may be held back, possibly as the large resort anchor for a DVC III?.

I anticipate that other popular resorts like AKL may see modest sized DVC additions in the future. I would consider the Contemporary, Poly and GF as candidates. But I question whether those sites can support the additional development.

They could build a standalone monorail DVC resort using the TTC to Epcot line and build somewhere along that corridor. That is an underutilized area. But I believe there are strong economic reasons to add DVC to existing resorts where restaurants and all of the associated service infrastructure are already in place. Established infrastructure, I believe, was the element that propelled SSR to reality so quickly.

If the fifth park project gets a green light there will be ancillary development around it for resorts and the like. I supsect DVC would be part of those plans as well.

 

[timC]

There's still a lot of "blank canvas" at WDW, and JimC makes a good point about a potential 5th theme park driving additional development. So, there's plenty of room at WDW for more DVC resorts. It's going to be a slow process. We need to be patient.

Outside of WDW, DVC loses a lot of value-add (unless they change the 11/7 window, yikes!). It's not clear what is Disney's commitment to investing in the travel/vacation industry. BCV, SSR, and the EP (announcement) demonstrate a strong short-term investment but long-term nobody knows. New leadership with a new vision could take DIS in new directions, that could dramatically expand their focus on the travel industry pulling DVC along for the ride. I'm certain there are people on the inside with a long-term vision for DVC, that includes a future beyond SSR and EP.

 

[bcvillastwo]

We are relatively new to DVC and our home resort is BCV. Right off the top of my head I can't remember exactly how many rooms BCV has but as I recall it's one of the smaller on-site DVC locations. That said, by all accounts it has sold out pretty fast. In my opinion, the quick sell out is partly location and partly the number of units/total points available for sale.

I'd be curious what the relative sales rate for BCV is compared to the other DVC on-site properties. It occurs to me that that if this information was available fo each location then there might be some basis for making an educated guess for how rapidly SSR may sell. Then, I think it would be possible to make some educated quesses about possible future DVC on-site locations.

Absent that information (if I had the data I would do an analysis myself) it occurs to me that if SSR sells reasonably well through each phase of construction it would indicate that demand is still high and prompt Disney to consider other on-site locations.

Frankly, I think SSR is going to sell well and I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't several other locations being considered. I think all of the suggestions/opinions made up to this point are reasonable guesses.

Remember, Disney is in business to make money so as long as DVC makes sense financially I think Disney will continue to build. Why wouldn't they? Don't foget what happened at the off-site locations (sales wise) and the ensuing decisions that Disney made about future off-site locations.

So to circle back around, knowing what the sales data is/was at each DVC on-site location is important information to use as benchmarks agains the SSR sales data. I have no doubt that DVC/Disney has this information readily available and that they are already using it to guage the interest in SSR.

 

[Desperado]

I donno, pre 9/11 and post are two different demand scenarios. Who knows whats next.