What's in a BLT? - Or, Configuration of the Tower *UPDATED 11/23*

[dizfan]

As wdrl points out, our numbers don't match exactly. It's a very manual and time consuming task. However, our numbers provide a good idea of the overall sales.

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 4/30/2011.

30,018 total contracts
4,857,895 total points sold

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1212	199314
Feb09		1259	190775
Mar09		1385	237514
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		939	165100
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1805	289768
Aug09		1363	227820
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1231	210184
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		651	109680
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		769	126195
Jul10		778	124071
Aug10		1035	167356
Sep10		750	118854
Oct10		888	139920
Nov10		1014	150167
Dec10		1454	205608
Jan11		974	145121
Feb11		642	98835
Mar11		1048	160787
Apr11		793	133035

For reference of price changes and how they impact sales. Keep in mind contracts take 2+ weeks to show up on the OCC.
BLT went from $112 to $120/pt on November 1, 2009.
BLT went from $120 to $130/pt in early December, 2010.

I will be interested in seeing wdrl's numbers for both AKV and SSR/THV. April seemed like a very good month for sales at least one of these properties.

Congratulations to DVD and the guides on selling over 30,000 contracts at BLT. Assuming sales continue near the current pace, there should be another declaration (likely the final one) in May.

 

[wdrl]

Direct sales at BLT slipped a bit in April 2011 compared to the previous month. There were 135,375 points sold for BLT, about 27,000 points less than the previous month. Even with this drop, BLT outsold SSR by more than a two-to-one margin and AKV by about a four-to-one margin.

Based on the new master contracts that were filed in April, it appears that DVD has shifted the default Use Year to December. If new buyers do not request a specific UY, DVD will assign them the December UY.

Sales at BLT may dip some more in the coming months as its base price is raised from $130 to $140 a point. However, I estimate that BLT should be sold out by the end of 2011. As of April 30, 2011, 84.86% of BLT has been sold to the general public. Since the Master Declaration prohibits DVD from selling more than 98% of BLT, there are less than 780,000 points left to sell at this resort. Dizfan points out that some UYs may become scarce as early as late this Summer.

DVD has declared 96.04% of BLT for the DVC inventory. It will be interesting to see when DVD makes the final declaration of Units at BLT.

 

[wdrl]

I recently went the OCC database and compiled data on the number of BLT deeds and points reacquired by DVD through foreclosures, ROFRs, and other buy backs. Through April 2011, DVD has reacquired less than 27,000 points at BLT, which is about one-half of one percent of the total points sold. There is an article on the DVCNews that has more detailed information: http://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/resorts/bay-lake-tower/news/1580-blt-points-taken-back-by-disney.

Starting next month, I plan on updating the sales data on BLT so that it includes the points reacquired by DVD.

By the way, during the recent webcast hosted by Samantha Brown, it was mentioned that BLT should sell out by late this summer.

 

[spiceycat]

so you do believe that BLT will sell out this year? Thanks

oh well can always get some more on the resale market.

 

[dizfan]

It appears the OCC has reposted three of the older BLT declarations.

Did DVD change the past declarations?

 

[dizfan]

As wdrl points out, our numbers don't match exactly. It's a very manual and time consuming task. However, our numbers provide a good idea of the overall sales.

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 5/31/2011.

30,640 total contracts
4,963,330 total points sold

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1212	199314
Feb09		1259	190775
Mar09		1385	237514
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		939	165100
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1805	289768
Aug09		1363	227820
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1231	210184
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		651	109680
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		769	126195
Jul10		778	124071
Aug10		1035	167356
Sep10		750	118854
Oct10		888	139920
Nov10		1014	150167
Dec10		1454	205608
Jan11		974	145121
Feb11		642	98835
Mar11		1048	160787
Apr11		793	133035
May11		622	105435

For reference of price changes and how they impact sales. Keep in mind contracts take 2+ weeks to show up on the OCC.
BLT went from $112 to $120/pt on November 1, 2009.
BLT went from $120 to $130/pt in early December, 2010.

May 2011 saw a slowdown in BLT sales. With SSR priced at $99/pt, there were a significant number of sales there. At this point, the May webcast deeds are still not showing up on the OCC, so we don't know what impact they will have on sales.

 

[dizfan]

Today on the Orange County Comptroller web site, units 90-92 were declared.

90A is a GV
90B is a GV
90C is a 2BR
91A consists of 2 2BR units
92A is a 2BR
92B is a 2BR

I believe this means all units (except the sales units 1) are now declared.

 

[DenLo]

Kind of exciting having our first home resort sell out. Thanks for the information dizfan

 

[dizfan]

Kind of exciting having our first home resort sell out.

I hope your back is feeling better today.

It feels kind of strange realizing that BLT will sell out shortly. The declaration doesn't even have 200,000 point, so it's less than 2 months of sales (assuming similar pace keeps up until sold out).

It seems like TSMIII, wdrl and I have all been tracking various information about BLT for a long time. Then, I look at Doc's information on sales for past resorts and realize it's not that long in terms of past resorts and how long they took to sell out.

It will be interesting to see if webcast sales are strong enough for the "sold out" posts to start before BLT's 3rd anniversary.

 

[dizfan]

As wdrl points out, our numbers don't match exactly. It's a very manual and time consuming task. However, our numbers provide a good idea of the overall sales.

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 6/30/2011.

31,570 total contracts
5,108,976 total points sold

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1212	199314
Feb09		1259	190775
Mar09		1385	237514
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		939	165100
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1805	289768
Aug09		1363	227820
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1231	210184
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		651	109680
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		769	126195
Jul10		778	124071
Aug10		1035	167356
Sep10		750	118854
Oct10		888	139920
Nov10		1014	150167
Dec10		1454	205608
Jan11		974	145121
Feb11		642	98835
Mar11		1048	160787
Apr11		793	133035
May11		622	105435
Jun11		930	145646

For reference of price changes and how they impact sales. Keep in mind contracts take 2+ weeks to show up on the OCC.
BLT went from $112 to $120/pt on November 1, 2009.
BLT went from $120 to $130/pt in early December, 2010.
BLT went from $130/pt to $140/pt in June, 2011.

The increase is BLT sales showing up on the OCC web site is very likely from the May/June web casts. These contracts are still working their way through and are likely to show up in the July contracts as well. However, BLT sales should stay slowing in July/August as the resort is nearing the "sold out" phase.

 

[wdrl]

On June 8, 2011, Disney Vacation Development made what should be the penultimate declaration of Units at BLT. DVD has now declared 98.97% of BLT -- all but three two-bedroom villas in two Units -- for the DVC inventory.

As dizfan pointed out, June 2011 was a good month for sales at BLT, probably due to the positive response to the web telecast hosted in May by Samantha Brown. Deeds recorded and filed with the Orange County Comptroller in June show that DVD sold 146,501 points and that it reacquired 3,395 points. The reacquired points are points that DVD took back through foreclosures, exercising its Right of First Refusal on resale transactions, and other buybacks. Through June 2011, DVD has sold 5,081,206 BLT points, which represents 88.62% of its total points. This figure reflects 36,727 points that have been reacquired by DVD to date.

Since DVD cannot sell more than 98% of BLT's points, there are about 538,000 points left for it to sell at BLT. Even if sales slow in future months as DVD lowers or removes incentives, BLT will probably sell out by the end of the year. In addition, it is possible that some Use Years may begin experiencing point shortages in the next few months.

For most of June, it appeared that DVD was using December as the default Use Year. Four additional Units were assigned to the December UY during the month, with a fifth Unit assigned to the August UY. However, toward the end of the month, more new master contracts were being sold with a February UY.

 

[wdrl]

Sales at BLT slowed during the month of July 2011. Deeds recorded by DVD with the Orange County Comptroller in the month show 88,855 points were sold in July. As dizfan's data shows, this is the third lowest monthly point total since BLT sales stated in October 2008.

As of July 31, 2011, 90.06% of BLT's total points have been sold. Since DVD cannot sell more than 98% of a DVC resort to the public, the actual percentage that has been sold is 91.9%. This percentage reflects 38,367 points that DVD has reacquired through foreclosure proceedings, exercising its Right of First Refusal on deeds sold on the resale market, and other buybacks. In July, 1,640 BLT points were reacquired by DVD.

In July, DVD assigned two more Units to the February Use Year. As the chart below shows, the February UY is the most common UY at BLT by a very large percentage.

Now that BLT's base price has increased to $150 a point, its likely that sales at BLT may slow even more. Nevertheless, its quite likely that points for some Use Years will become scarce in the next few months.

 

[amypetecar]

So, according the diagram at the beginning of the thread, does that mean that when I stay in a MKV studio in January, there is zero chance of getting higher than the 10th floor?

 

[Disneycouple99]

So, according the diagram at the beginning of the thread, does that mean that when I stay in a MKV studio in January, there is zero chance of getting higher than the 10th floor?

You can get a MK view on any of the floors. The first post has not been updated since Fall 2009.

 

[amypetecar]

You can get a MK view on any of the floors. The first post has not been updated since Fall 2009.

Well... i suppose that was a fairly important detail that I neglected to notice.

Great to know! thanks!!!!

 

[dizfan]

As wdrl points out, our numbers don't match exactly. It's a very manual and time consuming task. However, our numbers provide a good idea of the overall sales.

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 7/31/2011.

32,146 total contracts
5,197,100 total points sold

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1212	199314
Feb09		1259	190775
Mar09		1385	237514
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		939	165100
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1805	289768
Aug09		1363	227820
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1231	210184
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		651	109680
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		769	126195
Jul10		778	124071
Aug10		1035	167356
Sep10		750	118854
Oct10		888	139920
Nov10		1014	150167
Dec10		1454	205608
Jan11		974	145121
Feb11		642	98835
Mar11		1048	160787
Apr11		793	133035
May11		622	105435
Jun11		930	145646
Jul11		576	88124

For reference of price changes and how they impact sales. Keep in mind contracts take 2+ weeks to show up on the OCC.
BLT went from $112 to $120/pt on November 1, 2009.
BLT went from $120 to $130/pt in early December, 2010.
BLT went from $130/pt to $140/pt in June, 2011.
BLT just went from $140/pt to $150/pt in in August, 2011.
It appears the end of the May/June web cast sales were only a small portion of July sales. Many of the purchases reflect the $140/pt price. BLT sales are slowing as Disney uses the higher price for BLT to showcase the price savings when buying SSR and AKV.

 

[dizfan]

So, according the diagram at the beginning of the thread, does that mean that when I stay in a MKV studio in January, there is zero chance of getting higher than the 10th floor?

You may find work2play's thread very useful. It shows the location of the rooms in the various categories. There are also several pictures from the various rooms.

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2257082

 

[wdrl]

On June 30, 2011, DVD made the 17th and final declaration of Units at Bay Lake Tower. The final three Units declared were the three two-bedroom villas located on the 1st floor that were used by DVD as a sales center and model villas. The Condo Related document showing the Declaration was recorded and appeared today (8/18/2011) on the Orange County Comptroller's website.

This means that all 267 two-bedroom villas and 14 Grand Villas at BLT are available for DVC members to book using points.

In addition to declaring the final three villas, DVD also declared two commercial Units for the DVC membership. One commercial Unit includes the Cove Bar, which is the bar located next to the BLT pool on the ground level. The other commercial phase contains the Top of the World Lounge (TOWL) on BLT's 16th floor.

By declaring these commercial phases for the DVC inventory, DVD is formally submitting them as part of the BLT leasehold condominium that belongs to the DVC membership. The space being occupied by Cove Bar and the Top of the World Lounge are now considered part of the common areas belonging to all BLT owners.

It will be interesting to see if this means that BLT owners will always have access to the Top of the World Lounge.

 

[Greysword]

SWEET! We are all in now, and it feels pretty good!

Thanks WDRL & DIZFAN for tracking this. I appreciate your efforts!

Now as for the TotWL, by declaring it into the condo ownership group, does this mean it is probable WDW no longer has the option to close it and use it for exclusive parties only as previously feared)? Since our dues pay for it's upkeep, it shouldn't matter if it the restaurant makes a profit or not.

As for allowing BLT owners to visit anytime, how would they be able to tell we own at BLT? Our membership card does not have our resorts on it.

 

[wdrl]

SWEET! We are all in now, and it feels pretty good!

Thanks WDRL & DIZFAN for tracking this. I appreciate your efforts!

Now as for the TotWL, by declaring it into the condo ownership group, does this mean it is probable WDW no longer has the option to close it and use it for exclusive parties only as previously feared)? Since our dues pay for it's upkeep, it shouldn't matter if it the restaurant makes a profit or not.

As for allowing BLT owners to visit anytime, how would they be able to tell we own at BLT? Our membership card does not have our resorts on it.

Thanks, Greysword. Its been fun tracking BLT's progress. I hope the information is of use to the DVC members.

As for the TOWL: I'm not sure of the significance of DVD declaring the TOWL's space for the leasehold condominium. Keep in mind DVD just declared the space -- not the food and beverage operation. At the least, I think it means that Disney has to pay rent to the BLT condominium if it operates a bar or food service in that space. I'm almost absolutely positive we, as BLT owners, will not share in any profits realized by the bar or food service. But I see that as a good thing because it also means we are protected against losses as well.

Even though the BLT owners may 'own' the space occupied by the TOWL, there is no guarantee that Disney will continue to operate the TOWL. Disney could close it down tomorrow and convert it into a quiet reading lounge.

As a BLT owner, I've enjoyed going up to the TOWL to check out the views, get a drink and a BLT (yes, they actually have a BLT flatbread on the menu), and watch the fireworks. But if I was running Disney, I'd think about making that space available to the Disney brides for ceremonies and wedding receptions. I think Disney charges $3,600 for the Wedding Pavilion at the Grand Floridian. Surely it could charge even more for catering an affair on the 16th floor of the BLT.