Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[holyrita]

Case and point that Disney is not doing ROFR like normal.

From the ROFR thread

Only been 2 contracts that low in the ROFR threads in the last year to pass prior to COVID19

So grateful to have had our AKV contract pass while Disney was not exercising ROFR

 

[cmarsh31]

8/24 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280% of average

I see so many that would work for us, but with prices on small contracts much higher than when we bought in less than three years ago, it's pretty easy to keep waiting. Maybe we'll missed out... but I'm sticking with my budget.

 

[bookwormde]

8/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average

 

[becauseimnew]

I see so many that would work for us, but with prices on small contracts much higher than when we bought in less than three years ago, it's pretty easy to keep waiting. Maybe we'll missed out... but I'm sticking with my budget.

I can’t believe the prices of small contracts. I am seeing more smaller contracts up for sale. They go pending super fast, I can’t believe people are willing to pay those prices.

 

[cmarsh31]

I can’t believe the prices of small contracts. I am seeing more smaller contracts up for sale. They go pending super fast, I can’t believe people are willing to pay those prices.

Plus with the current borrowing restrictions, unless you're adding on to a same contract, 50 Poly points or 25 SSR points aren't going to do you any good... I was thinking of a small contract to use at 7 months, or bank/borrow every other year. Right now, all of our AKV points get used for 2bd value stays but a studio here or there would be nice for long weekend!

 

[CLE2WDW]

Looking at the ROFR board it seems like the 2042s are finally coming back to reality. I saw a BCV contract cleared ROFR in the 130s and that hasn’t happened in a while. Quite frankly it baffles me that BCV contracts are still listed in the 150s (outside of small contracts). As they near under 20 years of useful life I expect prices to fall fairly rapidly because there will likely be little support from DVC on the ROFR side. It would be hard to fathom someone buying BCV through DVC at $230/point for under 20 years of use. Just my two cents.

 

[sethschroeder]

As they near under 20 years of useful life I expect prices to fall fairly rapidly

Doubtful outside of VGC it likely is the top resort within DVC and is probably the #2 location to buy where you never use your points anywhere else. Its also a tiny resort with only 282 rooms.

20-21 years is still a very long time and when people buy they typically are worried about cost savings over a 5-10 year span. What happens in a year 15-20-25-30 is of less consequence.

someone buying BCV through DVC at $230/point

Well there are a few people who do buy direct but ROFR also does not control the price.

it baffles me that BCV contracts are still listed in the 150s

What are you comparing it to? Remember at BCV rooms are cheaper, MFs are cheaper, total cost is cheaper, and roughly 50% of buyers likely only need 10-20 years out of DVC in their minds either because kids will grow up or they are retirement age.

As always my 9 night October Trip point comparison (I don't travel then just a good "mid cost" season):
BCV Studio: 148 Points
BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC]
VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase)
Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase)
RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase)

BCV 2BR: 397 Points
BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase)
VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase)
Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase)
RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase)

Lets not even forget to mention it is the only resort that could be treated as having a mini water park attached to it.

 

[CastAStone]

BCV is less than halfway through its 40 years. It’s certainly the most expensive resale resort by most metrics, and it’s the worst value, direct or resale, by almost any metric (vs renting, vs cash rates, factoring in inflation and opportunity cost, not factoring in inflation and opportunity cost, etc).

I’ve run a tremendous amount of calculations on BCV and here are my takeaways:

Vs cash from Disney, when factoring in opportunity cost and inflation, there still a lot of value at current prices for studios and two bedrooms. Obviously it varies by day, but it is still possible to save as much as 50% versus cash rates with studios. 1 bedrooms are about break even when factoring in opportunity cost and inflation.

Vs renting points, BCV doesn’t make much sense to own at current prices, no matter what type of room you want to stay in (again, factoring in inflation and opportunity cost).

BUT

At certain travel times, it can be difficult to rent points for Beach Club Villas. Plus not everyone wants to rent points. Plus lots of people don’t like to factor in opportunity cost, which makes the math look better, so the comparisons aren’t as brutal as they are here.

And finally, don’t forget, a lot of people buy DVC because it’s a thing they want, just like they would a couch or a shirt. A Vineyard Vines t-shirt is obviously and objectively a horrendous “deal” compared to other shirts. But you’ll see dozens of them every day at Beach Club Villas. If that’s why you want it, then none of this really matters.

Anyhoo, if we can find a really good deal, we’re going to buy eventually. I don’t expect prices to fall significantly faster than any other resort for the next couple years.

 

[ForWhomTheMouseTolls]

I don’t understand spending as much as people do on Beach Club. Why didn’t Disney give it a full 50 year contract when they built the villas?

 

[sethschroeder]

I don’t understand spending as much as people do on Beach Club. Why didn’t Disney give it a full 50 year contract when they built the villas?

All expirations at the same time I think was the idea then they realized it would be better just to have a new time period each resort so they could sell it for more.

That's how I understand it.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Plus with the current borrowing restrictions, unless you're adding on to a same contract, 50 Poly points or 25 SSR points aren't going to do you any good... I was thinking of a small contract to use at 7 months, or bank/borrow every other year. Right now, all of our AKV points get used for 2bd value stays but a studio here or there would be nice for long weekend!

Agreed. I've always been surprised there isn't more of a bell curve to prices with the lowest point contracts falling off as they're of little use unless it's your exact UY/resort.

The other thing people don't consider is closing costs. They're kind of negligable when you're buying larger contracts but when only buying 25 points, $485 is $19.40 per point.

As always my 9 night October Trip point comparison (I don't travel then just a good "mid cost" season):
BCV Studio: 148 Points
BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC]
VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase)
Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase)
RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase)

BCV 2BR: 397 Points
BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase)
VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase)
Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase)
RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase)

The problem is that even with the lower points, BCV doesn't end up cheaper due to how the purchase price amortizes into remaining years. This is using last month's resale prices from dvcresalemarket:

BCV Studio: 148 Points - $2074
BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC] - $1788
VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase) - $1773
Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase) - $1865
RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase) - $1830

BCV 2BR: 397 Points - $5564
BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase) - $4557
VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase) - $5278
Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase) - $12698
RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase) - $5173

If you had thrown Boardwalk in though it would have come in below any of the resorts listed... so there is something to be said that not all of the 2042 resorts are crazy overpriced.

 

[ForWhomTheMouseTolls]

All expirations at the same time I think was the idea then they realized it would be better just to have a new time period each resort so they could sell it for more.

That's how I understand it.

Very strange. I’m shocked they went in that direction. Part of the reason why Riviera was attractive is because we do plan our trips up to a year in advance (we have a vacation spreadsheet that goes years out), and we knew we would use it for at least 40 of the next 50 years and then it could go to our daughter.

I’ve stayed at BC multiple times, and can’t get over the black mold I found in our bathrooms two years in a row. Storm Along Bay is a great value, but I can’t imagine paying that dollar amount for access to a water park for 20 years.

 

[sethschroeder]

Agreed. I've always been surprised there isn't more of a bell curve to prices with the lowest point contracts falling off as they're of little use unless it's your exact UY/resort.

The other thing people don't consider is closing costs. They're kind of negligable when you're buying larger contracts but when only buying 25 points, $485 is $19.40 per point.

The problem is that even with the lower points, BCV doesn't end up cheaper due to how the purchase price amortizes into remaining years. This is using last month's resale prices from dvcresalemarket:

BCV Studio: 148 Points - $2074
BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC] - $1788
VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase) - $1773
Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase) - $1865
RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase) - $1830

BCV 2BR: 397 Points - $5564
BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase) - $4557
VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase) - $5278
Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase) - $12698
RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase) - $5173

If you had thrown Boardwalk in though it would have come in below any of the resorts listed... so there is something to be said that not all of the 2042 resorts are crazy overpriced.

Except it's not overpriced per your chart. That is $200-$300 for the 9 nights ($22-$33/night) for what some consider a superior offering.

Plenty of people can justify a fairly small difference.

Not sure what you are doing the math off though? What resale price point for each resort?

In the end have to remember the benefit to value of small resorts is you need less "BCV or the highway" people compared to something with a larger room count.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Except it's not overpriced per your chart. That is $200-$300 for the 9 nights ($22-$33/night) for what some consider a superior offering.

Plenty of people can justify a fairly small difference.

Not sure what you are doing the math off though? What resale price point for each resort?

In the end have to remeber the benefit to value of small resorts is you need less "BCV or the highway" people compared to something with a larger room count.

Resale prices per resort were taken from here:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/
Yes, we can get into what people value and certainly some will pay more for BCV. My only point is that it's more expensive than any of the resorts listed (minus the Poly bungalows) even with the point chart advantages considered.

 

[sethschroeder]

Resale prices per resort were taken from here:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/
Yes, we can get into what people value and certainly some will pay more for BCV. My only point is that it's more expensive than any of the resorts listed (minus the Poly bungalows) even with the point chart advantages considered.

Except it's negligible and not to an extent where prices would plummet like was suggested.

You have the math possibly still how much would BCV need to drop to be cheaper for a studio? Maybe $10?

 

[CastAStone]

Agreed. I've always been surprised there isn't more of a bell curve to prices with the lowest point contracts falling off as they're of little use unless it's your exact UY/resort.

The other thing people don't consider is closing costs. They're kind of negligable when you're buying larger contracts but when only buying 25 points, $485 is $19.40 per point.

The problem is that even with the lower points, BCV doesn't end up cheaper due to how the purchase price amortizes into remaining years. This is using last month's resale prices from dvcresalemarket:

BCV Studio: 148 Points - $2074
BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC] - $1788
VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase) - $1773
Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase) - $1865
RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase) - $1830

BCV 2BR: 397 Points - $5564
BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase) - $4557
VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase) - $5278
Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase) - $12698
RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase) - $5173

If you had thrown Boardwalk in though it would have come in below any of the resorts listed... so there is something to be said that not all of the 2042 resorts are crazy overpriced.

I’m a little confused by your math, but I know that for me, I’d gladly pay $300 Per week more for Beach Club then the other resorts you listed. If we’re not differentiating the resorts based on preferences and amenities, we should all be staying at All Star Movies.

And cash, that room would be $4000. So using your math, it’s still a good deal by comparison. It’s just not the best deal.

If your point is that beach club is an absolutely terrible choice for sleep around points, I don’t think anyone would disagree.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Except it's negligible and not to an extent where prices would plummet like was suggested.

You have the math possibly still how much would BCV need to drop to be cheaper for a studio? Maybe $10?

Irregardless of if it's "negligable" (debatable) the total cost is not cheaper for BCV. That was my only point above.

To bring it to ~$1830 per trip, it would need to go from $146->$111 per point.

I’m a little confused by your math, but I know that for me, I’d gladly pay $300 Per week more for Beach Club then the other resorts you listed. If we’re not differentiating the resorts based on preferences and amenities, we should all be staying at All Star Movies.

And cash, that room would be $4000. So using your math, it’s still a good deal by comparison. It’s just not the best deal.

If your point is that beach club is an absolutely terrible choice for sleep around points, I don’t think anyone would disagree.

I was specifically replying to this along with the examples given.

What are you comparing it to? Remember at BCV rooms are cheaper, MFs are cheaper, total cost is cheaper, and roughly 50% of buyers likely only need 10-20 years out of DVC in their minds either because kids will grow up or they are retirement age.

 

[Dean]

I don’t understand spending as much as people do on Beach Club. Why didn’t Disney give it a full 50 year contract when they built the villas?

As noted, they had them all expiring at the same time likely as an exit strategy. I've personally never understood BCV as to me it's BWV standard view at higher prices but obviously some people don't agree or else it wouldn't be more expensive in spite of the small # of units.

 

[sethschroeder]

Irregardless of if it's "negligable" (debatable) the total cost is not cheaper for BCV. That was my only point above.

To bring it to ~$1830 per trip, it would need to go from $146->$111 per point.


I was specifically replying to this along with the examples given.

Except
You are paying less MFs each year
You are buying BCV less

Remember your math is based on putting equal value on something 22 to 40 years from now.

That is my point some people will take the lower cost now associated with BCV and not worry about a cost in 2042 or after because they only care about the next 10-20 years.

As an example your biggest cost savings in your chart was BLT:
BCV Studio upfront cost - $21,608
BLT Studio upfront cost - $24,850

Annual MFs:
BCV - $1045.38
BLT - $1147.48

Then when all is said and done and you look back the cost comes out to $22-$33/night more after 20 years. To get that savings though you have to continue to use that other contract for another 20 years or cash out for whatever it will be worth when roughly 1/3rd of the resorts expire from the current model and flip in to resale restrictions.

Remember the BCV owner actually has saved money from year 1 to 21 by owning there. The owners of other resorts savings is based on additional time (which is not free) or selling the contract (unknown equation comparing BCV vs BLT in 2030/2035 but we do know BCV is $0 in 2042 with no idea value of BLT).

 

[CarolMN]

As noted, they had them all expiring at the same time likely as an exit strategy. I've personally never understood BCV as to me it's BWV standard view at higher prices but obviously some people don't agree or else it wouldn't be more expensive in spite of the small # of units.

I agree. To me the only difference is SAB, and since we are not pool people, BCV has no appeal, especially since we think BWV has the better location.