Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Grumpy by Birth]

During the first few months of the pandemic, DVC was waiving ROFR on everything. With basically all of the parks, resorts, restaurants, shops, etc. closed worldwide, they were hemorrhaging cash, so it makes sense they wouldn't buy back during that time.

I'm just curious why, pre-COVID, they weren't taking the opposite approach (i.e., buy back everything). I understand that they ROFR contracts for points they "need" (i.e., someone wants to buy at a resort and they don't have the points to sell). But given that the recent resale restrictions are clearly aimed at steering all buyers to direct (and assuming they have deep enough pockets again once we get past COVID), they could simply buy back all resale contracts and then direct would be the only game in town.

Now this comes with risk on their part. They could be left holding a bunch of points they can't sell. But for every contract that they buy back through ROFR, there was someone who wanted to buy those points. If they can't get them any other way than direct because DVC always exercised ROFR, wouldn't a lot of those potential buyers be pushed to direct because that would be the only way they could buy?

This is not something that I'd like to see happen, but I'm curious about everyone's thoughts on why we haven't seen this already (again, discounting COVID circumstances) if the goal is to wipe out the resale market and have everyone buying direct.

I get that only buying back contracts at a low price point maximized their profit margin when they flipped those points for direct. But if direct was the only possible way to buy because they took all resale contracts in ROFR, would the volume of buyers make up for the fact that they might be paying more for some of those resale contracts they ROFRd? They would still always be paying less than they would charge once the points were converted back to direct.

 

[Jmazzuca243]

What I don’t get is who is buying these contracts? At those prices I would go direct and avoid the hassle.

You are still saving some money by buying resale. For the VGF contract, you are still saving $37 pp. I’ll agree that It’s a lot lower than historical levels, but it’s still $3k in savings. For some people, that additional cost might be the determining factor. And the one group of people i think you are forgetting about are the brand new DVC members. They have to purchase a minimum of 125 points which could be too difficult compared to a smaller resale contract. So in this case, it maybe a smaller cost difference between direct and resale, but it’s a significant reduction in overall cost.

Resale - 80 points at 219 - 17,500
Direct - 80 points at 255 - 20,400
Direct - 125 points at 255 - 32,000

 

[Pens Fan]

You are still saving some money by buying resale. For the VGF contract, you are still saving $37 pp. I’ll agree that It’s a lot lower than historical levels, but it’s still $3k in savings. For some people, that additional cost might be the determining factor. And the one group of people i think you are forgetting about are the brand new DVC members. They have to purchase a minimum of 125 points which could be too difficult compared to a smaller resale contract. So in this case, it maybe a smaller cost difference between direct and resale, but it’s a significant reduction in overall cost.

Resale - 80 points at 219 - 17,500
Direct - 80 points at 255 - 20,400
Direct - 125 points at 255 - 32,000

You are assuming someone only wanted GF (which will probably be the case for whoever does make an offer on this one). But if someone is flexible on their home resort, there are many direct options for less than $219 pp (some significantly less). I think that's what is hard for a lot of people to understand, myself included. The only place I would even consider paying that kind of money for a resale contract would be VGC and then only if we lived on the west coast which we do not.

Your point about a new member having to purchase 125 direct points is a valid one. Though I'd also have to point out that 80 points by itself isn't going to get you very far at GF without a whole lot of banking and borrowing. But again, maybe someone just really, really loves GF and doesn't come very often (or is ok with short stays in studios) . Still, I can't wrap my head around $219 pp for a resale contract.

Nope.

 

[VdoesDisney]

You are still saving some money by buying resale. For the VGF contract, you are still saving $37 pp. I’ll agree that It’s a lot lower than historical levels, but it’s still $3k in savings. For some people, that additional cost might be the determining factor. And the one group of people i think you are forgetting about are the brand new DVC members. They have to purchase a minimum of 125 points which could be too difficult compared to a smaller resale contract. So in this case, it maybe a smaller cost difference between direct and resale, but it’s a significant reduction in overall cost.

Resale - 80 points at 219 - 17,500
Direct - 80 points at 255 - 20,400
Direct - 125 points at 255 - 32,000

That’s fair, the ideal buyer for these is likely someone who wants a very specific resort and under 125 points, I just struggle so much with these prices.

 

[Jmazzuca243]

You are assuming someone only wanted GF (which will probably be the case for whoever does make an offer on this one). But if someone is flexible on their home resort, there are many direct options for less than $219 pp (some significantly less). I think that's what is hard for a lot of people to understand, myself included. The only place I would even consider paying that kind of money for a resale contract would be VGC and then only if we lived on the west coast which we do not.

Your point about a new member having to purchase 125 direct points is a valid one. Though I'd also have to point out that 80 points by itself isn't going to get you very far at GF without a whole lot of banking and borrowing. But again, maybe someone just really, really loves GF and doesn't come very often (or is ok with short stays in studios) . Still, I can't wrap my head around $219 pp for a resale contract.

Nope.

You should always buy where you want to stay. If you want to stay at VGF, you need to buy at VGF. You might have a chance for a 1BDR at 7 months, but the points required would cost a significant more amount. You could make your same comment about how its hard to understand why anyone would pay any amount more than the cheapest resort and use SAPs. But many dont like the availability of resorts at 7 months and the next couple of years are going to have limited availability at 7 months with the surplus of points.

 

[Pens Fan]

You should always buy where you want to stay. If you want to stay at VGF, you need to buy at VGF. You might have a chance for a 1BDR at 7 months, but the points required would cost a significant more amount. You could make your same comment about how its hard to understand why anyone would pay any amount more than the cheapest resort and use SAPs. But many dont like the availability of resorts at 7 months and the next couple of years are going to have limited availability at 7 months with the surplus of points.

Oh I agree about buying where you want to stay, but I'm not going to overpay to do it. There are plenty of resorts we would be happy to purchase as a home resort. If someone is dead set on GF or bust, they might think it's worth it. Good for them. It just wouldn't be me.

I'm honestly not trying to ruffle your feathers here. I'm just pointing out that there are many options for buying direct that would be cheaper, have no restrictions, give you the direct perks, and you'd have your points in your account in a matter of hours after signing on the dotted line. But if it's GF or nothing, then hey - go for it! There's a contract out there for everyone.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

To the moon with doge

 

[princesscinderella]

It’s definitely getting crazy high resale. I have noticed that inventory is getting a little bit better because people aren’t buying as quickly since they are getting priced so close to direct. Unfortunately it creates a double edge sword because if prices are higher in resale and driving direct purchase then ROFR is going to increase for Disney to fill the demand thus keeping prices higher for resale.

 

[CastAStone]

Are the resales prices in chart quoted actual sales prices? If so, why the divergence from rofr reports? Esp for akv? Is that because most don’t report their purchases on disboards and it’s only the disboards readers/savvy bargain hunters reporting?

Basically yes. Also the report comes from DVCRM which typically lists the most expensive contracts whereas people on the ROFR thread are buying from a variety of sites, many of which push lower pricing to drive faster sales.

 

[RoseGold]

I'm just curious why, pre-COVID, they weren't taking the opposite approach (i.e., buy back everything).

Because they had several million RIV points, several million Aulani points, and reflections and DL tower starting construction. They don’t want a $70/point spread from ROFR. They want you to buy restricted points from the developer, the obvious business model, or at least they did then.

Reflections still had construction equipment until very recently. That’s a long time later.

 

[Lorana]

Reflections

Every time someone mentions this resort it makes me sad inside. I know it wasn’t for everyone, but a Wilderness themed resort with cabins, treehouses and a LAZY RIVER is all I ever wanted in a single DVC resort, and now it won’t happen. Because we all know that Disney doesn’t keep the same ideas if and when they come back again to a new resort. :-(

 

[RoseGold]

Every time someone mentions this resort it makes me sad inside. I know it wasn’t for everyone, but a Wilderness themed resort with cabins, treehouses and a LAZY RIVER is all I ever wanted in a single DVC resort, and now it won’t happen. Because we all know that Disney doesn’t keep the same ideas if and when they come back again to a new resort. :-(

Lots of lazy rivers nearby cheaper than Disney!

 

[Lorana]

Lots of lazy rivers nearby cheaper than Disney!

Well, except that I cannot trade my DVC points into those property, nor are they Disney or onsite, which is my desire behind a Wilderness-themed DVC with a lazy river. If you could take SAB and plop it at CCV/BRV, I'd be in heaven.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Because they had several million RIV points, several million Aulani points, and reflections and DL tower starting construction. They don’t want a $70/point spread from ROFR. They want you to buy restricted points from the developer, the obvious business model, or at least they did then.

Reflections still had construction equipment until very recently. That’s a long time later.

That's a good point about the resorts in active sales being essentially 100% profit rather than having to subtract the purchase price from ROFR and only making the difference. So, their strategy seems to be striking a balance between steering new direct owners to non-sold-out resorts, while buying back sold-out resorts if they anticipate the need for those points to meet demand from people who want to buy direct specifically at that location.

The bigger incentives to buy at Riviera make it not that much more than some other resorts, but they still have a bigger profit margin because they already own those Riviera points, but might have to buy back points at one of the other resorts to fulfill a direct contract there, reducing their profits significantly if someone is buying at a sold-out resort.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Oh I agree about buying where you want to stay, but I'm not going to overpay to do it. There are plenty of resorts we would be happy to purchase as a home resort. If someone is dead set on GF or bust, they might think it's worth it. Good for them. It just wouldn't be me.

I'm honestly not trying to ruffle your feathers here. I'm just pointing out that there are many options for buying direct that would be cheaper, have no restrictions, give you the direct perks, and you'd have your points in your account in a matter of hours after signing on the dotted line. But if it's GF or nothing, then hey - go for it! There's a contract out there for everyone.

For me it was VGF (small contract) or nothing. And nothing is what I was seeing for resale VGF. What is/was out there was overpriced for resale and not much more for direct. YMMV.

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

Am I nuts or is that extremely high!?

Edit: Link Didn't add link originally since it wasn't a sponsored broker

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Am I nuts or is that extremely high!?

FYI: Add a link to your post or it'll get deleted. I went through that last week when I screenshot a couple listings from DVC Resale Market.

And yes, that is ridiculous. Direct is $295 with a 25 point minimum for an add on...

 

[CastAStone]

Am I nuts or is that extremely high!? View attachment 574839

Yes. $350 per point is extortion. It’s also way above direct (although Direct has no points) and above any reasonable break even metric.

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

FYI: Add a link to your post or it'll get deleted. I went through that last week when I screenshot a couple listings from DVC Resale Market.

Good to know. I wasn't sure since it was a non sponsored broker so I didn't put it to avoid it getting deleted.

 

[Jmazzuca243]

Am I nuts or is that extremely high!?

Is it high? Compared to other resorts - Yes it is.
Is it high for VGC? Maybe

I have been trying to get on the waitlist for VGC for a couple of years now. I still cant get on it. Finding a resale contract at VGC is hard enough. Trying to find a small contract is impossible. Im honestly surprised the resale market on VGC is not higher since you cant buy it direct. The supply of VGC is so small, the price could even be higher than direct.

People will comment that this is way over priced since direct is $295. But since you cant buy VGC direct, you have no basis to compare it to.