- Joined
- Apr 18, 2018
- Messages
- 1,375
Obviously, we are in an uncertain time, both with the Economy and with Disney itself. What will a Disney World trip look like, once Disney reopens in July? Will people still want to go? Will people still want to Purchase OR Rent DVC?
I actually think the prognosis looks pretty good, because I think the demand for DVC rooms will be higher than the supply, at least through the rest of the year. It is possible that they might increase back to 'normal' once they have run the parks with limited capacity, IF they decide that the masks are going to do a really good job of stopping the spread of COVID. Otherwise, how things look now, in public and in Disney World, is probably about how things will look into next year.
If someone wants to Rent a DVC room, they really MUST hop on it right now. Almost all of the rest of the year is already booked up and there is very little left (as is typical for the Fall), and I don't see large blocks of rooms opening up between now and January. People just aren't going to be dumping most of their reservations, once the park is open.
However, for purchasing, I would wait to buy until sometime in the period of October to January. If you keep an eye on things, then you should be able to see the trends by then. UNLESS you find a killer deal now. If so, go for it. Even if prices drop more, eventually, they will be right back up.
I DO see the price going down some. I'm guessing 10% to maybe 15%, but what do I know. I don't see it dropping 20% or more unless the bottom really falls out of the economy.
Waiting until Fall to purchase will also give you an idea of how the demand looks for Disney World in general.
Over at least the next 6 months or so, Disney World is probably going to limit park admissions by at least 50%. So, I do expect DVC rooms to be in reasonable demand . Why? Because it is my opinion, that Disney Hotel Guests and DVC room guests will have first crack at 'reserving park entry.' Then I think they will go to Season ticket holders in the 2nd rank, and 'Good Neighbor Hotels' in the 3rd rank. If you are not in one of those groups, I DON'T THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT YOU ARE GOING TO GET INTO DISNEY WORLD.
Here is my thinking:
* Estimated 'Capacity' at Disney World, across all the parks, is 320,000 or so (if my figures aren't right, let me know). So, Half Capacity (if they even allow that much) is about 160,000 rooms.
* They have 30,000 hotel rooms on property and around 4,200 DVC rooms (across all types) This should give an average capacity of around 120,000 people in hotels, and let's say 20,000 or 25,000 people in DVC rooms (I think I'm being generous here, but if anyone thinks they have better numbers, I would be glad to correct my estimates).
* If you round up to an even 150,000 people, that means that between Disney Hotels and DVC rooms, there are enough people to fill the parks by almost 1/2. These people with 'on property rooms' should get first choice on reserving Park Entry. That doesn't leave a lot of room for 'other people.'
* There are hundreds of thousands of Annual Pass Holders, though I have no idea how many of them visit DW on any particular day. But these people should get 2nd Choice on reserving Park Entry.
* There are also about 50 'Good Neighbor Hotels.' I'm just spitballing here, but lets assume they average about 500 rooms each. That gives another 25,000 rooms, so lets say another 100,000 people. These people should probably get 2nd choice (along with Annual Passholders) or 3rd choice for reserving Park Entry.
Now you are up to a significantly greater capacity than Disney World will have room for, at half capacity. So, I think the most likely way to guarantee that you will be able to get into Disney World is to either stay in a Disney Hotel or a DVC room. So, DVC rooms will be in high demand (they are anyway,) and I think they will stay in high demand.
If you are interested in buying, then once you are convinced the price has stabilized, in the next few months, it will probably be the time to pull the trigger.
Do you think I am missing something here?
I actually think the prognosis looks pretty good, because I think the demand for DVC rooms will be higher than the supply, at least through the rest of the year. It is possible that they might increase back to 'normal' once they have run the parks with limited capacity, IF they decide that the masks are going to do a really good job of stopping the spread of COVID. Otherwise, how things look now, in public and in Disney World, is probably about how things will look into next year.
If someone wants to Rent a DVC room, they really MUST hop on it right now. Almost all of the rest of the year is already booked up and there is very little left (as is typical for the Fall), and I don't see large blocks of rooms opening up between now and January. People just aren't going to be dumping most of their reservations, once the park is open.
However, for purchasing, I would wait to buy until sometime in the period of October to January. If you keep an eye on things, then you should be able to see the trends by then. UNLESS you find a killer deal now. If so, go for it. Even if prices drop more, eventually, they will be right back up.
I DO see the price going down some. I'm guessing 10% to maybe 15%, but what do I know. I don't see it dropping 20% or more unless the bottom really falls out of the economy.
Waiting until Fall to purchase will also give you an idea of how the demand looks for Disney World in general.
Over at least the next 6 months or so, Disney World is probably going to limit park admissions by at least 50%. So, I do expect DVC rooms to be in reasonable demand . Why? Because it is my opinion, that Disney Hotel Guests and DVC room guests will have first crack at 'reserving park entry.' Then I think they will go to Season ticket holders in the 2nd rank, and 'Good Neighbor Hotels' in the 3rd rank. If you are not in one of those groups, I DON'T THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT YOU ARE GOING TO GET INTO DISNEY WORLD.
Here is my thinking:
* Estimated 'Capacity' at Disney World, across all the parks, is 320,000 or so (if my figures aren't right, let me know). So, Half Capacity (if they even allow that much) is about 160,000 rooms.
* They have 30,000 hotel rooms on property and around 4,200 DVC rooms (across all types) This should give an average capacity of around 120,000 people in hotels, and let's say 20,000 or 25,000 people in DVC rooms (I think I'm being generous here, but if anyone thinks they have better numbers, I would be glad to correct my estimates).
* If you round up to an even 150,000 people, that means that between Disney Hotels and DVC rooms, there are enough people to fill the parks by almost 1/2. These people with 'on property rooms' should get first choice on reserving Park Entry. That doesn't leave a lot of room for 'other people.'
* There are hundreds of thousands of Annual Pass Holders, though I have no idea how many of them visit DW on any particular day. But these people should get 2nd Choice on reserving Park Entry.
* There are also about 50 'Good Neighbor Hotels.' I'm just spitballing here, but lets assume they average about 500 rooms each. That gives another 25,000 rooms, so lets say another 100,000 people. These people should probably get 2nd choice (along with Annual Passholders) or 3rd choice for reserving Park Entry.
Now you are up to a significantly greater capacity than Disney World will have room for, at half capacity. So, I think the most likely way to guarantee that you will be able to get into Disney World is to either stay in a Disney Hotel or a DVC room. So, DVC rooms will be in high demand (they are anyway,) and I think they will stay in high demand.
If you are interested in buying, then once you are convinced the price has stabilized, in the next few months, it will probably be the time to pull the trigger.
Do you think I am missing something here?
