Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Frederic Civish]

I don't know where prices are going, however my real supposition is that they will soften a bit more. Perhaps as much as 10% or 15%, but not a lot. However, it is possible that there will be the occasional contract that is put out there at a surprisingly low price, and since Disney is mostly out of the ROFR business at the moment, I think some amazing deals might become available, for people with sharp eyes.

 

[Cowgirl_Jessie]

I don't know where prices are going, however my real supposition is that they will soften a bit more. Perhaps as much as 10% or 15%, but not a lot. However, it is possible that there will be the occasional contract that is put out there at a surprisingly low price, and since Disney is mostly out of the ROFR business at the moment, I think some amazing deals might become available, for people with sharp eyes.

That is helpful and appreciated. When looking at the prices for HHI, it seemed like Fidelity was first to adjust their pricing and that it is now starting to flow on to the other resales companies.

 

[Cowgirl_Jessie]

Can I throw out numbers on a contract that I’m in negotiations for to get input from the group? I don’t want to violate any rules.

 

[hlhlaw07]

Can I throw out numbers on a contract that I’m in negotiations for to get input from the group? I don’t want to violate any rules.

There is no rule against that.

 

[Cowgirl_Jessie]

Great! I put an offer of $63 on a 200 point contract for HHI. The counter offer is $65 and I pay closing costs and annual dues (as expected.)
I’m just not sure that $65 pp represents the risk in our current situation and the 2042 expiration.

As to the 2042 expiration, there will be a tipping point sometime as the number of years left declines. Are we there yet? I don’t think so, but does that happen in the next few years?

From a risk perspective, HHI is seeing a large spike right now and has asked that everyone wear masks in public. If this drives DVC cancellations at HHI in the short term (and long term as well), booking availability will be impacted for next year for certain.

So what’s a fair price? Just curious for some other perspectives please!

 

[Noah_t]

Great! I put an offer of $63 on a 200 point contract for HHI. The counter offer is $65 and I pay closing costs and annual dues (as expected.)
I’m just not sure that $65 pp represents the risk in our current situation and the 2042 expiration.

As to the 2042 expiration, there will be a tipping point sometime as the number of years left declines. Are we there yet? I don’t think so, but does that happen in the next few years?

From a risk perspective, HHI is seeing a large spike right now and has asked that everyone wear masks in public. If this drives DVC cancellations at HHI in the short term (and long term as well), booking availability will be impacted for next year for certain.

So what’s a fair price? Just curious for some other perspectives please!

How many points are on the contract? If it was me I would want a nice loaded one. Dues are quite high at HHI so keep that in mind too.

 

[CastAStone]

Great! I put an offer of $63 on a 200 point contract for HHI. The counter offer is $65 and I pay closing costs and annual dues (as expected.)
I’m just not sure that $65 pp represents the risk in our current situation and the 2042 expiration.

As to the 2042 expiration, there will be a tipping point sometime as the number of years left declines. Are we there yet? I don’t think so, but does that happen in the next few years?

From a risk perspective, HHI is seeing a large spike right now and has asked that everyone wear masks in public. If this drives DVC cancellations at HHI in the short term (and long term as well), booking availability will be impacted for next year for certain.

So what’s a fair price? Just curious for some other perspectives please!

Some thoughts on the tipping point:
So a studio is like $3K/ week in the summer, or 129 points. So each year, if you use them in the summer, a point is worth like $23. Take away the dues and it’s ~$14. So in theory it still has value above what you’re paying for it for 15 more years. Said differently, if the resort expired in 2027, I’m not sure you’d be paying that much less for it.

 

[Lorana]

Great! I put an offer of $63 on a 200 point contract for HHI. The counter offer is $65 and I pay closing costs and annual dues (as expected.)
I’m just not sure that $65 pp represents the risk in our current situation and the 2042 expiration.

As to the 2042 expiration, there will be a tipping point sometime as the number of years left declines. Are we there yet? I don’t think so, but does that happen in the next few years?

From a risk perspective, HHI is seeing a large spike right now and has asked that everyone wear masks in public. If this drives DVC cancellations at HHI in the short term (and long term as well), booking availability will be impacted for next year for certain.

So what’s a fair price? Just curious for some other perspectives please!

My thinking would be this way: is the $400 that big a different to you, or would you rather have the contract? In the end, that's what we're talking about.
If they don't want to go lower than $65, and you are willing to settle for $63, then maybe ask them to go 50/50 on the annual dues?
I don't have a good sense of the current going prices for HHI, but the current ROFR thread has small point contracts at $80pp as a comparison.

 

[Cowgirl_Jessie]

How many points are on the contract? If it was me I would want a nice loaded one. Dues are quite high at HHI so keep that in mind too.

Thanks!! It is loaded. I’m with you, a stripped contract just isn’t of interest unless the valuation truly reflects that. Spot on about the maintenance fees, we just love that resort though and summer is very difficult to book without owning there. The WDW dues are so much less; LOL, first time I’ve ever complimented WDW as a value!

 

[Cowgirl_Jessie]

Some thoughts on the tipping point:
So a studio is like $3K/ week in the summer, or 129 points. So each year, if you use them in the summer, a point is worth like $23. Take away the dues and it’s ~$14. So in theory it still has value above what you’re paying for it for 15 more years. Said differently, if the resort expired in 2027, I’m not sure you’d be paying that much less for it.

Thanks Castastone for sharing the idea of a break even analysis and even providing numbers! That is a great way to think about it; you are living up to your title as math whiz.

 

[Cowgirl_Jessie]

My thinking would be this way: is the $400 that big a different to you, or would you rather have the contract? In the end, that's what we're talking about.
If they don't want to go lower than $65, and you are willing to settle for $63, then maybe ask them to go 50/50 on the annual dues?
I don't have a good sense of the current going prices for HHI, but the current ROFR thread has small point contracts at $80pp as a comparison.

Thank you Lorana! That is helpful as well and definitely a few things to consider. Much appreciated!

 

[bookwormde]

6/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 320-340% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[chunks]

6/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 320-340% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

Thanks for updating these every day. Love the info.

 

[bookwormde]

6/23 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220-230% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[disneykim17]

I have a question regarding UY...If we have 3 accounts all for the same resort and 2 with the same UY and 1 with a different UY can they all be linked under one logon? Also, can they be maintained under one ID? Any information would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

 

[taaren]

I have a question regarding UY...If we have 3 accounts all for the same resort and 2 with the same UY and 1 with a different UY can they all be linked under one logon? Also, can they be maintained under one ID? Any information would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

If you have two with the same UY, same names on the contracts, everything identical you should be able to combine those into 1 membership number when you purchase. The other contract will have a different membership number but you should be able to access from the same login.

 

[bookwormde]

6/24 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Thank you Lorana! That is helpful as well and definitely a few things to consider. Much appreciated!

Sounds like a fair deal to me! Being loaded tips the scale.

 

[disneykim17]

I'm stalking a resale at AKV price of $130 pp for 100 point. 0/19, 200/20, 100/21 and buyer pays MF for 2020 which puts the price over $14k. The price per point seems high compared to comps on other resale sites. Would like to hear thoughts on this.

 

[bookwormde]

I'm stalking a resale at AKV price of $130 pp for 100 point. 0/19, 200/20, 100/21 and buyer pays MF for 2020 which puts the price over $14k. The price per point seems high compared to comps on other resale sites. Would like to hear thoughts on this.

because the supply got low, there were quite a few AKV that came on the market at $10 to 20 above the the market.