When will Riviera Sell Out?

[Girlstar30]

Had a little fun with AI.


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Is this your vision for a new Riviera? Love it

 

[NVDISFamily]

Is this your vision for a new Riviera? Love it

Haha I would not call it my vision but just my attempt to sanity check my thoughts with reality to see if something like this could work into the space with the height restrictions as whatever goes there will likely be within the two to three story range and should also transition from the Riviera to the CBR theme. I could see something in the realm of the penthouse villas but not quite that insane and be a bridge product between the current 2BR villas in the tower and the 3BR villas. I would say they would be 2BR, still just sleep 9, but have an extra bathroom and larger dining/living areas that would be good for hosting your family.

A few more bits of fun with AI.

Need a good spot for food and with some rooftop dining/place to watch the fireworks.




And of course another spot for the kids to play -

 

[Girlstar30]

Haha I would not call it my vision but just my attempt to sanity check my thoughts with reality to see if something like this could work into the space with the height restrictions as whatever goes there will likely be within the two to three story range and should also transition from the Riviera to the CBR theme. I could see something in the realm of the penthouse villas but not quite that insane and be a bridge product between the current 2BR villas in the tower and the 3BR villas. I would say they would be 2BR, still just sleep 9, but have an extra bathroom and larger dining/living areas that would be good for hosting your family.

A few more bits of fun with AI.

Need a good spot for food and with some rooftop dining/place to watch the fireworks.


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And of course another spot for the kids to play -


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A outdoor bistro would be cool and appropriate giving it a nice French flair

 

[Flash_Sloth]

My crazy curve ball, they will expand Riviera into Aruba..... Add a new Villa type or two, a solid pool with a lazy river or something awesome, and sell a few million points. Last time we stayed there 80% of the people on the bus at the end of the night were CBR/Aruba people who said they got in the Riviera bus line as it was way shorter and closer than CBR's busses. Might as well make it official

And on the flip side, there have been times when I was staying at RIV and I took the CBR bus to either Aruba or Martinique because the CBR bus was there and RIV's wasn't yet.

And the AI must think that it is close to an actual Caribbean beach because it put some ocean in the background of one of the pics. But it would be interesting to see some more development & expansion close to RIV.

But back to RIV selling out, it has me thinking... RIV will be the first resort with resale restrictions to sell out. We've already seen that on the resale market, its resale values have taken a beating. DVC is setting themselves up to mint money by ROFRing cheap resale contracts and washing them to direct contracts eligible for trade into all DVC properties. Assuming they execute on this plan, they may have 100% of points declared into inventory, but will they ever really be sold out?

I guess the closest analogy is when they ROFR an OKW-2042 and sell it direct as an OKW-E-2057, but I think that resale restrictions devalue RIV more.

 

[PolyRob]

Also note how close RIV is to Epcot. That’s why many hope that someday Disney will build another entrance to World Showcase, along with a safe way to cross Buena Vista Dr. there (I think it would require a pedestrian bridge like they have at Disney Springs).

If this is going to happen it needs to occur before any expansion. I just want a walkable Epcot resort with more than 16 years left

 

[airjay75]

But back to RIV selling out, it has me thinking... RIV will be the first resort with resale restrictions to sell out. We've already seen that on the resale market, its resale values have taken a beating. DVC is setting themselves up to mint money by ROFRing cheap resale contracts and washing them to direct contracts eligible for trade into all DVC properties. Assuming they execute on this plan, they may have 100% of points declared into inventory, but will they ever really be sold out?

I guess the closest analogy is when they ROFR an OKW-2042 and sell it direct as an OKW-E-2057, but I think that resale restrictions devalue RIV more.

Not sure whether RIV resale been taking a beating or just staying relatively stable (albeit, with a pretty steep drop off from direct pricing compared to non-restricted resorts). According to the site sponsor's data, looks pretty stable year over year. According to Fidelity, looks like 2024 prices were about $10 pp less than the first two years of resale prices. I feel like it's hard to conclude a whole lot definitive from this data.

That said, it is certainly indisputable that the resale restrictions mean you have a pretty big "driving the new car off the lot" effect that you don't have at say, someplace like Poly. And, to your point, this will make it much more easily profitable for Disney to ROFR resale RIV contracts and resell them direct at a premium once the resort is "sold out." I know some people worry that you'll have a lot of RIV resale contracts out there where you can only book at RIV, and so the 7-11 month window will be really bad compared to other resorts . . . but, maybe Disney's plan is just to make it all that easier to ROFR and re-sell those points direct. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the long run.

 

[Mouseforward]

I think a RIV 2 is likely and I agree it will be in what is now Aruba to take advantage of the close Skyliner.

Despite all the awesome AI images in the thread that would have me buying points in a second, I think we are looking at clone of the existing RIV / PIT / LL - towers are just too profitable. I regretfully think the heavy themed resort is a thing of the past.

 

[Girlstar30]

Not sure whether RIV resale been taking a beating or just staying relatively stable (albeit, with a pretty steep drop off from direct pricing compared to non-restricted resorts). According to the site sponsor's data, looks pretty stable year over year. According to Fidelity, looks like 2024 prices were about $10 pp less than the first two years of resale prices. I feel like it's hard to conclude a whole lot definitive from this data.

That said, it is certainly indisputable that the resale restrictions mean you have a pretty big "driving the new car off the lot" effect that you don't have at say, someplace like Poly. And, to your point, this will make it much more easily profitable for Disney to ROFR resale RIV contracts and resell them direct at a premium once the resort is "sold out." I know some people worry that you'll have a lot of RIV resale contracts out there where you can only book at RIV, and so the 7-11 month window will be really bad compared to other resorts . . . but, maybe Disney's plan is just to make it all that easier to ROFR and re-sell those points direct. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the long run.

I've just learned that if I like riv thats what im going for and who cares about the resale restrictions.

Because with the way things are going, we're all going to take a big hit if we have to sell down the line sooner than expected.

As discussed in the thread that I have given up on trying to read all of it, if this commercial rental clampdown happens, we're all taking a hit.

In 2042, we're all taking a hit.

If i bought poly tower and had to use the amount of points they command for a one bedroom, im taking a hit. If I buy any other resort from now on that will most likely have resale restrictions, taking a hit.

Things are changing rapidly and not in the favor of resale values that are all on the way to zero. I am not expecting for prices to rise like they have in the past and sell my memberships for more, with high point charts, resale restrictions, rtus and clampdowns, its a whole new ballgame for us noobs buying in lol.

 

[airjay75]

I've just learned that if I like riv thats what im going for and who cares about the resale restrictions.

Because with the way things are going, we're all going to take a big hit if we have to sell down the line sooner than expected.

As discussed in the thread that I have given up on trying to read all of it, if this commercial rental clampdown happens, we're all taking a hit.

In 2042, we're all taking a hit.

If i bought poly tower and had to use the amount of points they command for a one bedroom, im taking a hit. If I buy any other resort from now on that will most likely have resale restrictions, taking a hit.

Things are changing rapidly and not in the favor of resale values that are all on the way to zero. I am not expecting for prices to rise like they have in the past and sell my memberships for more, with high point charts, resale restrictions, rtus and clampdowns, its a whole new ballgame for us noobs buying in lol.

I think @Brian Noble had the best comment on another thread I read sometime the past week - these are timeshares, they are toys. Treat them like you're spending money you won't ever get back, but that you'll be able to use for many years of family memories. The resale value makes it seem more palatable, but none of us should be buying these based on recouping our upfront costs. If we end up recouping some of the costs, great, but don't count on it. Ok, ready for my next 300 RIV points - calling my guide tomorrow! (only half joking )

 

[Girlstar30]

I think @Brian Noble had the best comment on another thread I read sometime the past week - these are timeshares, they are toys. Treat them like you're spending money you won't ever get back, but that you'll be able to use for many years of family memories. The resale value makes it seem more palatable, but none of us should be buying these based on recouping our upfront costs. If we end up recouping some of the costs, great, but don't count on it. Ok, ready for my next 300 RIV points - calling my guide tomorrow! (only half joking )

Pass me the line after

 

[muppets3d]

Buying Riviera resale is a great option as well, for those of us who have "enough" unrestricted points but just need a little more gas in the tank for Riviera stays.

 

[kilik64]

Ah ok I didn't realize that, thanks for clarifying, that does make a difference in my favor! Do you know what percent is sold that anyone has reported?

I skimmed so if was already answered, sorry, but last numbers had it 77.5% sold at end of April. Its probably pretty close to 80% now. DVCnews.com should have an article for May in the next week or two.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...ation-club-direct-sales-report-for-april-2025

Technically I think it could sell out at like 95% sold, depends on when DVC wants to declare it sold out. They have to keep a minimum of 2% but I don't think there is a rule/law against them keeping more?

 

[Girlstar30]

I skimmed so if was already answered, sorry, but last numbers had it 77.5% sold at end of April. Its probably pretty close to 80% now. DVCnews.com should have an article for May in the next week or two.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...ation-club-direct-sales-report-for-april-2025

Technically I think it could sell out at like 95% sold, depends on when DVC wants to declare it sold out. They have to keep a minimum of 2% but I don't think there is a rule/law against them keeping more?

With sales slowing (I think) may have a little bit to go unless they pull out some good incentives, i can see it flying, the fomo is real

 

[sethschroeder]

My crazy curve ball, they will expand Riviera into Aruba

Said this years ago but:

Slowly replace sections of CBR in to "Europe" where each new area is a different part of Europe. Example Skyliner side of Aruba becomes a Switzerland themed resort, Martinique near Rivera becomes Spain, farther Aruba becomes Germany, and so on.

Put in a walking path entrance through the Africa Pavilion with a bridge to the Skyliner station near Riviera.

Finally open a shopping/eating district around the lake that surpasses the Boardwalk area with more parking in the area by adding a parking garage.

Will never happen though.

 

[Disney.dad]

One product missing with DVC is a room class with a double master suite or at least 2 king sized beds and a nicer 2nd bath. If you did a 3 bedroom with 2 masters and a 2-queen room it would be very popular if it even only slept 9. We would love to see this and even a super studio with a king bed and a washer and dryer with just a bit more room. They could charge 50% more points than a studio for probably just 33% more square footage and it would be great. Bigger mini fridge with defined freezer, washer and dryer and king bed and a little more space and it sells even without the separate soaking tub they could still do but that is probably too close to a 1 bedroom.

 

[The Jackal]

I believe at its current pace it will take about 30 months, sales are steadily decreasing though. DCV could do a fire sale and get it sold out like they did with VGF2.