The best question would be: where are all the sellers?
More than 80% of the deeds sold at OKW are still owned by the original buyers. For a 27 years old resort it is impressive. Unless there is a mass sellout anytime soon, it seems the average ownership lenght will be over 30 years. For a timeshare! Many people don't own their house that long. The reason DVC resale prices are so high is that not many owners sell.
See my post below from another thread. Since DVC started the AWI has outpaced CPI by a fair margin. Though I suppose an argument could be made who is an average American but the AWI is based on data from SSA. Though that thread alos goes into details how DVC is outpacing both wage and inflation growths. So perhaps OKW is an outlier, but analysis done by @dvcsince93 (Summary Analysis Thread) has shown that newer resorts are far less turnover than OKW, I think that was the result. Perhaps they can confirm that for us. But either way it certainly showed the average contract is not held only to 10 years as BLT, about 10 years now, I think was found to have around 10% resale which is far less to make the average 10 years. So assuming same turnover you get to about were OKW is now. The question is how would CCV, PVB, and DRR do in 8 years from now that is question but since DVC has always outpaced inflation and wage growth all indications are that much might not change (barring Disney becoming a destination that is undesirable to visit which to me is the key why DVC doesn't behave at all like other timeshares). If resale upticks too much DVC is hitting a point where I would think Direct sales start to hurt, because resale prices drop opening that spread; the main reason for high resale prices is the simple fact most people aren't reselling (supply and demand).Adjusting for inflation, wages today for most American workers have barely moved since then. The cost increases of DVC and park tickets is far outpacing real wage growth.
Well actually earnings increases pretty much are correlated with inflation, sort of required for a well functioning economy. Inflation is a measure of a basket of common household goods a US citizen would purchase, thus if inflation outpaces wage growth people stop being able to live and quality of life plummets and eventually would disappear. Also inflation here being discussed is US inflation thus should correlate that to US wage growth. Historically since 1951 Wage growth has outpaced inflation
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Looking at the annual growths you see very few times inflation outpaced wage growth. Any time inflation outpaces wage growth for extended periods of time there will be large macroeconomic issues and if it continues consistently you have situations like Venezuela.
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Here is looking at a comparison from 2007 (peak market before crash) until 2017. You see them pretty much in lock step. So overall the past 10 years has shown we can expect wage growth (median is used here which is a better measure for middle class) and inflation to be similar.
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Looking at 1990 forward (last 30 years or so) we see wage growth still outpacing.
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Median Wage (From Social Security Admin)
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html
CPI (Measure of Inflation for US)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
We owned OKW and HHI since 2001. Sold OKW after a few years. Just sold HHI this year.
Loved the Disney experience. HHI is a great resort and a wonderful place to vacation. We stayed there 14 times.
We rented a house with friends at Sea Pines and realized that HHI is a great place unto itself and we didn’t need DVC to make it happen.
Too many rule changes with increasing frequency over the years which suggest more as the years go on. Dues increased faster than the rate of inflation. Point reallocation messed up our plans causing us to buy a small contract. And, the simple fact that there were 41 years left when we bought and now we are down to 22 years. That’s half the time and at some point, the capital outlay will become a wasting asset.
In 2001 it cost 33 points Sun-Thu and $105 in MF to stay in a 2 br. In 2018, it costs 41 points per night Sun-Thu and $350 in MF. Way higher than the inflation rate.
We sold at the right time for us and recaptured more than our original purchase price.
The economics have changed dramatically and if we were looking at DVC today, we would not participate.
We do have almost 20 years of great vacations and great memories.
I think Old Key West and some of the earlier resorts will wind up being outliers. OKW was $48 a point in pre-sale in 1991. When my grandparents bought in '93 it was $57.50/pp - $9200 for a 160 point contract...plus, you got free park hopper tickets for your stay for X years, which was a major incentive and a huge discount on future vacations until the perk went away.