Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[MICKIMINI]

Just found a $137 CCV contract. I wasn't really thinking CCV, but it might be a good option. I wasn't expecting that low a price at this point...

EDIT: and another at $139

 

[Cyberc1978]

just saw that there are 6.6 million new unemployment claims in the US

 

[holyrita]

The 5 contracts I have been watching for a few days have all moved to 'sale pending'.

 

[bookwormde]

bookwormde - where are you getting this data ?
ET

I am compiling it from 5 different re-sellers as well as the site that lists most of the active listings

I do not think that I am allowed to list them, but one is TSS and the 2 largest are also included

 

[bookwormde]

The 5 contracts I have been watching for a few days have all moved to 'sale pending'.

yes the ones that are priced aggressively appear to be moving pretty fast

 

[sky2823]

If contracts really do get to the point where they are 50% off their highs, I think we will also be discussing a Disney bankruptcy and the purchase will have some inherent risk.... (thus the low price). just my opinion....

 

[sethschroeder]

How can BCV resale contracts be selling for only $20 a point less than Poli contracts when they have 23 fewer years left.

Because upfront prices are a small portion of total cost of a contract. Value 22 years from now is less important than the next 5 to 10 years when it comes to resale.

Direct its a bigger deal because those are "overpriced" so people want that blue card as long as possible.

just saw that there are 6.6 million new unemployment claims in the US

Its a terrible thing but also need to keep in mind people are way way more aware of the ability to claim unemployment than in the past. Thing such as reduced hours even can qualify you for unemployment.

Another thing to keep in mind that the unemployment is partly being driven by state forced closure instead of businesses going out of business, which is a good thing and hopefully remains true.

Finally a good thing that the Feds did was the extra $600 per week to unemployment for those claiming.

 

[sethschroeder]

If contracts really do get to the point where they are 50% off their highs, I think we will also be discussing a Disney bankruptcy and the purchase will have some inherent risk.... (thus the low price). just my opinion....

I don't think the two are linked. Also Disney has major assets that it could sell off likely to avoid any bankruptcy. I mean could they sell of the Simpsons?

I think prices could drop simply because a reduction of excess spending.

 

[sky2823]

If this thing extends more than a few months (I don’t think it will), Disney will not have the cash flow to manage the parks, and won’t fire sale assets (assets would be pennies on the dollar in that environment and with the needed speed). They will either be an acquisition target, receive a bail-out or go the bankruptcy route. Again, I think bankruptcy is unlikely and you can argue it’s mutually exclusive, but if the park is closed for additional months that would mean the total economy is closed for additional months and that would mean an economic apocalypse that would put prices very low and and Disney on the verge of bankruptcy. Just my opinion...

 

[Matty B13]

Just found a $137 CCV contract. I wasn't really thinking CCV, but it might be a good option. I wasn't expecting that low a price at this point...

Probably an uninformed owner who didn't really know what they bought, and now just wants to get rid of the contract. Might not have even used any of the points.

 

[SL6827]

Probably an uninformed owner who didn't really know what they bought, and now just wants to get rid of the contract. Might not have even used any of the points.

Could be.

 

[SL6827]

I seen some AKL 50-100 points for $115-$120 today. Not sure how much of a dip that is.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Most likely, however I also came across an AKV at $99...these are the low end, but surprising to see them appear so quickly. I think the economic ticking timebomb for business owners that know they can't make it may be combined with brokers that are (I'm guessing) advising those that have to sell, to price it to sell now before the market is flooded. Unfortunately, many small businesses won't make it despite government intervention. I owned my own successful business for twenty years and likely would not have withstood this crisis no matter what I did and I'm sorry for those that worked hard for so many years and hope that they can hold on.

 

[SL6827]

Most likely, however I also came across an AKV at $99...these are the low end, but surprising to see them appear so quickly. I think the economic ticking timebomb for business owners that know they can't make it may be combined with brokers that are (I'm guessing) advising those that have to sell, to price it to sell now before the market is flooded. Unfortunately, many small businesses won't make it despite government intervention. I owned my own successful business for twenty years and likely would not have withstood this crisis no matter what I did and I'm sorry for those that worked hard for so many years and hope that they can hold on.

I agree. Good point about brokers telling clients to price low before the flood of contracts. That is a smart broker.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I just received an email from a broker with reduced commission to 6%. An early effort to "capture" listings I wonder if others will follow?

 

[bookwormde]

4/2 update

Slightly above average new resale contracts

Seeing additional 25% above the market new resale contracts, these are all showing up on a single site

 

[RoseGold]

I'm watching VGF and there is TONS on the market right now in the range of 155-160, which honestly I would have bought at three months ago. BUT, even with such a huge drop, this isn't even down to 2017 prices.

None of them are moving, I think VGF still has room to fall, and I'm not in a hurry.

 

[Matty B13]

I'm watching VGF and there is TONS on the market right now in the range of 155-160, which honestly I would have bought at three months ago. BUT, even with such a huge drop, this isn't even down to 2017 prices.

None of them are moving, I think VGF still has room to fall, and I'm not in a hurry.

I've been doing the same thing, I'm looking for 2016 price range when we bought are original contract. After this whole thing, DVC really will need to look at their direct pricing as well.

 

[OlieRow]

I am compiling it from 5 different re-sellers as well as the site that lists most of the active listings

What site lists most of the active listings?

 

[JGINPL]

I know this might not be the most popular view but I even wrote to Yvonne about DVC and doing something for all members. See below: (i received a generic response but still thought I should message her something)
Miss Yvonne Chang-
Hello and I hope this message finds you well. I see the economy at a whole is in unprecedented times. I was one of the lucky members that got my vacation in early February before everything happened with the coronavirus. From reading a lot of message boards, I know many members are uncertain how this virus may affect membership going forward. From reading from members how DVC was originally set up as more of a club instead of blue card member and white card member, I think it would show good will (on Disney's part) on going back to the days when everyone would receive a blue card. DVC members (resale or direct) vacation an awful lot at Disney when they do their vacations and it would be nice to see that there isn't a distinction going forward on which members get benefits and which ones do not. That is just my thought I had been having.

Sincerely,

Joey,

Thanks for reaching out and for sharing your feedback. We hope that you and your family are doing well and staying safe.

Warmest wishes,
Yvonne