When you imagine COVID-related restrictions, what timeframe do you have in mind?

[Hegemon]

Hi everyone! As I read through all of these posts about masks/distancing/dining changes/etc, I wonder what timeframe everyone is thinking about when we forecast? I agree completely that we'll see masks, decreased entertainment, and funky dining schedules for a while...but when will it end? When, if ever, will cruising return to normal? We're going to book something for summer 2022; do you think things will be normal by then? Thanks!

 

[mevelandry]

It sounds like in North America, everyone who wants to be vaccinated will be by the end of the summer. Make it the end of the year as a worst case scenario. We have a cruise at the end of January 2022. I think a big part of the most severe measures (like the masks) could be done by that time.

 

[Clojel]

It sounds like in North America, everyone who wants to be vaccinated will be by the end of the summer. Make it the end of the year as a worst case scenario. We have a cruise at the end of January 2022. I think a big part of the most severe measures (like the masks) could be done by that time.

I agree. I think it’s highly likely that vaccinations will be required to sail - at least for the adults - but I don’t necessarily imagine much in the way of restrictions beyond that. My guess is they’ll start with a reduced capacity...as a precaution....and keep some social distancing measures - limited/controlled character meet & greets, reduced occupancy during shows and in kids clubs - and probably the requirement that people use DCL sponsored excursions...but I honestly don’t think masks will be required, at least not to the extent that they are now.

 

[tvguy]

I think what ports the ships are going to may impact the restrictions. The U.S. has been much more lax about restrictions that other nations, and to go to some ports, cruise lines may have to step it up to a higher standard.

 

[kathi]

The medical experts are saying this time next year things could be much more normal. I really feel like total old times “normal” is gone forever. Self-serve buffets feel to me like they will go the way of the dodo. So much will depend on how quickly other countries vaccinate and how well the vaccines and boosters work against new variants.

We have 9/25/2021 and 12/19/2021 Westerns on the Fantasy. I think September has 50/50 chance at this point and will have a lot of restrictions (I’ll go regardless) and Christmas is more likely to sail with fewer restrictions. Clearly this is all my opinion and we really just won’t know until official announcements are made. ️

 

[mom4fun]

I think all of those restrictions are for the short term. I don’t believe cruising will start up until the pandemic has ended. Many states are starting to end those restrictions and in the coming months, I think we will see more added to the list.

 

[sabrecmc]

One issue is that we can't vaccinate children yet, so for something like a Disney cruise, I imagine that is going to require some accommodations for a bit of time, even if everyone else is vaccinated. We are learning more and more as we go about how effective the vaccines are at preventing transmission, and I think so far it is good news. As we get more data, that will obviously matter, too. I'm very optimistic that we will see something approaching normal by Fall, but a total return to normal for something like a cruise ship...I don't know. Depends a lot on the science, but I am very hopeful.

 

[fgaini]

I hope end of year to see a normalized situation... let's hope!

 

[DCLDVC1]

I think it will depend upon how much backlash DCL receives compared to how much money they are saving. I won't be surprised if some of the changes/restrictions become permanent.

 

[Cruising Engineer]

By the end of 2021 and a requirement for vaccination.

 

[Husker Mike]

When cruising begins, vaccinations for those 16+ will be required. Social distancing will be in effect, so reduced capacity on ships and some limitations on activities. Excursions will be controlled initially. Masks required except when eating or swimming.

Over time, as things continue to improve, capacity onboard will increase and activities will be restored. Masks, being the least intrusive preventative measure, will be the last requirement to be lifted.

 

[Masonmj84]

I predict late spring or early summer 2022. I think cases will continue to drop throughout the upcoming spring and summer (especially as more and more people are vaccinated) but then a possible moderate rise in cases into fall and winter due to the seasonal nature of the virus (although nothing remotely close to what we saw this past fall and winter). I think it will be almost entirely in the rearview mirror by say, Easter of 2022, but that it will take the cruise industry a few months beyond that to get mostly back to "normal" (with Disney being one of the last for reasons expressed elsewhere in this thread).

 

[apathetic]

Without vaccinations for kids, Disney is going to be out awhile. You can't have half the people at risk for exposure and transmission. Even if kids are generally milder on symptoms, nobody is going to let a boat full of carriers ashore. Other lines could restart with adult only cruises (requiring proof of vaccination) and be successful. Disney is going to require some creative policies to start again.

 

[mevelandry]

Without vaccinations for kids, Disney is going to be out awhile. You can't have half the people at risk for exposure and transmission. Even if kids are generally milder on symptoms, nobody is going to let a boat full of carriers ashore. Other lines could restart with adult only cruises (requiring proof of vaccination) and be successful. Disney is going to require some creative policies to start again.

That being said, I have no doubt that Disney could fill up ships with adult only cruises if that was the only option available to restart.

 

[apathetic]

That being said, I have no doubt that Disney could fill up ships with adult only cruises if that was the only option available to restart.

Yes and no. Initially, they could get some cruises with adults only. But, Disney is setup with a certain percentage being in kid's spaces. An adults-only cruise would be very packed unless it was intentionally only about half capacity. With likely covid limitations, a ship full of adults could be not very fun.

 

[angelmav]

Not in my lifetime. The mutations make me think I’ll never see this as an in the past thing.

 

[AquaDame]

It sounds like you mean specifically for cruising, so I think it will depend on whether or not they require proof of vaccine. The US is speeding along but many other countries not so much, and its not like everyone is going to get vaccinated. I can easily see masks sticking around well into 2022 depending on the numbers and how this thing mutates in the next year.

 

[mevelandry]

Yes and no. Initially, they could get some cruises with adults only. But, Disney is setup with a certain percentage being in kid's spaces. An adults-only cruise would be very packed unless it was intentionally only about half capacity. With likely covid limitations, a ship full of adults could be not very fun.

It would be fun enough for me.

 

[onesam319]

Self-serve buffets feel to me like they will go the way of the dodo.

We went to a Chinese Buffet here in our hometown a few weeks ago and it was self serve. And we live in Ohio, which seems to have the strictest safety measures in place!

 

[mevelandry]

We went to a Chinese Buffet here in our hometown a few weeks ago and it was self serve. And we live in Ohio, which seems to have the strictest safety measures in place!

Ew. Buffets were already gross pre-COVID...