Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057
.
I will add June from the reseller when it is available as well as updating DIS ROFR for June on 8/1

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 ...........................6/1 ….............…...…7/1 ..............8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[103] 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[84] 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[127] 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[135] 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[105] 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97] 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137] 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[142] 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[ND] 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99] 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[143] 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[94] 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND] 48



*over 50% less than 100 pts

The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly

 

[JoshF]

Can you please explain so I understand this more. Here was for AUL: "85(88)[84] 82 80"

What are the 5 numbers?

Thanks!

 

[bookwormde]

Can you please explain so I understand this more. Here was for AUL: "85(88)[84] 82 80"

What are the 5 numbers?

Thanks!

last 2 numbers are my original guesses for 8/1 and 9/1 7/1 is still missing the data from the reseller that published their data

 

[bookwormde]

7/2 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 360-380% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[gisele2]

Small PVB 130$/pt. on sale this morning.

 

[Noah_t]

I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057
.
I will add June from the reseller when it is available as well as updating DIS ROFR for June on 8/1

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 ...........................6/1 ….............…...…7/1 ..............8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[103] 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[84] 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[127] 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[135] 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[105] 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97] 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137] 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[142] 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[ND] 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99] 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[143] 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[94] 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND] 48



*over 50% less than 100 pts

The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly

Wow. Is that ever scary for someone who's in the process of buying. We were just about to pull the trigger on a copper creek but my wife was dragging her heels. I now have to admit to her she was TOTALLY right and walk away. The debate about if prices are falling really needs to be shifted to when have we seen the bottom.

 

[lovethesun12]

I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057
.
I will add June from the reseller when it is available as well as updating DIS ROFR for June on 8/1

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 ...........................6/1 ….............…...…7/1 ..............8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[103] 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[84] 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[127] 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[135] 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[105] 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97] 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137] 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[142] 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[ND] 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99] 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[143] 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[94] 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND] 48



*over 50% less than 100 pts

The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly

Well if nothing else, those that follow the ROFR thread are on track to get some of the deals predicted in September! LOL. Who cares about what those other average prices are doing .

 

[lovethesun12]

Small PVB 130$/pt. on sale this morning.

I bet the person that might have this one is DYING of happiness at the moment

 

[linzjane88]

So, if we keep having weeks where the amount of listed contracts are 150-300% more than average, it's maybe a correct to assume a sea of contracts will eventually bring prices down?

 

[Captain Trips]

First, bookwormde This is definitely a great thread and I appreciate the work that goes into it. Having just agreed to my first contract, I’ve been watching a lot of resale sites. From what I’ve seen most listings are for mostly stripped contracts. Fully loaded contracts are holding better value and selling much quicker. I wonder how much the stripped contracts are affecting average prices. If you’re not planning on using points right away it’s probably a good time to be in market.

 

[lovethesun12]

First, bookwormde This is definitely a great thread and I appreciate the work that goes into it. Having just agreed to my first contract, I’ve been watching a lot of resale sites. From what I’ve seen most listings are for mostly stripped contracts. Fully loaded contracts are holding better value and selling much quicker. I wonder how much the stripped contracts are affecting average prices. If you’re not planning on using points right away it’s probably a good time to be in market.

Personally I think the issue right now with stripped contracts is that you can only borrow 50% of points from the next use year. It makes a huge difference for anyone who wants to travel in the current use year.

 

[Captain Trips]

Personally I think the issue right now with stripped contracts is that you can only borrow 50% of points from the next use year. It makes a huge difference for anyone who wants to travel in the current use year.

That was a big reason why I went with a loaded contract. I didn’t want to go into ownership borrowing right away. On top of that I believe reservations will be harder to come by and didn’t want to be limited by my lack of points.

 

[limace]

I’d actually be more OK with a stripped contract right now as I think it’s probably safest and easiest to just wait a year or so to travel.

Captaintrips-you have the most pandemic-y user name ever!

 

[Captain Trips]

I’d actually be more OK with a stripped contract right now as I think it’s probably safest and easiest to just wait a year or so to travel.

Captaintrips-you have the most pandemic-y user name ever!

It’s definitely a matter of preference. I plan to go next year so a stripped contract was not ideal for me.

My user name is a reference to Jerry Garcia not the Stephen king book. However, this may be a good time to check it out.

 

[limace]

I live in the home of the Grateful Dead so should know that-sadly, not a fan. But the book is great

 

[Captain Trips]

I will have to pick it up. Plenty of time to read in this social distancing era.

 

[mlayton14]

I don’t think anyone should overthink this , if I’m reading the numbers correctly there are double to triple number of contracts YOY hitting the market in very uncertain economic times , there is no real driver to meet that demand, and prices will probably fall significantly, am I missing something at the macro level?
One more thing - one artificial demand driver (Disney ROFR) has been eliminated

 

[G.C.]

Small PVB 130$/pt. on sale this morning.

I saw that too, but it is gone this morning. Not “pending,” just looks pulled unless I missed something. I wonder what that was all about.

 

[Nabas]

I don’t think anyone should overthink this , if I’m reading the numbers correctly there are double to triple number of contracts YOY hitting the market in very uncertain economic times , there is no real driver to meet that demand, and prices will probably fall significantly, am I missing something at the macro level?
One more thing - one artificial demand driver (Disney ROFR) has been eliminated

We also need to take into consideration the depth and length of the economic downturn, which is always difficult to forecast.

There is a bit of panic selling at the moment, but that could change next year.

In 12 months, we could be back to normal or it could be even worse, if an effective vaccine is not available.

Recall that in the 2008 crash, DVC prices didn't bottom out until 2010 and 2011. We're just at the start of this.

 

[E2ME2]

I think most people who are predicting a decline think will start in earnest towards the end of this year or early next year. But don’t expect prices to freefall. If they do decline, it’s much more likely it will happen at a measured pace over time.

I think the pattern will continue, and prices will be lowest in January & February of 2021.
I bought resale in Feb. 2020, and it was as low as most others I've seen through this virus crisis. ($88.89/Point at SSR)
It will be interesting to see if park reopening is successful, and if that helps buoy the prices into 2021.