What's the Next DVC Property?

[tidefan]

I mentioned this a couple places and don't seem to get any notice, but I still think they will tear down Aruba at CBR and add some kind of rooms on to RIV. CBR is usually the last moderate booked and Aruba is just too close to the skyliner, it's prime property and is currently a moderate.

 

[Wedgeout]

I mentioned this a couple places and don't seem to get any notice, but I still think they will tear down Aruba at CBR and add some kind of rooms on to RIV. CBR is usually the last moderate booked and Aruba is just too close to the skyliner, it's prime property and is currently a moderate.

Anything like this is possible. Riviera was originally a CBR resort take over.

 

[sachilles]

They'll never do it, but I'd love for them to convert a value resort property wing to studios only, similar to VGF2, and have the points per room be sufficiently cheap to attract a whole new market. Lets say 80pts for a week in a converted PoP room. Give everyone a taste of the dvc crack.

That being said, I think epcot area is due for another DVC property.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I don't find YC convincing, and it is because it is the main property they use for room guarantees for events at the convention center. While COVID has been hard on that business, it is bouncing back and they have lots of 2023 bookings for the center. Big events require 50% or more of BWI and YC and BC, plus some overflow.

I also don't find anything with CL convincing. Disney have clearly decided that they do not want to commit to that relationship for 50 years. It would have been simple to build CL into several projects after AKV - BLT, VGF1, Poly, VGF2 and RIV would have all been simple. CCV would not have been hard. I cannot see a sudden swing back when the clear direction has been not to commit to anything save a room for life of deed.

That said, I still can see a Contemporary Convention Center teardown or conversion of the Garden Wing as low hanging fruit.

 

[nuhusky123]

Another way to go is for dvc to make a new class of points that can only be used at that resort. This would allow dvc to convert moderate resorts like Caribbean to go dvc

this would then allow dvc to intro a lower price point than $207, say sub $200 for customers who perhaps can no longer afford the insane dvc deluxe prices

 

[DonMacGregor]

That said, I still can see a Contemporary Convention Center teardown or conversion of the Garden Wing as low hanging fruit.

I could see them tear down the Garden Rooms for sure. The only question is whether there is competent soil beneath those buildings, or bedrock at a reasonable depth, adequate to bear the weight of a matching BLT South tower. I don't see the upside to replacing the existing bungalow-style buildings with new, like-sized two or three story buildings. Plus, I like symmetry.

I think they are screwed with the convention center. Its location puts anything taking its place that's over two stories blocking out both the iconic view of the Contemporary from Seven Seas Lagoon, and conversely blocking views of the lagoon from all or part of the existing Contemporary Hotel A-Frame. Build a new tower where the Garden Rooms are, and convert the convention center to parking to mirror the existing BLT lot at the north end of the property.

 

[Dizzydizney]

I just looked at the satellite version on google maps for Bay Lake Tower and the area around it. I had NO idea that the Contemporary garden wing had such a large footprint! I could definitely see them doing something there...another Tower... low buildings equals less rooms. But the folks in the cabins would not be pleased. Maybe they just need to cool it for a while and let Riviera sell more points.
I think most people LOVE the Riviera but just HATE the resale restrictions. Truth be told, if I was thinking about purchasing a large GF contract, I would instead purchase Riviera, as the incentives are better, unless I was reading the add on tool wrong. True, the dues are higher, but the points chart is a bit lower. And the contract is longer.

 

[Jwaire]

I would love Yacht, but I have a feeling it's going to be Poly. Another beloved resort that can be cheaply flipped that's close to the park all the families want to visit.

I wish they would add 1 and 2 bedrooms instead of more studios though. The rumor is Luau Cove is done. So, tear it down and build your DVC tower full of lock-offs already, which you wanted to do when you first offered DVC there, and covert Fiji or Tuvalu. Throw a new themed pool (the size and scope of Stormalong Bay) and splash pad on that side of the property and people will go nuts.

They can't do anything with BWV or BCV because they both expire in 2042. The only other logical option would be Jambo, but then DVC members would be on the hook for all the animal maintenance.

 

[DebbieB]

I mentioned this a couple places and don't seem to get any notice, but I still think they will tear down Aruba at CBR and add some kind of rooms on to RIV. CBR is usually the last moderate booked and Aruba is just too close to the skyliner, it's prime property and is currently a moderate.

What’s usually left is the Pirate rooms (Trinidad).

 

[sethschroeder]

Why not just go bananas and keep flipping. Turn all of Wilderness Lodge DVC.

WL was just done with a refurb from my understanding.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I could see them tear down the Garden Rooms for sure. The only question is whether there is competent soil beneath those buildings, or bedrock at a reasonable depth, adequate to bear the weight of a matching BLT South tower. I don't see the upside to replacing the existing bungalow-style buildings with new, like-sized two or three story buildings. Plus, I like symmetry.

I think they are screwed with the convention center. Its location puts anything taking its place that's over two stories blocking out both the iconic view of the Contemporary from Seven Seas Lagoon, and conversely blocking views of the lagoon from all or part of the existing Contemporary Hotel A-Frame. Build a new tower where the Garden Rooms are, and convert the convention center to parking to mirror the existing BLT lot at the north end of the property.

I'd demo everything below the line (except the Contemporary tower obviously), and mirror everything above the line. Flip the BLT to where the Garden Rooms are currently to create BLT2, and flip the BLT parking lot down to where the convention center is now. Leave the Contemporary tower and the entrance esplanade as-is.

If you ignore BLT and the Garden Rooms, the site is amazingly symmetrical.

 

[Jwaire]

As for BLT, there was a rumor they planned on building Bay Lake Tower 2 and replacing the other garden wing. That's why the building is round because it was going to form a hidden Mickey.

Edit: Article also talks about why the Contemporary Convention Center is no longer as popular. So, theoretically it could torn down.

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/orlan...-wing-at-the-contemporary/Content?oid=2518427

 

[Wedgeout]

WL was just done with a refurb from my understanding.

Then let’s start selling points Monday!!

 

[nuhusky123]

I would bet good money next dvc will do another hotel room flip. That means no new construction.

gfv - no just did it

poly - good option but only when gfv2 is sold out. I’d say more likely than contemporary. The con against poly is it sells cash rooms pretty easily

contemp - good option but wont be new construction And also only when gfv2 sold out. this one doesn’t feel likely to me though for some reason

bwv - good option but would have to be new association as current expires too soon

bc - same issue as bwv

yc - good option but new association. Of the Epcot resorts I’d peg this most likely given all 3 need a new association and yc is only one without dvc today. Yc would also sell like hotcakes

Riv - already on sale

akl - already has a ton of rooms. Could do another jambo floor

looking at the above list I still think yc is most likely near term although akl could win it and really the only option if they want to open new sales before gfv is sold out. I think akl already has a ton of dvc rooms and although easily possible less attractive for sales

When gfv is sold out contemporary or poly could come into play.

but Id wager it’s yc for the reasons above and to double down the only resort that we don’t already own and in an amazing location. It would beca fire sale and dvc would be beating us off with a stick

 

[sachilles]

If you are going to tear down a building, just to build another in it's spot, why wouldn't you just build new at the Reflections site? Coversions need to utilize existing bones to make it worth while.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I like Paul Krieger's idea where, in 2042, they could sell Yacht Club as a brand new DVC resort and fully gut Beach Club for cash.

I think this might happen, in which case, I’ll never be interested. We don’t have kids. Buying in 2042 is way too long and buying now is way too short. I have 225 SSR points that I’m going to start using exclusively as network points. 3-5 days in a 1BR at BCV is much more accessible than a studio, so I can see us doing that when it becomes available.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I just looked at the satellite version on google maps for Bay Lake Tower and the area around it. I had NO idea that the Contemporary garden wing had such a large footprint! I could definitely see them doing something there...another Tower... low buildings equals less rooms. But the folks in the cabins would not be pleased. Maybe they just need to cool it for a while and let Riviera sell more points.
I think most people LOVE the Riviera but just HATE the resale restrictions. Truth be told, if I was thinking about purchasing a large GF contract, I would instead purchase Riviera, as the incentives are better, unless I was reading the add on tool wrong. True, the dues are higher, but the points chart is a bit lower. And the contract is longer.

Yep, just remove the resale restrictions, and CHA CHING!! No luggage set needed.

 

[DonMacGregor]

If you are going to tear down a building, just to build another in it's spot, why wouldn't you just build new at the Reflections site? Conversions need to utilize existing bones to make it worth while.

The first reason to tear down and build new is that the current site has already proven to be suitable and the underlying soil/bedrock competent for at least some level of development. Second, infrastructure. WDW is a swamp, just trenching for underground utilities is a significant undertaking. Trenches for sewer, water, gas, electric, etc. would require shoring, dewatering, etc. I could easily see the need to slot cut for cutoff walls filled with bentonite just to keep a trench stable during excavation, utility placement, and backfill. All of those elements are already in place at an existing site, and between the Garden Rooms and the convention center at the Contemporary, they likely have adequate capacity to support an additional tower. Even if they prove inadequate, the basic infrastructure is still in place and much more easily upgraded than placing all new facilities. Third, they don't need a whole new resort, just new resort rooms.

I wouldn't opt for conversions, especially as time progresses and existing structures age. I WOULD demo and re-build on existing developed land.

 

[davidl81]

Out of everything mentioned BLT2 or YC DVC seems the most realistic to me. BLT2 would be a much longer term project though. YC could be put on sale right when VGF2 sells out (which if you believe my guide will be in like 6 months lol).

 

[BrianLo]

VGF2 seems like a special circumstance. A rare cross-over of a very desirable DVC location (resale was reaching the highest dollar per point) with a bunch of cash rooms Disney struggled to fill.

Unless they have a block of rooms they are struggling to sell consistently for cash, I see them building new. Which could still include a new tack-on. But new construction as opposed to a gut of an existing cash site.

VGF2 thought essentially just buys them a couple of years to decide. They have so many unsold points AND DLT upcoming that they have time to figure out the cadence of points this coming year before they need to commit.