Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Wakey]

Taking an assumption that your Australian, can I ask as a fellow Aussie what is the best way to pay for a resale contract?
We too have used our holiday money from this year to jump into the DVC world.

We have just signed contracts and paid the $1000 deposit on the credit card but not sure what to do with the final payment and the best way to do it in terms of getting a better exchange rates.
Any words of wisdom?

I use HiFX (XE.com) here in UK for 4 contracts- has been flawless every time.

 

[Wakey]

We will have a Covid Vaccine approved by year end- likely the Oxford one, with good immune responses. USA have already secured huge amounts of doses which will start being run out en mass by Spring.

 

[TinkB278]

We will have a Covid Vaccine approved by year end- likely the Oxford one, with good immune responses. USA have already secured huge amounts of doses which will start being run out en mass by Spring.

I wish I was as optimistic as you about a vaccine. Sounds like the Oxford vaccine was not very effective in monkeys...

BUT I really hope you’re right because every bone in my body wants to take the plunge and just buy DVC. Just waiting for some promising news.

 

[Brian Noble]

if it's here to say like the regular flu

There are two conditionals here: If it is here to stay (it is) and if it is like the regular flu (it is not).

 

[Spark65]

There are two conditionals here: If it is here to stay (it is) and if it is like the regular flu (it is not).

They both make you sick and they both kill people. Some people say Disney should close to one and stay open for the other I don't think I missed anything.

 

[davidl81]

There are two conditionals here: If it is here to stay (it is) and if it is like the regular flu (it is not).

So let's say no vaccine is viable, at some point then we will reach a level of herd immunity. It will be at a significant cost of life, but overtime that is what will happen and the virus will mostly burn itself off. It will continue to have flare ups, but there should be a base line of immunity at that point to where the flare ups are relativity minimal. At some point life will return to normal since as a society we will just accept the risk (once again more likely once there is some herd immunity). That being said herd immunity in the US would be a huge cost of lives (depending on how you play it out it would be somewhere between 2-3M people if we do not get better at treatments).

 

[Heather07438]

I see Covid 2 sided where DVC resale value is concerned.

I think the public health threat will subside by next spring, and next summer being close to normal. There's just too much at stake and too many great players focusing on the problem to battle it from different sides from improved treatment, testing capabilities beyond just capacity, effective protocols to keep infection spread linear, vaccines rolling out, utilization of immunity (even if temporary) and more. Each will take a bite, reducing the problem that could take it to a very manageable level. It's going to take some time for WDW planning confidence to catch up & fully rebuild though because how commonly advance planning is necessary.

The economy... has a way to go with stages of cascading negative effects not yet played out. Of what was put on pause to stabilize businesses and real estate, some will hang on and others the fallout only postponed. It's highly likely the rental market takes a decent blow, and I think it'll affect resale value more than most suspect. Attractive WDW package specials will hurt price comparisons as well as competition from a desperate world travel market. Some of the excitement on WDW's horizon has been removed. Probably a major reduction in near term WDW trip planning. Combined will continue chipping down the value of contracts for a while before prices start going up again.

We were ready to buy over this year but personal uncertainties and the feeling prices won't increase much if at all between today and 2022 has changed our plans. Prices look inflated to us currently.

From https://blog.fidelityresales.com/long-term-value-of-disney-vacation-club-ownership
2016's $76.35 was avg of only 4 resorts tho 2017 avg of 13 resorts wasn't far off. Even if these numbers aren't precise, overall resale prices have ballooned over the past 5 yrs and I'm not sure the value is still all there. For us there doesn't seem much risk in waiting and watching what happens over the next year or two.

 

[Royal Consort]

I wish I was as optimistic as you about a vaccine. Sounds like the Oxford vaccine was not very effective in monkeys...

BUT I really hope you’re right because every bone in my body wants to take the plunge and just buy DVC. Just waiting for some promising news.

That's not true. The Oxford vaccine was successful in preventing pneumonia in the monkeys. What it didn't do was prevent spread or virus shedding. They were also challenged with higher doses of Covid than would be normal. It also provides the production of both antibodies and T cells.

 

[TinkB278]

That's not true. The Oxford vaccine was successful in preventing pneumonia in the monkeys. What it didn't do was prevent spread or virus shedding. They were also challenged with higher doses of Covid than would be normal. It also provides the production of both antibodies and T cells.

If it doesn’t prevent the spread or virus shredding it doesn’t sound too useful for me in getting the world back to normal.

 

[Royal Consort]

If it doesn’t prevent the spread or virus shredding it doesn’t sound too useful for me in getting the world back to normal.

It does if it significantly reduces the pnemonia, severity of the infection, and therefore mortality. Preventing the spread of any coronavius through a vaccine is an extremely high standard and IF thats to occur, it likely won't be the first cab off the rank.

This will be established by the end of phase 3 trials in Nov.

 

[Wakey]

I wish I was as optimistic as you about a vaccine. Sounds like the Oxford vaccine was not very effective in monkeys...

BUT I really hope you’re right because every bone in my body wants to take the plunge and just buy DVC. Just waiting for some promising news.

Bad reporting - the Oxford vaccine will not be perfect but it will get the job done. The monkeys were given massive viral loads- way more than you or I would ever breath in, and in some there was a bit of virus in the nose, but no deep lung infections.

 

[jennypenny]

So let's say no vaccine is viable, at some point then we will reach a level of herd immunity.

Not to derail, but if a vaccine isn't viable then herd immunity isn't either. They are both based on the assumption that previous exposure builds immunity. If durable immunity isn't possible, we'll have to hang our hat on finding an effective treatment.

Vaccine = Disney goes back to almost normal
Herd Immunity = Somewhat normal, except a bit hit to vacations geared/advertised toward extended family trips that include grandparents, and most of the trips involving kids with special needs or medical issues
Effective Treatment = Biggest hit for Disney since there will be people who are still afraid to catch it and people who may not be able to afford treatment so also avoid getting it

While Disney's hit will vary depending on the above list, DVC's may differ a little. I could see DVC becoming more popular if dining experiences are somewhat curtailed and/or people are afraid to dine out and want rooms with kitchens.

 

[sethschroeder]

That's not true. The Oxford vaccine was successful in preventing pneumonia in the monkeys. What it didn't do was prevent spread or virus shedding. They were also challenged with higher doses of Covid than would be normal. It also provides the production of both antibodies and T cells.

Off topic just for a moment but I have a feeling there is going to be a likelihood that this might be common. I know there is questions regarding "reinfection" and "loss of antibodies fairly quickly".

I haven't been following it as closely recently as I was back in Jan-Apr timeframe so not sure if some of these have been proven out or disproved. I know I was reading about T-cells interaction with COVID19 and how multiple T-cells were need to full protect you but having possibly T-cells from other unrelated past infections might actually prevent you from being stricken more seriously by the illness.

If it doesn’t prevent the spread or virus shredding it doesn’t sound too useful for me in getting the world back to normal.

If the extent of COVID19 was a "bad cold" or "mild flu" the world would easily be able to move forward at that point. There would be modifications like distancing or reduced capacity possibly but mortality along with spread is the major components right now.

Two options:
Reduce R0 (how "spready" the virus is) so that the virus simply dies out
Reduce mortality (how deadly the virus is) so that basically no one dies

You don't need to eliminate R0 if mortality is non existent.

 

[Wakey]

Not to derail, but if a vaccine isn't viable then herd immunity isn't either. They are both based on the assumption that previous exposure builds immunity. If durable immunity isn't possible, we'll have to hang our hat on finding an effective treatment.

Vaccine = Disney goes back to almost normal
Herd Immunity = Somewhat normal, except a bit hit to vacations geared/advertised toward extended family trips that include grandparents, and most of the trips involving kids with special needs or medical issues
Effective Treatment = Biggest hit for Disney since there will be people who are still afraid to catch it and people who may not be able to afford treatment so also avoid getting it

While Disney's hit will vary depending on the above list, DVC's may differ a little. I could see DVC becoming more popular if dining experiences are somewhat curtailed and/or people are afraid to dine out and want rooms with kitchens.

There were a number of preprint studies last week- all showing robust T and C cell response with neutralizing protein, one study even has it increasing in month 3 from mild infection. So far it’s looking very promising regarding exposure and long term immunity (as in 12+ months per shot).

There’s zero credible evidence of reinfection, this was dead RNA picked up on testing apparently.

 

[Wakey]

And there’s growing, albeit as yet far from certain evidence that cross T cell protection is provided from other coronavirus- the best theory as to why a large proportion suffer no symptoms. If that also helps with spread prevention, it could mean herd immunity is triggered at much lower than traditional levels. This could be one of the reasons why places that have had it run through their specific population, then see a large drop off in hospitalizations and deaths- even when social distancing measures are relaxed and cases appear to go up.

 

[sethschroeder]

Anyways I think DVC is much more tied to the economy than to future vaccine research or success.

If nothing changed in the future there will simply be an adjustment by the general population and businesses. Travelers would adjust and society would adjust to account for this future state.

Economy and not the virus is the long term issue. The virus and not the economy is the short term issue.

 

[davidl81]

Does anyone have a thought on why SSR contracts seem to have gone up in price by like $5-$8 over the past month or so? We are in ROFR right now for a loaded 175 point contract (banked points etc) at $99 a point which I thought was a tad high but workable a month ago. Today (just looking at Dec use year to be fair) all I can find are stripped or not loaded contracts in the $105-$108 range. Not really much listed under $100 at least in a Dec use year. I am wondering if the ROFR contracts that have been taken is making brokers suggest a over $100 per point price?

 

[RoseGold]

They went on about how they plan to use it for a two week stays at OKW every other year. Which is perfectly fine. Apart from the fact that you have just thrown about $10,000 down the toilet.

And they didn't even get the Fastpasses. Maybe they at least got the ice cream and the backpack.

 

[sethschroeder]

Does anyone have a thought on why SSR contracts seem to have gone up in price by like $5-$8 over the past month or so? We are in ROFR right now for a loaded 175 point contract (banked points etc) at $99 a point which I thought was a tad high but workable a month ago. Today (just looking at Dec use year to be fair) all I can find are stripped or not loaded contracts in the $105-$108 range. Not really much listed under $100 at least in a Dec use year. I am wondering if the ROFR contracts that have been taken is making brokers suggest a over $100 per point price?

I see a $97/point listed on one of the major 3 resale sites for December at SSR.

I also think the increase in listed price for AKV has created an artificial increase in SSR as they don't need to compete with that pricing being at the $100-$105 space right now.

 

[davidl81]

I see a $97/point listed on one of the major 3 resale sites for December at SSR.

I also think the increase in listed price for AKV has created an artificial increase in SSR as they don't need to compete with that pricing being at the $100-$105 space right now.

Yeah I see that one now, it only has 15 of its 225 points left in 2020, but it is 97 a point.