(When) will DVC go “negative”?

[davidhr]

No legit data published data but I have seen around the 6 day mark. I just always use 7 as its a nice round number for the week.

You can think about it this way that every day the chance the person leaving their hotel room hits up a specific park is:
MK - 36%, Epcot - 25%, HS - 21%, AK - 18%
*even this could be off though based on locals or special ticket promos

If someone ends up in Epcot again it would be strange for them to skip where a majority of food and 2 of the top 3 attractions is. That was really my only view.

If we really want to go with the 6 day length then it would mean 50% of people would hit Epcot 2x and 50% would only hit Epcot 1x for their stay.

Running some quick back-of-the-napkin-super-difficult-calculation taking those numbers as they are, a visitor with a 7 day single park ticket will visit Epcot 1.75 times. That’s the point I would say “Most visitors will visit Epcot twice during their trip”. Of course, park hoppers will need less days. But as you mentioned, locals also affect these numbers in the other direction. So let’s assume that’s a wash (probably it isn’t, but I have no idea if it’s one way or the other).

So based on the assumptions that the chance of a visitor going to Epcot each day is 25% and the average park days per visit = 7, yes, we can say most visitors will visit Epcot at least twice during their visit. Anything under 7 and the chances are that it’ll be less than 2.

As there’s no way for us to know this, everyone can decide if 7 days looks ok or it’s too high to keep the discussion going

 

[DVCyore]

I can only assume anybody spending 7+ days at WDW with kids under 5 is a masochist.

Visitors from the UK and Ireland tend to spend 2 weeks at WDW due to the tickets available to them. The same goes for the vast majority of international guests (I know many other countries in the EU and Australia also buy the “UK” 14 day tickets)

 

[Cfabar1]

Visitors from the UK and Ireland tend to spend 2 weeks at WDW due to the tickets available to them. The same goes for the vast majority of international guests (I know many other countries in the EU and Australia also buy the “UK” 14 day tickets)

I feel like a 14 day ticket and a stay at OKW go perfectly hand in hand...

 

[atthebeachclub]

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Visitors from the UK and Ireland tend to spend 2 weeks at WDW due to the tickets available to them. The same goes for the vast majority of international guests (I know many other countries in the EU and Australia also buy the “UK” 14 day tickets)

Funny thing…US and Canadian citizens can also buy the 14 day tickets, most just don’t realize it. I’ve bought them twice. They aren’t always a deal; it really depends on how many days you want to stay.

 

[Chili327]

Not arguing it because I have no data. Is there a source where we can see the average Disney trip length? I’ve a hard time believing the average WDW visitor hits a park twice during a trip. But that’s personal experience and not a fact, so happy to be proved wrong.

I usually have a 6-8 day hopper and I hit Epcot at least twice, probably more like 3-4 time per trip.
But I hardly ever only visit one park per day. I usually plan for one park in the day 10/11 to 4 then another park after 4-5pm to close.

 

[Sandisw]

Not arguing it because I have no data. Is there a source where we can see the average Disney trip length? I’ve a hard time believing the average WDW visitor hits a park twice during a trip. But that’s personal experience and not a fact, so happy to be proved wrong.

What I can say based on actual information via actual cash bookings, we do a lot more trips in the 4 to 5 night range than 7 nights.

More often than not, they do not choose park hoppers.

Repeat days tend to be MK or HS

They are hoping the new summer promo which allows you to get a 6 night trip for price of 4 gets people to stay longer!

 

[eticketplease]

I usually have a 6-8 day hopper and I hit Epcot at least twice, probably more like 3-4 time per trip.
But I hardly ever only visit one park per day. I usually plan for one park in the day 10/11 to 4 then another park after 4-5pm to close.

I commend your efforts!!

Even with AP's we are generally a one park per day family though unless we go and grab a bite to eat at Epcot or if its a Monday or Wednesday when Extended Evening hours are occuring.

 

[Mikey15]

You ever click on page 1 of a thread, read it, then try to jump to the current page and end up wondering “what happened!?” That’s me right now

Anyway, this got me thinking about the “negative value” of my in-laws Orlando-area timeshare. The property tax + maintenance fees on their 2-bedroom weeks are going up to $1,600 per week this year. This resort does offer bookings to cash guests, and the cash rates are usually higher than just the owners’ fees.

But the resort exchanges into RCI. Each week deposits into RCI at ~21 “Trading Power,” the currency unit for weeks in RCI to balance out exchanges. But get this: when you go to book an exchange week in RCI, the TPU per week can be lower than what the resort was worth when it was deposited. Usually it goes lower by 120 days out or 90 days out… the closer it gets to a “last call.” You can turn one week for $1,600 into 4 weeks for $2,800! (Each time you book an RCI exchange week there’s a $299 fee paid to RCI… $299 x4 in this example.)

RCI has cash bookings for members as well which function similarly to the exchange weeks in that they’re lower the closer you get to a stay, and well under owners’ maintenance fees. For this same Orlando-area resort, I just looked and there’s weeks from $499-$999 depending on how soon it’s coming up. Even at $999 it’s of course much cheaper than the maintenance fees owners are paying: negative value to ownership.

But you still need RCI… meaning owning a timeshare somewhere… to access that “better than owning there” value. And unlike DVC with II you have to pay $X per year to RCI for membership. To me DVC’s II access for even cash getaways at other resorts is a great value to the club. Even someone owning a 50pt SSR resale contract gets included II access to book some non-Disney “negative value” timeshare stays!

 

[eticketplease]

But you still need RCI… meaning owning a timeshare somewhere… to access that “better than owning there” value. And unlike DVC with II you have to pay $X per year to RCI for membership. To me DVC’s II access for even cash getaways at other resorts is a great value to the club. Even someone owning a 50pt SSR resale contract gets included II access to book some non-Disney “negative value” timeshare stays!

II through DVC is a nice perk for the cash getaways but we also have to own a timeshare just like in your RCI example.

I believe others with an II timeshare have to pay for II access as well while Disney includes the gold tier for us.

 

[Brian Noble]

Disney's hotel reservation tool defaults to six nights, and I have always assumed that represents at least one night worth of upsell. If you look at ticket prices, the marginal costs starts dropping off around day 5, which again I assume is partly an upsell. The fact that the two free days on this summer's ticket promotion doesn't kick in until 4 days is also a clue.

So, I'd be pretty comfortable betting that the median stay is somewhere around 4-5 nights. with something like 4-ish park days.
(Edited to add: which looks pretty close to what Sandi suggested she typically books.)

 

[Brian Noble]

I believe others with an II timeshare have to pay for II access as well while Disney includes the gold tier for us.

Most owners of individual weeks have to pay for exchange company access. Most of those who own a points-based mini-system, like DVC, Wyndham, or WorldMark, have one of the major exchanges paid for out of their club fees. Typically they can only excange their in-system time, so if they also own others those have to be paid separately. For example, despite the fact that I have a DVC-affiliated II account, I need to pay for a separate one to exchange my unbranded trader.

Wyndham used to allow their owners to deposit non-Wyndham weeks in their RCi accounts, but I am not sure if that is still true or not. My ex and I had a legacy RCI account with them that did allow this. We'll see what happens with my new account.

 

[davidhr]

Disney's hotel reservation tool defaults to six nights, and I have always assumed that represents at least one night worth of upsell. If you look at ticket prices, the marginal costs starts dropping off around day 5, which again I assume is partly an upsell. The fact that the two free days on this summer's ticket promotion doesn't kick in until 4 days is also a clue.

So, I'd be pretty comfortable betting that the median stay is somewhere around 4-5 nights. with something like 4-ish park days.
(Edited to add: which looks pretty close to what Sandi suggested she typically books.)

Just anecdotal, most of the time I take my non Disney family/friends, I have to work hard to convince them to get a 4 day ticket. It’s usually 2-3 park days and a universal day. Most have no interest in Animal Kingdom (even if they actually love it after they visit).

 

[Cfabar1]

Just anecdotal, most of the time I take my non Disney family/friends, I have to work hard to convince them to get a 4 day ticket. It’s usually 2-3 park days and a universal day. Most have no interest in Animal Kingdom (even if they actually love it after they visit).

So funny… for us that park is our 2nd favorite to visit….