When will Riviera Sell Out?

[AdamsMum]

...if they do some sort of special to get it sold?

How about dropping the resale restriction? I think it would have sold out long ago if not for that.

 

[Girlstar30]

How about dropping the resale restriction? I think it would have sold out long ago if not for that.

Agreed!

 

[davidhr]

I think you overestimate how much the average owner/potential owner cares or know about the restrictions.

 

[Girlstar30]

I think you overestimate how much the average owner/potential owner cares or know about the restrictions.

They would have definetely sold more points though if it weren't for restrictions. That has stopped some people and pushed them towards poly.

 

[davidhr]

They would have definetely sold more points though if it weren't for restrictions. That has stopped some people and pushed them towards poly.

Technically you’re right. There are some people who definitely haven’t bought direct because of the restrictions, meaning they have sold less points.

Enough to make a difference? Maybe. But my guess after speaking with a lot of owners is that it hasn’t.

 

[Girlstar30]

Technically you’re right. There are some people who definitely haven’t bought direct because of the restrictions, meaning they have sold less points.

Enough to make a difference? Maybe. But my guess after speaking with a lot of owners is that it hasn’t.

I see your point because after many months of debate with myself, I will still choose Riviera if I like it better albeit resale restrictions.

But the number of points sold for Poly VS Riviera in May speaks volumes. If Poly was selling even 10% more points than Riv maybe I wouldnt think anything of it. But 50% more. Something is up and its called restrictions.

 

[Royal Consort]

They would have definetely sold more points though if it weren't for restrictions. That has stopped some people and pushed them towards poly.

I don't think this is right.

Riviera was selling fantastically until Covid shut everything down and stalled sales. Sales for DVC took time to recover.

Riviera improved again and was outselling Grand Floridian when both were for sale for months. This only changed when Grand Floridian was discounted.

Riviera has demonstrated solid and consistent sales for the last couple of years.

You'll get older owners on these boards who say they won't buy due to restrictions but this is anecdotal and not a sales trend. Most points are sold to new owners anyway.

I don't like restrictions and I think Disney would have removed them if they were a substantial impediment to purchasing. I had hoped disney would remove them. But I don't think restricted resorts are less desirable to the purchaser than non-restricted resorts based on sales data.

Riviera is also older in the portfolio and prospective owners like the new kid on the block. Anything new will sell better than older stock just like Riviera outselling Copper Creek.

The biggest thing that would move more contracts? The price.

 

[Girlstar30]

I don't think this is right.

Riviera was selling fantastically until Covid shut everything down and stalled sales. Sales for DVC took time to recover.

Riviera improved again and was outselling Grand Floridian when both were for sale for months. This only changed when Grand Floridian was discounted.

Riviera has demonstrated solid and consistent sales for the last couple of years.

You'll get older owners on these boards who say they won't buy due to restrictions but this is anecdotal and not a sales trend. Most points are sold to new owners anyway.

I don't like restrictions and I think Disney would have removed them if they were a substantial impediment to purchasing. I had hoped disney would remove them. But I don't think restricted resorts are less desirable to the purchaser than non-restricted resorts based on sales data.

The biggest thing that would move more contracts? The price.

Riviera has better incentives than Poly because its not moving as quick. They wouldnt need to do that if it was as popular as poly.

Pit was built as an afterthought in a smallish space that used to be a luau for Polynesian with no real front desk and one bar and grill. Riv is its own dedicated hotel with skyliner to two parks and yet still not sold out. There is no reason they shouldn't be selling at the same pace as Poly so what is keeping people from buying Riv over Poly if not the restrictions?

Poly sold way more than Riv in May, a very significant amount more. We are talking about almost double, 72,000 points Poly vs 43,000 points. Huge, huge difference. Again, what is handicapping Rivs sales if not restrictions? Riv It has been on sale for 6 years and it is a very well liked resort, many would agree a resort that has the nicest rooms and the only one on sale closest to epcot which is very appealing to many.

Poly will sell out in a much shorter time. Take out the pandemic and its still selling slow for the popularity. Revenge travel should have boosted sales even more. I believe that it would be closer to selling out if it didnt have restrictions but thats just my take.

 

[Royal Consort]

Pit was built as an afterthought in a smallish space that used to be a luau for Polynesian with no real front desk and one bar and grill. Riv is its own dedicated hotel with skyliner to two parks and yet still not sold out. There is no reason they shouldn't be selling at the same pace so what is keeping people from buying Riv over Poly if not the restrictions?

Polynesian comes with a lot of history and its location to Magic Kingdom is preferable to the Riviera/skyliner location.

DVC have been selling several resorts simultaneously whereas in the past they would typically sell one.

As older DVC stock stays on the market, newer resorts out-perform the older resort. Copper Creek is amazing and yet Riviera outsold it when both were on sale. Then VGF overtook Riviera. Interestingly VGF slowed in sales (unrestricted resort) until Disney decided to fire sale it and it flew off the shelves.

There doesn't seem to be any statistics to support the view that restrictions have hurt Riviera sales. Further evidenced by VDH and CFW having them.

 

[Girlstar30]

Polynesian comes with a lot of history and its location to Magic Kingdom is preferable to the Riviera/skyliner location.

DVC have been selling several resorts simultaneously whereas in the past they would typically sell one.

As older DVC stock stays on the market, newer resorts out-perform the older resort. Copper Creek is amazing and yet Riviera outsold it when both were on sale.

There doesn't seem to be any statistics to support the view that restrictions have hurt Riviera sales. Further evidenced by VDH and CFW having them.

VDH and CFW are not selling as well and both have restrictions. Yes they have other issues, but by your reasoning, no one should think much about other issues.

VDH is part of the Disneyland hotel and is in California wheres theres only two resort options! And yet its selling around the same pace as Riv. Coincidence?

Agree to disagree, but no one will convince me that restrictions haven't scared a somewhat significant amount of people away from Riv and Disneyland hotel towards Poly.

 

[airjay75]

I may well be wrong, and I don't have any data to offer, but I am in the camp of thinking the resale restrictions have some effect on RIV sales. I just think it makes the product as a whole less attractive and feel like a riskier proposition.

You do the tour, you're interested, you really like the resort, but you're just a little curious and start asking, ok, this sounds great, but what if I change my mind in 10 years and decided I want out - how does that work? Your guide tells you about the resale restrictions, but that it will be on all new resorts (except PIT, the newest one for some reason that you don't really understand). Ok, so you decide to go home, sleep on it, and do the tiniest amount of research before dropping $50k on this new thing that you're considering. Not hard to discover the robust resale market, and not hard to find out that RIV resale really takes a big hit. Gives you pause, pixie dust wears off, and you decide to pass - just not convinced this isn't a bad move, which is what you've always thought about timeshares. (And, you're not going to meet these people in the hot tub because they never bought .)

Does that describe most buyers? Probably not, but I think there has to be a certain percentage (even if small) of potential buyers who decide to pass on RIV and that the presence of resale restrictions made the product seem less attractive than it would have absent them. Maybe they still would have passed, but I also think it is one thing that can give someone pause, and allow a little more time for the pixie dust to wear off.

 

[Royal Consort]

Not hard to discover the robust resale market, and not hard to find out that RIV resale really takes a big hit. Gives you pause, pixie dust wears off, and you decide to pass - just not convinced this isn't a bad move, which is what you've always thought about timeshares. (And, you're not going to meet these people in the hot tub because they never bought .)

Does that describe most buyers? Probably not, but I think there has to be a certain percentage (even if small) of potential buyers who decide to pass on RIV and that the presence of resale restrictions made the product seem less attractive than it would have absent them.

That's a reasonable conclusion and I'd agree with much of what you've said. There are those that pass on Riviera based on your thoughts above, but they seem to be in the margins (and on Disboards), but I still don't think its enough to have substantially hurt sales overall. I had hoped that wouldn't be the case. I am not a defender of restrictions. For years I had expected Disney to have such poor sales and rescind them. I waited and waited and then Riviera kept having solid monthly sales. So I've come around to the opinion that Disney is comfortable with them and perceive sales as good.

We purchased Riviera before it opened in spite of restrictions because we saw the purchase as an investment in vacationing and liked what the resort offered. We were far more concerned about buying Copper Creek because we book studios and I would much rather a restricted resort where I don't have to walk/fight for a studio in Autumn vs a resort that I'd have to go into battle for the next 45 years.

I am of the opinion that Disney need to firesale Riviera to get rid of the remaining 20% before any further murky economic times. Reducing the price <$180 moves DVC contracts like no tomorrow and clear the decks for LSL. I anticipate some FOMO from direct owners when Disney is down to the last 5% of inventory to grab a few more direct points before 'sold out' pricing hits.

 

[tx911]

That's a reasonable conclusion and I'd agree with much of what you've said. There are those that pass on Riviera based on your thoughts above, but they seem to be in the margins (and on Disboards), but I still don't think its enough to have substantially hurt sales overall. I had hoped that wouldn't be the case. I am not a defender of a restrictions. For years I had expected Disney to have such poor sales and rescind them. I waited and waited and then Riviera kept having solid monthly sales. So I've come around to the opinion that Disney is comfortable with them and perceive sales as good.

We purchased Riviera before it opened in spite of restrictions because we saw the purchase as an investment in vacationing and liked what the resort offered. We were far more concerned about buying Copper Creek because we book studios and I would much rather a restricted resort where I don't have to walk/fight for a studio in Autumn vs a resort that I'd have to go into battle for the next 45 years.

I am of the opinion that Disney need to firesale Riviera to get rid of the remaining 20% before any further murky economic times. Reducing the price <$180 moves DVC contracts like no tomorrow and clear the decks for LSL. I anticipate some FOMO from direct owners when Disney is down to the last 5% of inventory to grab a few more direct points before 'sold out' pricing hits.

I understand the reticence to own resale Riv, except perhaps as a supplement to Riv direct points.

Direct Riv I am fine with. Fantastic resort, low-key vibe, on the skyliner, not overly busy, many years of contract life left etc, etc. I couldn't care less about the depreciation hit.

 

[airjay75]

I am of the opinion that Disney need to firesale Riviera to get rid of the remaining 20% before any further murky economic times. Reducing the price <$180 moves DVC contracts like no tomorrow and clear the decks for LSL. I anticipate some FOMO from direct owners when Disney is down to the last 5% of inventory to grab a few more direct points before 'sold out' pricing hits.

I really hope you’re right about this . And, I hope I can hold out long enough for said fire sale.

 

[The Jackal]

RIV sold more vs VGF when the discounts were much better for RIV if I remember correctly. If they were close in price VGF sales were slightly higher. So basically DVC can sell anything if they make the discounts look attractive.

 

[BayTower2010]

There is no need for DVC to hurry on discounts for RIV. LSL will be at least 18 months before they start sale. So wait to see how sales go in the next 6 to 9 months. If sales continue to lag, DVC can then offer discounts to move it along. Let us not forget that almost 80% is sold, so 2 or 3 months of robust sales late summer early fall will push it close to being sold out. The big question is will DVC continue with resale restrictions on LSL. There seems plenty of evidence it is not popular. Early sales on any new resort are driven by existing DVC owners who are interested in expanding their portfolio. So resale restrictions will be a real drag upon opening sales. Could be DVC has decided they do not care and are set on making the restrictions the new normal. Just glad I bought all my points prior to these new restrictions.

 

[airjay75]

I think there is next to zero chance LSL will not have the same restrictions as RIV/CFW/VDH. They have made pretty clear that all new resorts will have the same resale restrictions. PIT is a different story because it joined the existing association - they probably couldn't impose the resale restrictions without putting the tower in a new association (assuming that was even possible legally), and that would have created a weird dynamic with 2 different DVC resorts within the same property.

Of course, none of us have a crystal ball, but I think, if there is ever an ability to bring resale contracts at the restricted resorts back into the fold, so to speak, it's going to involve handing over $$ to Disney.

 

[Sandisw]

How about dropping the resale restriction? I think it would have sold out long ago if not for that.

I honestly don’t think that makes a meaningful different to sales.

PVB tower is doing okay but sales there are not lifting things on fire.

The sales data over the years support thst price plays the biggest role and we have seen buyers choose RIV over a non restricted resort when the price difference was decent.

 

[Tatebeck]

Riviera is doing fine. Resale restrictions are overblown by people on here in the know and obsessed with value and strategy, but the average guest isn't thinking about selling their contract when they are buying it. If it worried them that much they wouldn't be in the market for a direct contract.

There are multiple reasons why the Poly Tower is selling more than RIV right now. Resale restrictions may be a tiny bit of that. But Poly is a very popular established resort that millions of people know the name of, have fond memories of, etc. And it is on the monorail loop nearby the most popular theme park in the world. Riviera is a new resort with no hotel component, no established fan base, and near parks yes, but less popular parks than the Magic Kingdom. RIV has also had years to get the initially interested members to buy in there. Poly Tower has only had months, we could just still be seeing the initial interest numbers, with members waiting until closer to their use year to buy when they were set on buying all along. Also Poly has a higher point chart, where the same number of nights will require more points for the same length of stay.

I'm sure there are some members who did not buy RIV because of resale restrictions, but in a weird way it actually steered me TOWARDS buying RIV direct instead of Poly. If you like both resorts and may end up owing both eventually and you want some sort of direct points, then RIV direct plus Poly resale (full resort availability and O14 resort availability) is much more flexible than Poly Direct and RIV resale (full resort availability and only RIV availability)

I don't think resale restrictions are going anywhere and it is a long term play for DVC. Once Poly sells out, that may be the last time they sell a new resort without restrictions unless they do another expansion project soon. Aulani may never sell out and has been around a while out so I'm not counting it lol. It's also not a Disney Parks resort.

As time goes on and more and more resorts open and then some close in 2042, the unrestricted resale product will get worse and worse while the direct points will get better and better. That is what Disney wants, to try and get all the buyers to look at direct points if they want points.

Right now resale looks great, because its O14 resorts for a much lower price compared to All 18 including the in process lakeshore lodge. Most resale points are a huge savings and still get 14 out of 18 resorts to access. That becomes a different story deep into the future when its the O14 resorts vs 25 or 30 total resorts. And then only the remaining original 9ish resorts come 2042. After that you may have access to less than 1/3rd of the resorts with older resort resale contracts, 1 resort with newer resort resale contracts and full access (to 25, 30, even more?) with direct points (plus any additional direct perks they may have come up with by then). If resale prices drop low enough they can just buy some points back and flip them back direct. They likely are fin with or want a bigger difference in Direct vs Resale contracts, that is what they can use to drive members to buy direct.

 

[sethschroeder]

They would have definetely sold more points though if it weren't for restrictions. That has stopped some people and pushed them towards poly.

RIV outsold CCV over same amount of time (adjusted for when they both first went on sale) up until COVID.

RIV was selling like gangbusters but COVID derailed it then Disney released two of the best resorts with an add-on for VGF and fixing the room types at POLY.

RIV not selling out comes down directly to COVID and DVC choices with POLY/VGF.

Best December in 8 years back in 2019 when Riviera finally opened and people saw it: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...propels-dvc-to-best-december-sales-in-8-years

They were expecting even further growth to sales numbers at Riviera until Covid hit: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...20-the-beginning-of-a-new-era-in-direct-sales


EDIT: for clarity