Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Mouse511]

She (?) didn’t make a post about it but they blanked all their posts and are now posting somewhere else.

Make you wonder ............

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

She (?) didn’t make a post about it but they blanked all their posts and are now posting somewhere else.

Ah, I thought they had posted somewhere. I had seen some of the blanked posts, but they had posted more after blanking some previous posts, so I wasn't sure if they were leaving or not.

 

[bookwormde]

Boo! Such a bummer but I hope you are well and have simply found something else to take your time. You have been appreciated!

Suffice to say that I felt that I was no longer free to provide my analysis and commentary with integrity on Dis

 

[UF_Scott]

Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track



Resort ROFR listing difference

AKV 109 119 -10

AUL 75 105 -30

BLT 147 159 -12

BCV 134 152 -18

BWV 120 132 -12

BRV 93 113 -20

CCV 139 155 -16

VGF 167 182 -15

HH 76 81 -5

OKW 105 105 0

Poly 135 155 -20

SS 104 114 -10

VB 65 76 -11

Thank you SOOOO much for doing this type of research. I hope to finally be in a position to buy into DVC sometime near the end of this year. I've been researching things, including this feed since it started, and I love having an idea what a truly fair offer would be when the time finally comes...

 

[UF_Scott]

Suffice to say that I felt that I was no longer free to provide my analysis and commentary with integrity on Dis

And right after reading your previous post from a few weeks ago and commenting how awesome it was, I get to the one that say you will not be posting anymore... "Isn't it ironic... Don't you think?" - Alanis Morissette

 

[kmorlock]

Thank you @bookwormde!!! You have been so generous with your research and analysis. You will be missed by many.

 

[kmorlock]

As for the price of DVC, I’m no expert, just always looking for that “unicorn” listing. From the sites I view, the volume of resale listings seems to have grown a lot. I would think this influx would be like flooding the market and would decrease price per point sales but, I’m seeing just the opposite on many like OKW.

 

[PhillyDVC]

Going through this thread almost a year later. It’s crazy what people thought was going to happen to DVC resale prices. I would’ve never predicted the complete opposite as prices are at an all time high. The “addonitis” side of me wishes these price drops actually happened.

You may very well be right. To be clear, I think that prices will fall to about 50% from their highs, which puts BWV at about $65 and BLT at about $75-80.

So here's the deal...I actually do think that the shut down (in some form or fashion) is going to last 4-6 months. I think that the damage to the economy will be irreparable in the short term and only somewhat devastating in the long term. I think there is less than a 1% chance of a V-shaped recovery, I think it's going to take a decade to recover from this mess. Finally, I think the number of people willing to scoop up bargain-priced DVC contracts is shrinking by the day.

All in all it's about as pessimistic a view as one can have about our current and future economic situation. I'll be more than happy to come back on here in a year and say I was wrong. But something tells me I won't have to.

 

[Hopfather28]

Going through this thread almost a year later. It’s crazy what people thought was going to happen to DVC resale prices. I would’ve never predicted the complete opposite as prices are at an all time high. The “addonitis” side of me wishes these price drops actually happened.

There was a small dip but it was short lived to be certain and likely only caused by the fact that no ROFR meant people were lowballing distressed owners who wanted to offload.

 

[Kickstart]

Yeah, I think I posted earlier in this very thread how I was pretty sure prices would drop over the winter. Boy was I wrong about that.

I got lucky. I put in some low offers mid-summer and one was accepted. I remember thinking no need to offer anything but lowball offers as I'd have plenty of options later in the year. My accepted offer was submitted when ROFR was on hold but was still pending as it came back. I feel like I just skidded under the wire. I bought BLT, and it appears nothing under $150pp is safe right now.

 

[Kickstart]

So, what are everyone's thoughts on where DVC prices are headed now?

My guess is there will be renewed demand later this year, and into 2022, as those who stayed employed and built up savings (and/or saw their investments grow), and now with "covid cabin" fever create a surge of "irrational exuberance" on vacation spending.

On the contrarian side:

• A good stock market correction could curtail the desire of the group above to spend more than typical on vacations.
• There were lot of homes purchased this last year - I suspect people in this group aren't as likely to also purchase a timeshare over the next couple of years.
• A lot of the country is still struggling, and this next stimulus is probably the last
• DVC is overpriced (IMHO) - and with the cost cutting I wonder how quickly Disney can bring back enough of the magic. I feel like the cost/value ratio was getting questionable over the last few years (prior to covid) , and now I question it even more.

Between these two pros/cons I'm thinking prices will stay high through mid 2022, but then flatten out (with resale possibly correcting some) for the next few years after that as Disney struggles to justify their premium prices.

But, who knows... I was completely wrong in my assessment over the summer

 

[lovethesun12]

So, what are everyone's thoughts on where DVC prices are headed now?

My guess is there will be renewed demand later this year, and into 2022, as those who stayed employed and built up savings (and/or saw their investments grow), and now with "covid cabin" fever create a surge of "irrational exuberance" on vacation spending.

On the contrarian side:

• A good stock market correction could curtail the desire of the group above to spend more than typical on vacations.
• There were lot of homes purchased this last year - I suspect people in this group aren't as likely to also purchase a timeshare over the next couple of years.
• A lot of the country is still struggling, and this next stimulus is probably the last
• DVC is overpriced (IMHO) - and with the cost cutting I wonder how quickly Disney can bring back enough of the magic. I feel like the cost/value ratio was getting questionable over the last few years (prior to covid) , and now I question it even more.

Between these two pros/cons I'm thinking prices will stay high through mid 2022, but then flatten out (with resale possibly correcting some) for the next few years after that as Disney struggles to justify their premium prices.

But, who knows... I was completely wrong in my assessment over the summer

At this point I realize it's impossible to predict but fun to discuss at least

The negatives are that the pandemic is not over, and while I am definitely way more optimistic about the whole thing it's hard to predict when it will be over (and considering it over might look different for everyone). If people are still worried about traveling internationally that could cause WDW to offer large discounts which could potentially impact DVC.

That said vaccines are also a pretty huge factor and they could be a game changer. If vaccine passports became a thing (probably won't) I do think that would make many more confident in traveling, on the other hand it seems vaccines are rolling out so fast the talk of vaccine passports probably won't even get started before anyone who wants a vaccine can have one.

Either way I do feel confident enough to buy right now though and have recently gotten rejected at ROFR, lol. I wouldn't necessarily expect an increase in my contract or anything but even with a drop in cost I think the value would be there at the right price.

 

[Ruttangel]

So, what are everyone's thoughts on where DVC prices are headed now?

Hi @Kickstart!
I think there is potential for a different impact on resale prices by resort and over different timescales.

In 2020 you could get BLT for $120 (as you know!!!) but with ROFR being strong and direct pricing now putting it at $245ppp then it is now lucky to pass at $150.
I think the monorail resort pricing will continue to increase over next 2-5 years, probably out-pacing other resorts with the exception of CCV which I think will pick up over time as well.

My opinion on 2042 resorts is that Disney will stop buying back altogether at some point before 2030 and prices will take such a dive that owners will decide just to keep until the bitter end (unless the dues become truly insane). I don't think an extension would be offered, more likely owners might get $x a point discount off a new property with it's shiny new point chart.
The exception is OKW - I think Disney will start buying all those back so they can flip them to 2057 contract.

The contracts ending in 2054-2057 have some great point charts and might get a lot of demand if new resorts come online with very high point charts.

That leaves RIV and AUL, I've been wrong about RIV so far as the resale prices are still high, even with the restriction I think it is worth more than AUL, so probably will be $120 or so for quite a while.

In the UK they have announced an increase in business tax from 19% to 25% and with limited pay rises then disposable income will be going down. Will it be enough to reduce travel to WDW, probably not as people are craving escapism and new memories for the next 2-3 years.

 

[Frederic Civish]

I'm actually quite disappointed that prices didn't drop enough so that I could get that great deal that I have been looking for. I want more. I hoped it would cost less.

I should also say that it surprises me that the 'point rental market' appears to have remained fairly strong. Am I wrong on that?

I ended up taking back some points from a few people who cancelled, and I refunded their money, then I used some of those points. We made trips to DW in Feb 2020, July 2020, Oct 2020, Jan 2021 and March 2021. I could have rented out a lot of those points, but we were enjoying them too much.

We just stayed at Boardwalk for the first time, and I loved it.

 

[Aussie RJ]

I should also say that it surprises me that the 'point rental market' appears to have remained fairly strong. Am I wrong on that?

You’re absolutely correct, at least in my experience. I’m easily renting points for $15 - $18pp. We now have regulars who are constantly asking for points. The disappointment of missing out on travel has had its advantages.

 

[ELMC]

Going through this thread almost a year later. It’s crazy what people thought was going to happen to DVC resale prices. I would’ve never predicted the complete opposite as prices are at an all time high. The “addonitis” side of me wishes these price drops actually happened.

It's been a year....I was wrong.

 

[sethschroeder]

It's been a year....I was wrong.

Me too not a bad thing though as my contract keeps its value then that I have left.

 

[Evita_W]

Here is the list of average resale prices for https://www.dvcresalemarket.com.

View attachment 482372

Is there a chart like this for Grand Californian villas?

 

[JETSDAD]

Is there a chart like this for Grand Californian villas?

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2021/

 

[Evita_W]

View attachment 567131
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2021/

And Grand Californian appears to have increased sine February, looks the average is now about $250, which is well over 3 times what we paid when we bought in.

Of course nothing for Grand Californian is available direct and there is an extremely long waiting list.

On paper it would make sense to sell and buy Riviera, even direct and get about 100 points more (well maybe less depending on what the new incentives are), but we love owning Grand Californian. We just added on at Riviera though and went with direct, as the price difference between direct with the incentives and resale was so minimal.