This is a very variable answer for me.
When we first joined
We had been staying at mostly Moderates, but sometimes Values and sometimes Deluxes. We didn't know what resale was. Our decision was between buying into Poly then, waiting for CCV, or not buying into
DVC at all.
In terms of buying into DVC at all, the following had to work:
1. Total cost of ownership
2. Low dues
For "Low dues" it was more like "low annual outlay". Our threshold was the dues for a Studio being less than an equivalent date stay at Pop Century per year.
As for total costs, while the analysis was not binary, the outcome was either "Yes DVC" or "No DVC". Fortunately, analysis said "Yes".
And with that "Yes", our decision moved onto a 'phase 2', buy Poly then or wait for CCV, based on:
1. Buy where you want to stay
2. Low up front costs
3. Number of years remaining
For 'Low up front costs', our Guide explained that direct prices basically only ever go up and that buying then would likely be a lower cost than waiting for CCV. This was accurate, though a clear sales tactic. Turns out we bought at the nadir of Poly direct pricing.
Poly was a preference over Wilderness Lodge, too. Overall, Poly came out well ahead of waiting for WL2 (CCV) despite the shorter contract.
We didn't consider the
points charts or the odds that CCV would be significantly lower and we could have more purchasing power (or lower upfront costs via lower points chart).
The following was not considered, at all:
X. Predicted resale value/exit strategy
In general, it was a pretty naive process, but the results were good.
Our expansion phase
A few stays into ownership, some vacationing circumtances changed and we realized we really wanted more points. In a few years, we went from 220 to ~1k points. We started going to WDW multiple times per year, intended to go to DL multiple times per year, and we prioritized trying all the WDW DVC resorts.
Because of our changing travel patterns, our purchases were motivated differently...some were expansionary-minded SAP+, but our VGC purchases were very much for VGC and set our longterm template. We had some success booking VGC with our Poly points, but wanted to be more in control of not only where we stayed, but when we stayed at VGC.
For WDW points, we weighed the "+" in SAP+ pretty highly while we were trying all the resorts, where we always wanted a fallback onto a Poly/RIV stay if things didn't work out at 7m, even if it meant a shorter stay due to higher points charts.
During this phase, we also became more attuned to the specific costs of various resorts, but peak value resorts just didn't overcome the desire for a 'safety stay' in case things didn't work out at 7m (sorry SSR, CCV, and BLT).
Overall, this was our breakdown this phase:
1. Buy where you want to stay
2. Total cost of ownership
3. Low dues
4. Years remaining
5. Low up front costs
6. Predicted resale value/exit strategy
Our final form
We've stayed in every WDW resort now (and most multiple times). We know what we like. We have over 1,500 points and will probably end up around 2,000 in the next year or two. We spend over a month each year in DVC rooms, some years well over. We also can only travel so much because we now travel at times of year where booking at 7m is difficult.
In short, we now lean
very strongly toward "Buy where you want to stay" with an addtional element of "
when we want to stay". At this point, most of our points are assigned to very specific, routine stays (e.g., we just bought BCV for NYE). To
@tom1944's point, the 'where/when we want to stay' is
almost the entire decision point currently.
SAP only really exist to us for afterthought 1-night or 2-night stays here or there (e.g., a post-cruise stay to roundout a weekend), and for Cabungalows. We still really want stays at our favorite resorts in our backpocket going into the 7m booking window.
The 'DVC Math' still needs to make sense, which to me means:
- It cannot be financially disadvantageous to own at a specific resort vs. buying SAP+ (cough, CFW and VB)
- But I'm not splitting hairs between dues at $8.20/pt and $8.50/pt, or even $7.50/pt vs. $8.50/pt
- Some sort of litmus test comparison to cash stays, too
- (a SSR 1BR on AP discount was a sobering $15.06/pt for a recent cash stay of ours)
We've talked exit strategy, but realistically staying where and when we want will outweigh it. If there's no good replacement for Poly stays in the 2040s, we'll stick with our Poly points instead of selling them off.
) and dues matter but above all else we own where we want to stay but I'm interested to hear what you guys have to say 
