What's happening with FP+ in November and December?

[cakebaker]

I was there last week, both times I did FP+ for 7DMT (different days) I was on within 5 minutes. Maybe they decided it could take more capacity.

If FP+ lines are that short, makes sense they could easily double the capacity for the fp+ line and it's still acceptable to most people. I'd rather wait 10 minutes in a fp+ line than an hour or 2 in standby. Who knows what it does to standby- the more people with fp+'s, the fewer in standby so maybe it'll be a wash.

Makes sense to me.

 

[Suvadoo]

This is one of those cases where 'common sense' lies to us.

Common sense tells us that an attraction can handle a certain number of people each hour and that number determines the average wait time for those wishing to ride it. So the intuitive conclusion is that a FP system decreases the wait time for a few at the expense of the rest. I swear to god I had someone tells me this, adding "that's just math".

The common sense error, then, is that moving everyone to FP would have the same effect more or less as removing FP. Or that it would dilute the effect. In reality, having a system where every attraction attended was scheduled up to two months in advance would shorten everyone's wait across the board.

Nothing in que management is a zero sum uni-variant problem. Before anything else, the purpose of FP is traffic shaping. This means spreading guests out in such a way that you have fewer and less severe spikes in demand for a particular ride. The more people who are scheduling their day with FP the more rides will be running at their most efficient wait times.

Think about it next time you walk right onto a ride that you would have happily waited 15 minutes for. FP's job is to get more people into that line and out of the 160 minute wait for peter pan.

But really you're saying the same thing as Mom:

The FP+ line will slow down because there will be more people in it. Instead of waiting 5 minutes, guests may have to wait for 15 minutes.

So, you addressed the FP line, but didn't mention the SB line. If the FP line has more guests in it that are steadily entering the queue, doesn't the SB line get a lot longer?

 

[clsteve]

There's a whole different scenario and complex data set they could be experimenting with that hasn't been touched on --- us, the Disney guest.

The interesting thing about this release of FP's is that it was inside of the 60 and 30 day mark. Meaning, any guest type could grab them. And, they seemed to be prime reservation slots.

What a perfect opportunity for them to see:

What percentage of each guest type grabbed them (off-site/on-site)

Were new on-site reservations booked because of it

What percentage of the of already booked guests of each type actually changed their current FP+ reservations, touring plans or even Park days because of it (giving them a view of what percentage of both guest-type is continually checking the sys for better FP's)

​

A key part of this whole system for Disney is managing and manipulating guest behavior.

A big part of what we're seeing may be Disney measuring what happens if they change when and how they release ride reservation capacity....

 

[mom2rtk]

There's a whole different scenario and complex data set they could be experimenting with that hasn't been touched on --- us, the Disney guest.

The interesting thing about this release of FP's is that it was inside of the 60 and 30 day mark. Meaning, any guest type could grab them. And, they seemed to be prime reservation slots.

What a perfect opportunity for them to see:

What percentage of each guest type grabbed them (off-site/on-site)

Were new on-site reservations booked because of it

What percentage of the of already booked guests of each type actually changed their current FP+ reservations, touring plans or even Park days because of it (giving them a view of what percentage of both guest-type is continually checking the sys for better FP's)

​

A key part of this whole system for Disney is managing and manipulating guest behavior.

A big part of what we're seeing may be Disney measuring what happens if they change when and how they release ride reservation capacity....

Or maybe someone left out a line of code at 60 days?

I think what you outline is a distinct possibility. But if they read much into their findings, they are mistaken. Because if this is something they would intend to do regularly people would know about it and anticipate it. I think that would likely give a different outcome.

 

[mom2rtk]

But really you're saying the same thing as Mom:

The FP+ line will slow down because there will be more people in it. Instead of waiting 5 minutes, guests may have to wait for 15 minutes.

So, you addressed the FP line, but didn't mention the SB line. If the FP line has more guests in it that are steadily entering the queue, doesn't the SB line get a lot longer?

And I'm sure there are lots of reports of the FP line being 5 minutes now, just as there are reports of it being 15 minutes. It really depends on how people clump up during the return times. Doubling or tripling 5 minutes might be ok. But how about doubling or tripling 15 minutes?

 

[wisblue]

Is it possible that Disney is playing around with the number of FPs they are issuing to see how the waits in both the standby and FP+ lines are affected to see if they can allow guests to get more than 3 FPs in advance at MK? By all accounts, 7DMT is the only ride at the MK that isn't available same day, and that a lot of things have return times that are no more than a half hour out through much of the day.

One of the questions they might have, and that they are trying to determine through surveys, is how long people are willing to wait to ride with a FP. For example, would guests prefer having 4 or 5 FPs in advance and wait 10-15 minutes for each, or have just 3 FPs with shorter waits? Having more FPs in advance would reduce the demand at in park kiosks.

 

[KatieCharlotte]

To me, this seems like the most likely explanation. So they'll slow the Fp+ line and the SB will become even slower than it already is. Great. If I were going to the parks, I'd ride my 3 FP+ rides and then leave since the odds of getting on another ride without a long wait will be nil. I hope this isn't the plan, but if this is the new norm for WDW I will not be visiting again.

In a way, I feel for Disney. Now that they've implemented FP+, there's no easy solution for high demand attractions. Whether you dump all FP+ into the system at once, hold back FP+ for 30-day, or hold back for last-minute, there will be disappointed people who can't get the FP+ they feel you've promised them. That's what happens when you heavily market both FP+ and 7DMT. Add a ton more FP+ to the system and you meet those people's expectations but essentially destroy standby.

IMO, it's clear from the sudden three-week window of availability that Disney is at least trying out a higher percentage of FP+ versus standby slots for the most in demand ride. It is interesting to compare this approach with Universal's, where the most in-demand (i.e. Harry Potter) attractions don't use the express pass and are strictly first-come-first-serve, albeit with US early entry for onsite guests.

 

[wisblue]

In a way, I feel for Disney. Now that they've implemented FP+, there's no easy solution for high demand attractions. Whether you dump all FP+ into the system at once, hold back FP+ for 30-day, or hold back for last-minute, there will be disappointed people who can't get the FP+ they feel you've promised them. That's what happens when you heavily market both FP+ and 7DMT. Add a ton more FP+ to the system and you meet those people's expectations but essentially destroy standby.

IMO, it's clear from the sudden three-week window of availability that Disney is at least trying out a higher percentage of FP+ versus standby slots for the most in demand ride. It is interesting to compare this approach with Universal's, where the most in-demand (i.e. Harry Potter) attractions don't use the express pass and are strictly first-come-first-serve, albeit with US early entry for onsite guests.

That "albeit" in your last sentence is a big one.

Because Universal allows onsite guests early entry every day, any offsite guest who wants to ride the Gringotts ride with the "shortest" wait possible has to arrive at the park the better part of an hour before opening, then be herded into the Diagon Alley area while hundreds of rude guests push their way around the barricades and trample the landscaping to move up in line ahead of people who arrived a half hour before them. Then when you get to the ride the posted wait time is 2.5 hours, although in our case the actual wait was "only" about 90 minutes, meaning that our total wait was almost 2.5 hours, counting the time we waited to get into the area.

Is that what we want Disney to do? I could just imagine the howling from offsite guests if Disney offered AM EMH at every park every day.

It's all a balancing act. If a park is going to offer any kind of front of the line pass at all, it has to try to strike a balance between satisfying the guests who have that preferred access while not completely turning away those who don't.

By observation, it seems that many of the posters on this board are not willing to wait as much as 30 minutes for much of anything. If that's your starting point, the standby line at most popular attractions has already been essentially destroyed. So, then, what does it really matter if the standby line is 45 minutes or 90 minutes or closed off completely once it reaches a certain length?

 

[clsteve]

Or maybe someone left out a line of code at 60 days?

I think what you outline is a distinct possibility. But if they read much into their findings, they are mistaken. Because if this is something they would intend to do regularly people would know about it and anticipate it. I think that would likely give a different outcome.

Hah! a sys update issue was the first thing that popped in my mind when this happened! But they would have fixed that by now and sent one of those "Your 7DMT FP is now not available - you can pick one of these..." emails

The reason I think guest behavior is one of the main things they're testing with this is the timing - allowing every guest type to reserve since it's inside of the windows.

It's the only thing they can't simulate or use previous data or surveys for.

It's a huge thing to test - what guest type changes their plans, which type now reserves basically last minute, etc., in case they want to change how, when and to whom they allow reservations.

And, what difference it might make depending on the season/ crowd level.

Look at when they are doing it 2 slow weeks and a traditionally very busy week (Jersey week).

It could be a precursor to adding more definition to the timing of ressie allocation and it's downstream effects. Even to the point of allowing Deluxe guests a 90 day window, for example, or a ticket type window definition for off-site, or allocating certain percentages based on time and their goals.

The interesting thing is, they can test the above with this and at the same time test a different fp-to-standby ratio. Say, going from 70%-30% to 90%-10%

It's the fact that they did this inside of the 30 and 60 day windows that leads me to believe we plus what we do when is what the main test here is.....

 

[Suvadoo]

Hah! a sys update issue was the first thing that popped in my mind when this happened! But they would have fixed that by now and sent one of those "Your 7DMT FP is now not available - you can pick one of these..." emails

The reason I think guest behavior is one of the main things they're testing with this is the timing - allowing every guest type to reserve since it's inside of the windows.

It's the only thing they can't simulate or use previous data or surveys for.

It's a huge thing to test - what guest type changes their plans, which type now reserves basically last minute, etc., in case they want to change how, when and to whom they allow reservations.

And, what difference it might make depending on the season/ crowd level.

Look at when they are doing it 2 slow weeks and a traditionally very busy week (Jersey week).

It could be a precursor to adding more definition to the timing of ressie allocation and it's downstream effects. Even to the point of allowing Deluxe guests a 90 day window, for example, or a ticket type window definition for off-site, or allocating certain percentages based on time and their goals.

The interesting thing is, they can test the above with this and at the same time test a different fp-to-standby ratio. Say, going from 70%-30% to 90%-10%

It's the fact that they did this inside of the 30 and 60 day windows that leads me to believe we plus what we do when is what the main test here is.....

I'm curious to see what guests will say about the parks over the next 2 months. It will be interesting.

 

[KatieCharlotte]

By observation, it seems that many of the posters on this board are not willing to wait as much as 30 minutes for much of anything. If that's your starting point, the standby line at most popular attractions has already been essentially destroyed. So, then, what does it really matter if the standby line is 45 minutes or 90 minutes or closed off completely once it reaches a certain length?

It matters to everyone who is willing to wait that long. If 7DMT had opened during our spring trip, I would have waited an hour in line because of the new-ride excitement, even though I wasn't willing to wait more than thirty minutes for anything else. Someone who is never coming back to Disney or only in the distant future will be willing to wait longer. I don't want them to lose that chance or turn a manageable hour standby wait to a two hour wait. OTOH, more FP+ mean more people get reduced waits. I understand that there are no easy answers. It's going to be interesting seeing what happens next week.

 

[SCDisneyfanatic]

Perhaps we are looking at this all wrong. One post mentioned the possibility that Disney wants to track 60-day guests that change their touring plan because of the new FP+ openings. So, perhaps the entire schema is to determine how to better do park distribution between all the parks, not necessarily within one park. When you look at the crowd levels for each park, I'm thinking, as Management, the ultimate answer would be, How do we get all the parks to have rather equal crowd levels each day? Manipulating crowds by virtue of the FP+ system is a great start to meeting that goal!

 

[wisblue]

It matters to everyone who is willing to wait that long. If 7DMT had opened during our spring trip, I would have waited an hour in line because of the new-ride excitement, even though I wasn't willing to wait more than thirty minutes for anything else. Someone who is never coming back to Disney or only in the distant future will be willing to wait longer. I don't want them to lose that chance or turn a manageable hour standby wait to a two hour wait. OTOH, more FP+ mean more people get reduced waits. I understand that there are no easy answers. It's going to be interesting seeing what happens next week.

Which is why I said it doesn't matter if your starting point is that you aren't willing to wait in line more than 30 minutes for anything.

I am on record as being against the elimination of standby lines at any ride. But, it would really only have a noticeable impact on us (and probably a lot of frequent visitors) if they eliminated the standby line all day because once the line gets over 30 minutes for something we have done many times before, we probably aren't waiting for it either.

If, as reported by both Touring Plans and easywdw, average posted standby waits are up for some rides, but down an equal amount for others, those first time and infrequent visitors are the ones who are most likely to benefit because they are more willing to wait 30-45 minutes for something they haven't done many times before.

 

[Dallas_Lady]

Very interesting discussion! The Great and Powerful "They" are doing something, they are testing something, we just have no idea.

It's like we're rats in a maze and the experimenters just threw in a bunch of cheese. They're frantically writing on their clipboards as they watch us scramble for the cheese and wonder if and when more will come.

 

[mom2rtk]

It's like we're rats in a maze and the experimenters just threw in a bunch of cheese.

Truer words have not been spoken!

 

[clsteve]

Very interesting discussion! The Great and Powerful "They" are doing something, they are testing something, we just have no idea.

It's like we're rats in a maze and the experimenters just threw in a bunch of cheese. They're frantically writing on their clipboards as they watch us scramble for the cheese and wonder if and when more will come.

Not cheese.....

Churros, please

 

[mom2rtk]

Not cheese.....

Churros, please

He should go to DL for those. They're fresher and easier to find.

 

[hopemax]

Didn't this happen, sometime this summer too. Where suddenly a bunch of slots opened up?

I think it's a combo of things. Playing with the standby/FP+ ratios, playing with the availability date, but I will also suggest that as WDW gathers data on usage, they are experiencing a greater number of "no-shows" than they anticipated. Then they can release additional FP's, in order to get the ridership split the way they want.

So for example, a ride can carry 2000 people/hour. WDW would like 1500 of those riders to come from FP+, 500 from Standby. They are unsure on what the "no show" usage is. They distribute 1650 FP to fill 1500 seats, but it turns out that only 1400 people actually return. After a long enough period to determine that this is the normal return rate, they could tweak the software to distribute 1750, expecting that will now fill the 1500 seats. So then 100 more FP per hour are available.

Underestimating the "no shows" would also explain why so many people report that the Standby wait time on things like 7DMT were shorter than the posted wait time. Fewer FP riders, allowed them to load more from standby, so that line moved faster.

If this is happening, I would expect standby lines to experience longer waits, not the FP+ queue.

 

[cakebaker]

Didn't this happen, sometime this summer too. Where suddenly a bunch of slots opened up?

.

Thank goodness, someone else remembers it happening before too. Yes, it's happened a couple of times. No I don't have the specific dates as to when it happened or how many days opened up. But, this is not the first time slots have suddenly opened that were once unavailable.

 

[PEC]

Didn't this happen, sometime this summer too. Where suddenly a bunch of slots opened up?

I think it's a combo of things. Playing with the standby/FP+ ratios, playing with the availability date, but I will also suggest that as WDW gathers data on usage, they are experiencing a greater number of "no-shows" than they anticipated. Then they can release additional FP's, in order to get the ridership split the way they want.

So for example, a ride can carry 2000 people/hour. WDW would like 1500 of those riders to come from FP+, 500 from Standby. They are unsure on what the "no show" usage is. They distribute 1650 FP to fill 1500 seats, but it turns out that only 1400 people actually return. After a long enough period to determine that this is the normal return rate, they could tweak the software to distribute 1750, expecting that will now fill the 1500 seats. So then 100 more FP per hour are available.

Underestimating the "no shows" would also explain why so many people report that the Standby wait time on things like 7DMT were shorter than the posted wait time. Fewer FP riders, allowed them to load more from standby, so that line moved faster.

If this is happening, I would expect standby lines to experience longer waits, not the FP+ queue.

I posted elsewhere where it is common for the standby wait to be about 5-10 minutes shorter than displayed for 7DMT. IF it goes up to what is actually posted I don't think you would really have many complaints. If I got in a line that said wait time 90 minutes when over what can I say "the wait time was not shorter than what the displayed wait time said". Not logical.

Definitily could see this being used for data mining somehow? Of course every major corporation in America is Data mining. Retailers, etc. If you don't want to be data mined you probably need to start building your doomsday bunker and staying in it. Heck Governments use civil engineers to Data Mine traffic flows etc.