Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[CastAStone]

I am wondering if the ROFR contracts that have been taken is making brokers suggest a over $100 per point price?

I think everyone who lost a sub-100 SSR contract went and bought out all the inventory of sub-100s to replace them. I've been tracking SSR and that's what it looked like to me.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

I'm seeing quite a few good contracts at reasonable asking prices for resorts I'm stalking right now:
CCV - 100 points - asking $138
AKV - 216 points - asking $103
SSR - 280 points - asking $95

Nothing earth shattering but all have their 2020 points and it seems there are more and more contracts sitting that are priced well. Tempting to start making offers but I think we are going to see lower prices this Fall and Winter.

 

[CastAStone]

Can we get this thread back on track?

 

[CarolMN]

Can we get this thread back on track?

Thank you.
Yes, please. Argument is now over.

Further argumentative and/or sarcastic posts will be deleted and appropriate infractions issued.

DIS Posting Guidelines

 

[Sandisw]

I deleted posts that were borderline argumentative, sarcastic, and off topic.

Please refrain from those or warnings will have to be issued.

 

[sethschroeder]

So getting back to the point of resale prices what we can start to go off of is:

• When people start planning on trips again (buying resale DVC or selling because they can't go)
• When people from other countries can and will visit again (will UK/CA owners sell if its too far in future)
• Rental pricing (will they take a hit so rental groups sell their contracts/cheap enough to skew the math away from buying)
• When people have disposable income (or are they missing a gap of income for months from being on furlough/laid off)
• If more people are laid off that are in the DVC pool of owners/buyers
• Larger economic impact that we might see in 2021/22 and if things do in fact get worse or get better

EDIT: Removed initial part of my response

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

SSR - 280 points - asking $95

Of the three contracts you posted, SSR was the only one I watched closely during the past 5 months. You could get 100 pt contracts in the 92-95 range in April/May/June so to me this large one might be good now, but I still see it as pricey.

I know it all depends on which resort, its size, and the use year, but (to me) prices seem up about $5-$10 across the board since May/early June.

 

[Galun]

Of the three contracts you posted, SSR was the only one I watched closely during the past 5 months. You could get 100 pt contracts in the 92-95 range in April/May/June so to me this large one might be good now, but I still see it as pricey.

I know it all depends on which resort, its size, and the use year, but (to me) prices seem up about $5-$10 across the board since May/early June.

The stock market was up around 11 - 12% since beginning of May. Things have generally improved.

We bought two SSR contracts in April. Double points (full 2019 included) at $102 per point. Took me around 3 hours to rent them out when they hit my account, dropping the price to $88 per point.

 

[Leahc117]

What is going on with pricing at ALK resale!!?? I thought I remember seeing low $100 per point a few months ago and now I see contracts for 120-135 per point! Any ideas? This is also leading me to wait until later in the year to see what happens with pricing.

 

[CastAStone]

What is going on with pricing at ALK resale!!?? I thought I remember seeing low $100 per point a few months ago and now I see contracts for 120-135 per point! Any ideas? This is also leading me to wait until later in the year to see what happens with pricing.

I think that is wise.

 

[TinkB278]

What is going on with pricing at ALK resale!!?? I thought I remember seeing low $100 per point a few months ago and now I see contracts for 120-135 per point! Any ideas? This is also leading me to wait until later in the year to see what happens with pricing.

I keep wondering the same thing. I seriously don’t get it.

 

[becauseimnew]

What is going on with pricing at ALK resale!!?? I thought I remember seeing low $100 per point a few months ago and now I see contracts for 120-135 per point! Any ideas? This is also leading me to wait until later in the year to see what happens with pricing.

Because people are paying those prices, those contracts go fast.
If I bought the same contract direct (October UY) I could get 2019 points included for about $19,415. That’s $5,000 more than the list price on the resale contracts. I hope those list prices come down or I might just talk myself into buying direct.

 

[linzjane88]

Our next door school district just announced a layoff of almost 300 employees--bus drivers, teachers, custodians, food service, etc. We are a small area so that's a pretty decent number of people who are now out of work and going to have less disposable income. Magnify that across the US and I just can't imagine how this won't have effects on luxury purchases and travel.

It's odd how my 401k looks fine, resale prices are still too rich for my blood, and yet life is so not 'normal'! Does not compute!

 

[mamaofsix]

So getting back to the point of resale prices what we can start to go off of is:

• When people start planning on trips again (buying resale DVC or selling because they can't go)
• When people from other countries can and will visit again (will UK/CA owners sell if its too far in future)
• Rental pricing (will they take a hit so rental groups sell their contracts/cheap enough to skew the math away from buying)
• When people have disposable income (or are they missing a gap of income for months from being on furlough/laid off)
• If more people are laid off that are in the DVC pool of owners/buyers
• Larger economic impact that we might see in 2021/22 and if things do in fact get worse or get better

EDIT: Removed initial part of my response

I think your point about things being dependent on when guests from other countries start to visit again cannot be overstated.

Recent estimates are that International visitors make up 25-30% of WDW's annual visitors. They also tend to stay longer and spend more. I'd imagine that international DVC owners have more points than the average owner, since they stay longer per visit.

Just going off of the international boards, it seems as though there are a good deal of UK, Canadian and Australian owners and those looking to buy resale. We're Canadian, looking to buy resale, and we certainly won't be buying until our borders are open again. By some estimates that could be at least another 6 months - 1 year. A lack of international buyers and guests will certainly have a big chain reaction on pricing.

 

[CastAStone]

I think your point about things being dependent on when guests from other countries start to visit again cannot be overstated.

Recent estimates are that International visitors make up 25-30% of WDW's annual visitors. They also tend to stay longer and spend more. I'd imagine that international DVC owners have more points than the average owner, since they stay longer per visit.

Just going off of the international boards, it seems as though there are a good deal of UK, Canadian and Australian owners and those looking to buy resale. We're Canadian, looking to buy resale, and we certainly won't be buying until our borders are open again. By some estimates that could be at least another 6 months - 1 year. A lack of international buyers and guests will certainly have a big chain reaction on pricing.

Agree. If I was an international buyer I'd be looking for a stripped contract and trying to time the balance between lower prices and better exchange rates (perhaps less of a concern currently for Canada that Europe). If I was an international owner of a loaded contract that wasn't tied to blue card benefits I'd probably be looking to unload it to a US buyer and planning to buyback in later if/when prices fall (trying to time the market - not for the faint of heart).

FWIW Christine McCarthy said international visitors make up 18-22% of US park visitors on the February earnings call and that they had been "at the lower end of that range" recently (pre-covid). She was trying to explain why COVID wouldn't have a big impact on attendance, the gist was "we barely have any Asian visitors". Whoops.

 

[iheartglaciers]

FWIW Christine McCarthy said international visitors make up 18-22% of US park visitors on the February earnings call and that they had been "at the lower end of that range" recently (pre-covid). She was trying to explain why COVID wouldn't have a big impact on attendance, the gist was "we barely have any Asian visitors". Whoops.

Do you remember if the 18-22% was international visitors to Disneyland + Disney World? Or just Disney World?

 

[sethschroeder]

FWIW Christine McCarthy said international visitors make up 18-22% of US park visitors on the February earnings call and that they had been "at the lower end of that range" recently (pre-covid). She was trying to explain why COVID wouldn't have a big impact on attendance, the gist was "we barely have any Asian visitors". Whoops.

It just depends because visitor and amount of revenue tied to that visitor are different. Revenue per guest is up right now so possibly international actually holds them back on a per visitor spend breakdown.

Do you remember if the 18-22% was international visitors to Disneyland + Disney World? Or just Disney World?

I don't honestly think that data is completely accurate because 18-22% was from reports in 2013 at WDW. I have a hard time believing the numbers are the same almost a decade later for the breakdown. Maybe they are but I would suspect that percentage is specific to WDW.

 

[CastAStone]

I don't honestly think that data is completely accurate because 18-22% was from reports in 2013 at WDW. I have a hard time believing the numbers are the same almost a decade later for the breakdown. Maybe they are but I would suspect that percentage is specific to WDW.

It was literally said on an earnings call by the CFO of TWDC in February of this year. She can choose not to say anything but if she lies on an earnings call about a hard number that's a pretty big scandal.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-...y-company-dis-q1-2020-earnings-call-tran.aspx

 

[CastAStone]

Do you remember if the 18-22% was international visitors to Disneyland + Disney World? Or just Disney World?

It was WDW+DLR.

 

[sethschroeder]

It was literally said on an earnings call by the CFO of TWDC in February of this year. She can choose not to say anything but if she lies on an earnings call about a hard number that's a pretty big scandal.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-...y-company-dis-q1-2020-earnings-call-tran.aspx

Except its a generic range is my point and one that was shared before. Just seems a little off.