What's in a BLT? - Or, Configuration of the Tower *UPDATED 11/23*

[arthur06]

Thanks, Greysword. Its been fun tracking BLT's progress. I hope the information is of use to the DVC members.

As for the TOWL: I'm not sure of the significance of DVD declaring the TOWL's space for the leasehold condominium. Keep in mind DVD just declared the space -- not the food and beverage operation. At the least, I think it means that Disney has to pay rent to the BLT condominium if it operates a bar or food service in that space. I'm almost absolutely positive we, as BLT owners, will not share in any profits realized by the bar or food service. But I see that as a good thing because it also means we are protected against losses as well.

Even though the BLT owners may 'own' the space occupied by the TOWL, there is no guarantee that Disney will continue to operate the TOWL. Disney could close it down tomorrow and convert it into a quiet reading lounge.

As a BLT owner, I've enjoyed going up to the TOWL to check out the views, get a drink and a BLT (yes, they actually have a BLT flatbread on the menu), and watch the fireworks. But if I was running Disney, I'd think about making that space available to the Disney brides for ceremonies and wedding receptions. I think Disney charges $3,600 for the Wedding Pavilion at the Grand Floridian. Surely it could charge even more for catering an affair on the 16th floor of the BLT.

Thanks for all your hard work on tracking this... now take a few months/years off and get back to it with Grand Floridian...

 

[work2play]

WDRL: Fabulous work! Your work definitely inspired me to create the views thread! Thanks for your dedication!

 

[wdrl]

For the first time since the Fall of 2008, BLT is no longer the sales leader among DVC resorts. In August 2011, BLT ranked third in Vacation Points sold with 40,872 points, trailing both SSR (101,003 points) and AKV (84,864 points).

Given the increase in BLT's base price to $150 a point, this drop in sales was not unexpected. SSR's base price is only $99 a point, while AKV's price is as low as $100 a point with special incentives.

BLT is fully declared for the DVC membership. As of August 31, 2011, 90.68% of BLT's 5.7 million points have been sold to the public. This percentage reflects 43,547 points previously sold to the public that were reacquired by DVD through foreclosure proceedings, exercising its Right of First Refusal on resale transactions, and other buybacks.

The February Use Year is the most common UY at BLT, accounting for well over a third of BLT's total points. October is the least common UY at BLT; it is about one-eighth the size of the February UY.

 

[dizfan]

As wdrl points out, our numbers don't match exactly. It's a very manual and time consuming task. However, our numbers provide a good idea of the overall sales.

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 8/31/2011.

32,417 total contracts
5,237,922 total points sold

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1212	199314
Feb09		1259	190775
Mar09		1385	237514
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		939	165100
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1805	289768
Aug09		1363	227820
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1231	210184
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		651	109680
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		769	126195
Jul10		777	123971
Aug10		1036	167516
Sep10		750	118854
Oct10		888	139920
Nov10		1014	150167
Dec10		1454	205608
Jan11		974	145121
Feb11		642	98835
Mar11		1048	160787
Apr11		793	133035
May11		622	105435
Jun11		930	145646
Jul11		576	88124
Aug11		271	40762

For reference of price changes and how they impact sales. Keep in mind contracts take 2+ weeks to show up on the OCC.
BLT went from $112 to $120/pt on November 1, 2009.
BLT went from $120 to $130/pt in early December, 2010.
BLT went from $130/pt to $140/pt in June, 2011.
BLT just went from $140/pt to $150/pt in August, 2011.

 

[wdrl]

With only 23,861 points sold in September 2011, BLT recorded its lowest monthly point total since sales began in the Fall of 2008. For the second consecutive month, BLT ranked third in Vacation Points sold, trailing both SSR (103,982 points) and AKV (61,129 points).

Apparently, the increase in BLT's base price to $150 a point has put a significant damper on its sales. By comparison, SSR's base price is only $99 a point, while AKV's base price is $120, but can be as low as $100 a point with special incentives. Another factor that may be dampening BLT sales is that DVD is not emphasizing BLT during its sales presentations. Anecdoctal information from some disboard members indicate that AKV was featured during the DCL member cruise.

BLT is fully declared for the DVC membership. As of September 30, 2011, 91.02% of BLT's 5.7 million points have been sold to the public. This percentage reflects 47,767 points previously sold to the public that were reacquired by DVD through foreclosure proceedings, exercising its Right of First Refusal on resale transactions, and other buybacks.

DVD can only sell 98% of a DVC resort's points to the general public. Based on points sold and reacquired, there are only about 400,000 points left that DVD can sell.

The February Use Year is the most common UY at BLT, accounting for well over a third of BLT's total points. October is the least common UY at BLT; it is about one-eighth the size of the February UY.

 

[DenLo]

I think it's becoming more obvious that DVD does not feel the need to sell BLT's remaining points. They still have plenty of cash guests that are willing shell out the big bucks each night for a reservation. So what's DVD's incentive to sell out BLT? Either someone will pay $150 per point or they'll reserve a 2BR villa for $7400 for a week. Sure that's only $377,400 for a year (51 weeks) for one 2BR. But it paying the bills.

I just noticed that there are approximately 4 million points left to be sold based on the maximum to DVC. That's a nice number for DVD to keep hold of.

 

[dizfan]

As wdrl points out, our numbers don't match exactly. It's a very manual and time consuming task. However, our numbers provide a good idea of the overall sales.

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 9/30/2011.

32,576 total contracts
5,261,733 total points sold

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1212	199314
Feb09		1259	190775
Mar09		1385	237514
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		939	165100
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1805	289768
Aug09		1363	227820
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1231	210184
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		651	109680
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		769	126195
Jul10		777	123971
Aug10		1036	167516
Sep10		750	118854
Oct10		888	139920
Nov10		1014	150167
Dec10		1454	205608
Jan11		974	145121
Feb11		642	98835
Mar11		1048	160787
Apr11		793	133035
May11		622	105435
Jun11		930	145646
Jul11		576	88124
Aug11		271	40762
Sep11		159	23811

For reference of price changes and how they impact sales. Keep in mind contracts take 2+ weeks to show up on the OCC.
BLT went from $112 to $120/pt on November 1, 2009.
BLT went from $120 to $130/pt in early December, 2010.
BLT went from $130/pt to $140/pt in June, 2011.
BLT just went from $140/pt to $150/pt in August, 2011.

During our recent stay (BLT, SSR, BWV) we noticed a card on the table where DVC is advertising "As of August 1st, 2011 Bay Lake Tower at Disney's Contemporary Resort is 93% sold out". However, when we talked with various DVC CMs and toured the DVC Preview Center at SSR they did not mention BLT. Indicating that DenLo is likely correct that they are happy to sell the remaining points for $150/pt and use any unsold points for cash reservations.

 

[dizfan]

As wdrl points out, our numbers don't match exactly. It's a very manual and time consuming task. However, our numbers provide a good idea of the overall sales.

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 10/31/2011.

32,705 total contracts
5,280,595 total points sold

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1212	199314
Feb09		1259	190775
Mar09		1385	237514
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		939	165100
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1805	289768
Aug09		1363	227820
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1231	210184
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		651	109680
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		769	126195
Jul10		777	123971
Aug10		1036	167516
Sep10		750	118854
Oct10		888	139920
Nov10		1014	150167
Dec10		1454	205608
Jan11		974	145121
Feb11		642	98835
Mar11		1048	160787
Apr11		793	133035
May11		622	105435
Jun11		930	145646
Jul11		576	88124
Aug11		271	40762
Sep11		159	23811
Oct11		129	18862

For reference of price changes and how they impact sales. Keep in mind contracts take 2+ weeks to show up on the OCC.
BLT went from $112 to $120/pt on November 1, 2009.
BLT went from $120 to $130/pt in early December, 2010.
BLT went from $130/pt to $140/pt in June, 2011.
BLT just went from $140/pt to $150/pt in August, 2011.

I suspect DenLo is correct that DVC is happy to sell the remaining points for $150/pt and use any unsold points for cash reservations.
The higher price also make SSR and AKV prices look much more attractive to potential buyers.

 

[wdrl]

It is quite obvious that BLT is no longer the focal point of DVD's marketing efforts. With only 18,862 points sold, BLT recorded its lowest monthly sales amount since sales began in September 2008. To understand how low sales have dipped at BLT, one must remember that the 18,862 points sold in October 2011 is about 122,000 points less than what was sold at BLT in October 2010. BLT ranked third in sales behind SSR (91,655 points) and AKV (45,786 points).

Despite the drop in sales, DVD has sold about 93.15% of the points it is authorized to sell at BLT. This reflects 51,239 points that DVD has reacquired through foreclosure proceedings, exercising its Right of First Refusal, and other buyback reasons.

DVD can only sell 98% of a DVC resort's points to the general public. Based on points sold and reacquired, there are only about 384,657 points left that DVD can sell.

The February Use Year is the most common UY at BLT, accounting for well over a third of BLT's total points. October is the least common UY at BLT; it is about one-eighth the size of the February UY.

 

[wdrl]

In November 2011, DVD sold 21,977 points for BLT. Although an increase of 3,115 points over the prior month, it is a far cry from when BLT was the focal point of DVD's marketing efforts.

As of the end of November, DVD has sold 93.51% of the points it can sell to the general public. Including the points that it has reacquired via foreclosures, ROFR activity, and other buybacks, DVD has less than 365,000 points to sell before it has sold 98% of BLT's total points, the maximum amount of points that it can sell to the general public.

With DVD's current marketing focus on Aulani, AKV, SSR, and soon-to-be Villas at Grand Floridian, BLT's sales will probably continue to fluctuate around 20,000 points a month. At that rate of sales, DVD should have BLT points available for quite some time, and it may be well over a year before it begins to experience shortages in some of the individual Use Years.

 

[wdrl]

In December 2011, BLT recorded 27,499 points sold, an improvement over the previous month when only 21,977 points were sold. These sales numbers are well below BLT's historical average of over 140,000 points a month, which indicates that DVD is no longer actively marketing BLT to prospective buyers.

DVD has sold about 93.9% of the maximum number of points it can sell at BLT. This reflects 58,139 BLT points that DVD has reacquired through foreclosure proceedings, exercising its Right of First Refusal, and other buyback reasons.

100% of BLT has been declared for the DVC inventory, which means that all 281 of BLT's Vacation Homes can be booked by Vacation Club members using points.

February is the most common Use Year at BLT, while October is the least common Use Year. As of the end of 2011, DVD only had about 11,278 October UY points and 14,870 September UY points remaining in its inventory of unsold points. However, DVD has yet to use points from five BLT Units (01B, 01C, 20B, 90B, and 91A) to support sales. These five Units, which account for 133,175 points, have not yet been assigned to a specific Use Year. Unless DVD assigns one or more of these Units to the October or September UYs, prospective buyers wanting those UYs may experience difficulty obtaining those UYs in the near future.

 

[work2play]

In December 2011, BLT recorded 27,499 points sold, an improvement over the previous month when only 21,977 points were sold. These sales numbers are well below BLT's historical average of over 140,000 points a month, which indicates that DVD is no longer actively marketing BLT to prospective buyers.

DVD has sold about 93.9% of the maximum number of points it can sell at BLT. This reflects 58,139 BLT points that DVD has reacquired through foreclosure proceedings, exercising its Right of First Refusal, and other buyback reasons.

100% of BLT has been declared for the DVC inventory, which means that all 281 of BLT's Vacation Homes can be booked by Vacation Club members using points.

February is the most common Use Year at BLT, while October is the least common Use Year. As of the end of 2011, DVD only had about 11,278 October UY points and 14,870 September UY points remaining in its inventory of unsold points. However, DVD has yet to use points from five BLT Units (01B, 01C, 20B, 90B, and 91A) to support sales. These five Units, which account for 133,175 points, have not yet been assigned to a specific Use Year. Unless DVD assigns one or more of these Units to the October or September UYs, prospective buyers wanting those UYs may experience difficulty obtaining those UYs in the near future.

Yes, I have been concerned about that too as a September use year owner. I stocked up right before the resale change to make sure that I would not be caught with none available later. Maybe with the new Grand Floridian units, some BLT owners will shift over to the GF...

 

[wdrl]

In January 2012, BLT recorded 33,349 points sold, the most number of points sold since August 2011, when 40,872 points were sold.

BLT has not been the focal point of Disney Vacation Development's marketing effects for about six months. Now, reports are surfacing that DVD is beginning to experience shortages in the number of points available for sale for some of the Use Years at BLT, as well as SSR. On another thread, Tjkraz reported that Guides have to check if there is enough points in DVD's inventory at both BLT and SSR before they can commit to a direct sale.

I have modified the chart on BLT sales to show the number of unsold points available for each UY. As of January 31, 2012, DVD had 426,653 points unsold at BLT. However, since DVD cannot sell more than 98% of BLT's points to the general public, it actually only has a maximum of 311,982 points it can sell to the public. This reflects 61,389 BLT points that DVD has reacquired through foreclosure proceedings, exercising its Right of First Refusal on resale transactions, and other buyback reasons.

DVD has four Units (01B, 01C, 90B, and 91A) containing 113,535 points that it has not yet used to support sales. Until DVD begins using a Unit to support sales, it is unknown which Use Year the points will be assigned. Currently, the October UY, which is the least common UY at BLT, also has the fewest number of points - 10,368 - still unsold. The February UY, which is also the most common UY at BLT, has the most number of points unsold.

 

[luckyman_apd]

What exactly do all these numbers mean? I understand the chart and all, and what is left to be sold, but does this affect us in someway? And where do you get all this information from?

 

[wdrl]

What exactly do all these numbers mean? I understand the chart and all, and what is left to be sold, but does this affect us in someway? And where do you get all this information from?

The data is collected from real estate deeds filed and recorded with the Orange County Comptroller. Since the deeds are public records, they can be viewed on OCC's website at https://officialrecords.occompt.com/recorder/eagleweb/docSearch.jsp.

With much of BLT sold, the data may be helpful if anyone is thinking of buying points at BLT. There are still points available in all UYs at BLT, but the supply is obviously declining.

At AKV, only 66.66% of its points have been sold. At its current rate of sales, the date indicates that AKV is many, many months away from being sold out. More importantly, the data shows that almost 75% of AKV has been declared for the DVC inventory. This means that on any given Use Day, only 75% of AKV is available for members to book using points. The rest belongs to DVD for its use.

 

[wdrl]

In February 2012, DVD sold 31,501 points for BLT, which is about 5.5% less than in January 2012.

BLT has not been the focal point of Disney Vacation Development's marketing efforts since about June 2011. For the first six months of 2011, BLT averaged 132,711 points sold a month. Since then, BLT has sold an average of 30,963 points a month.

As of February 29, 2012, DVD has sold 5,337,088 of BLT's 5,733,530 total points. Since DVD cannot sell more than 98% of BLT's total points, it has a maximum of 281,771 that it still sell to the general public. This number reflects 62,679 points that DVD has reacquired from owners through foreclosure proceedings, exercising its right of first refusal on resale transactions, and other buyback reasons. Keep in mind that DVD may decide to keep more than 2% of BLT's points for itself. Thus, the actual number of points it is willing to sell to the public may be much less than 281,771.

BLT still has three Units that DVD has not used to support sales: 01B, 01C, and 91A. Thus, the Use Years for those three Units, which account for 78,560 points, is unknown. As the chart below shows, February is the most common UY at BLT, while October is the least common UY. The chart below also shows the number of points by UY that DVD has in its inventory.

 

[wdrl]

BLT is no longer being actively marketed by DVD, and its monthly sales figures reflect this fact. In May 2012, DVD sold only 32,504 points at BLT. A year ago in May 2011, when BLT was still the focal point of DVD's sales activities, BLT had 106,120 points sold.

According to my data, the number of October Use Year points that can be sold to the general public is no more than 6,770 points. Actually, the number is probably much less because of sales already in the pipeline and October points that DVD has used for its own cash reservations. Plus, DVD is required to hold back at least 2% of BLT's total points irrespective of UY. If it decides to hold back 2% of the October UY points, then there are less than a 1,000 October UY points that can be sold.

It would be interesting to hear if any BLT buyers are being placed on wait lists for certain UYs.

More information about monthly sales is available here: http://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program/financial/1975-monthly-sales-data-for-may-2012

 

[Friend of Figment]

Hubby and I purchased BLT in May of this year and were told the only UY available was December...for October we would be placed on a waiting list. December worked out fine for us, but I think you are right in saying there is not much available for the October UY.

 

[wdrl]

Hubby and I purchased BLT in May of this year and were told the only UY available was December...for October we would be placed on a waiting list. December worked out fine for us, but I think you are right in saying there is not much available for the October UY.

Thanks for the feedback about being placed on a wait list had you wanted an October UY!

 

[DizMomAndWife]

I know this is an (really) old thread, but I saw it referenced somewhere else and wondered if the pictures from the original post are available anywhere? It appears photo bucket has changed their rules, so the pictures no longer show up. Thank you!