What's happening with FP+ in November and December?

[g-dad66]

I will also suggest that as WDW gathers data on usage, they are experiencing a greater number of "no-shows" than they anticipated.

Excellent point.

And it is supported by the fact that when they did the FP+-only experiment on Toy Story Mania, many half-empty cars were witnessed by some who rode during those 5 days.

 

[cobright]

But really you're saying the same thing as Mom:

The FP+ line will slow down because there will be more people in it. Instead of waiting 5 minutes, guests may have to wait for 15 minutes.

Yes and no. Mostly no.

Momrtk suggested a comparison between the two lines of a single ride. Essentially saying "As more riders of a ride get shifted to FP, the FP line for that ride's wait time will get longer and the SB line will continue to be long.

In reality, looking at a single ride, as more guests use FP and as FP is used for a greater portion of each guest's rides, fewer guests will be in SB lines over all and FP line waits will remain about the same or lengthen or shorten slightly.

There is actual research to suggest that as more riders use fastpass, wait times overall will lessen. The main reason for this is that scheduling your days ride usage provides information to the park that lets them make decisions on how to run those rides more efficiently. Things like staffing needs, when to schedule needed maintenance or inspections, even something as simple as when to schedule employee breaks; it all adds up to wait time if they get it wrong. (the literature review in this paper covers a great deal of ground on this: http://waset.org/publications/13060/fast-lines-at-theme-parks)

The goal of FP, simply put, is traffic shaping. Same thing with SOTMK. You think it is random which region your next villain is in? It's not. It sends you to where the lines are lower because they know you will be doing other things between going to the SoTMK stations.

So the goal, it might be better said, is not be to lower the wait time of every ride but to reduce the number of perceived 'long' wait times.