Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[lovethesun12]

In reality no one should go to a single site or avoid a site because of how they might have priced something before.

As long as they are reputable watch them, track them, and get the best deal for you.

One caveat when I possibly sell even if it's more buy that contract hahaha. I mean it's only one caveat though.

Yeah that's true. I didn't give up in an "I'll never use them!" sort of way. I just kinda see all their listings now and think yeah what I would have expected, and just don't bother to watch them closely. I still check here and there. I've put in multiple full priced offers on other sites (and lost them to other quicker bidders) because they were priced more competitively; I just don't think that's something dvcresalemarket seems to do. Fair enough, it appears to work for them so that's great for them! I'm just kind of meh on the site.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

High listing may have mortgages attached to them, so sellers are not going to sell if it means it won't cover the outstanding payments.

Understood but it just seems like a waste of everyone's time so I'm surprised the brokers list them. There is a CC listing on Fidelity that was just reduced to $170 while all the pending ones around it were listed at $147-$155.

Does anyone else get annoyed with the format of this website? I'm not a fan of the picture format and how the information is displayed. I like columns.

Fidelity is better, but it also gets on my nerves with all the scrolling you have to do and such.

Maybe it is just me?

No, a lot of them are awful. The fact that most don't even give you an easy way to filter out pending listings is ridiculous.

 

[E2ME2]

Understood but it just seems like a waste of everyone's time so I'm surprised the brokers list them. There is a CC listing on Fidelity that was just reduced to $170 while all the pending ones around it were listed at $147-$155.


No, a lot of them are awful. The fact that most don't even give you an easy way to filter out pending listings is ridiculous.

Knowledge is Power, and they don't want to share that power with potential buyers! (just a theory)

 

[bookwormde]

7/11 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[Deeleebaker]

High listing may have mortgages attached to them, so sellers are not going to sell if it means it won't cover the outstanding payments.

i decided to look up the contract I bought on the county website. Im paying $122 but my sellers paid $115 Two years ago. So after paying MF on points they banked for me, and commission, they probably Took a small loss. Can’t know how many 2018 and banked 2017 points they got then, but I know I got 98/110 of the 2019 allotment.

 

[jade1]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/08...using-payments.html?__twitter_impression=true

Sad. Now I'm wondering what housing will do in Oralndo, not just DVC.

DVC friends are moving there soon, and contemplating dumping DVC for part of the down payment.

But maybe they should wait a while with all going on down there.

 

[lovethesun12]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/08...using-payments.html?__twitter_impression=true

Just curious - are banks in the US deferring mortgages (optionally) for 6 months like they are here? If people have that option they may just be taking it to put aside cash (I know that might not be a good decision with regards to interest, but choosing to defer a payment and being unable to make a payment are different....)

 

[glamdring269]

Just curious - are banks in the US deferring mortgages (optionally) for 6 months like they are here? If people have that option they may just be taking it to put aside cash (I know that might not be a good decision with regards to interest, but choosing to defer a payment and being unable to make a payment are different....)

There is a section of the article that addresses this indirectly. I do think there are a lot of unknowns but eventually protections have to be addressed. Most discussions revolve around the folks renting but not all landlords are rich (not trying to imply that you are saying this, I am just making the general point). I’ve got a friend who rents out a property and he hasn’t been paid in months but is still responsible for making his mortgage payment. Vicious cycle...

The federal eviction moratorium, which covers around one-fourth of renters in the U.S., put in place at the beginning of the pandemic has been extended to the end of August. But many people are still worried about an imminent wave of evictions across the country, as tenant protections vary greatly depending on the state and even city. Many — though not all — states and cities have instituted their own eviction bans; some have already expired, leaving tenants vulnerable at a time when coronavirus cases are increasing in many spots in the U.S.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

If and when the housing market drops so will DVC. ROFR returning might be all there is to stop a big drop in prices.

 

[CastAStone]

If and when the housing market drops so will DVC. ROFR returning might be all there is to stop a big drop in prices.

They can’t ROFR everything. I mean legally they can but practically they wouldn’t. If a price decline is caused by a surge in supply, that’s that many more contracts that they’d need to purchase to prop prices up. So then to unload them they’d need to find more people than usual to be willing to pay direct prices at a time where there’s not even enough buyers willing to pay the going resale price.

That is a long way of saying, ROFR cant prop up prices if they’re determined to fall.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

If housing prices drop 10-15% how much does DVC drop? Especially if movement between states and countries continues to be restricted.

 

[glamdring269]

If housing prices drop 10-15% how much does DVC drop? Especially if movement between states and countries continues to be restricted.

We have some history of economic impact on DVC pricing. ROFR threads probably still exist from 2008-13 if you want to see that. Not sure we will see that level of influence here or not but the other thing you just mentioned is actually very interesting. We are going to be facing the usual economic factors but pandemic factors that are basically new with no previous comparable as well. Who knows yet what the new normal is for the park experience? If what is going on right now becomes permanent would it negatively influence prices? I imagine it would.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

It's worth noting that housing typically doesn't drop much (if any) during a recession. 2008 was a housing caused recession so our most recent example taints our memory. Here is the median home price data with recessions in grey: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

The problem with recessions is they are always caused by something we didn't expect and very little is repeated. Home prices are actually up since all of the shutdowns started.

 

[RoseGold]

My local market real estate is up, like WAY up, and my SSR is worth more than I paid for it in 2019. I have no idea what is going on.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

My local market real estate is up, like WAY up, and my SSR is worth more than I paid for it in 2019. I have no idea what is going on.

Real estate is up where I am but listings are way down.

 

[CastAStone]

My local market real estate is up, like WAY up, and my SSR is worth more than I paid for it in 2019. I have no idea what is going on.

It’s way to early for a recession to be impacting housing. People who are unemployed are still getting an extra $600. Once missed payments start its months to get foreclosures and then months more to get enough homes on the market to even begin to see downward pressure.

In any case, housing, an essential need to live, is a terrible comparison for DVC, a prepaid vacation luxury purchase. Used Boats, used Luxury cars, beach homes in places few people live year round, these are things more likely to move price in a manner similar to DVC.

 

[WestCoastDVC]

It’s way to early for a recession to be impacting housing. People who are unemployed are still getting an extra $600. Once missed payments start its months to get foreclosures and then months more to get enough homes on the market to even begin to see downward pressure.

In any case, housing, an essential need to live, is a terrible comparison for DVC, a prepaid vacation luxury purchase. Used Boats, used Luxury cars, beach homes in places few people live year round, these are things more likely to move price in a manner similar to DVC.

I would expect DVC prices to also be closely correlated with medium-term hotel/resort rates at and near Disney World. The DVC "moat" compared to other timeshares is the on-premise location at WDW, but if resort and hotel prices go down significantly for long periods of time there could be continued depressed demand for DVC. I don't think we know what will happen... I have two contracts in ROFR with points coming in 2021. So my bet is that things will be back to normal and prices continuing to rise in the 2022/23 time frame.

 

[WestCoastDVC]

To add one more point: I think the current and potential future monetary interventions of the Fed and congressional stimulus packages make it really hard to predict anything. They can inject a lot of money and induce consumer spending even though all other rational signs point the opposite direction. I believe we are truly in unchartered waters and any speculation is just that. It can still be fun to do though

 

[Kylie_1504]

Can we not name the site we're talking about?

It's dvcresalemarket, right? They've been trying to make $12X/point for AKL happen for a while.

Another thing I noticed them adding on stripped contracts is how you can use your 2022 points in 2021 by borrowing but there are restrictions at the moment so that’s not entirely accurate I haven’t been following for long but it’s definitely doesn’t work in the current circumstances and is a little misleading.

 

[CastAStone]

Another thing I noticed them adding on stripped contracts is how you can use your 2022 points in 2021 by borrowing but there are restrictions at the moment so that’s not entirely accurate I haven’t been following for long but it’s definitely doesn’t work in the current circumstances and is a little misleading.

Yes I’ve noticed several sites with language on this that’s downright fraudulent.

Showing or discussing 2022 or 2023(!) points at all is at best disingenuous and at worst misleading because every contract has its full allotment of 2022 and 2023 points right now.

Dear sites: Show me current, prior, and upcoming UY. Anything else makes it harder for me to buy from you, not easier.