Interesting thread. They put one toe on the line changing park hours 2 weeks prior to our trip and we've been back and forth about cancelling, but ultimately have not. That was very close. For us definitively it is crowd levels. While I understand there is no such thing as a 1 or 2 day anymore, if we can not find a time to go where the crowd calendars are below 5, we simply will not go anymore. Prior to our son being born my wife and I had no problem being in the MK on the 4th of July and other 9 & 10 days. With a kid it is a recipe for disaster. On our last trip we slammed into a day that felt like a 10 despite the sites calling for it to be a 4. So if the crowds reached a point of always being over 5, or more people began waking up early and eliminating the benefit of RD, we'd take our vacation money elsewhere.
DD and her husband are just back from 15 days at WDW (we always go for at least 2 weeks as we have to cross an ocean to get there - getting there is so difficult and costly, a longer stay makes it more worthwhile)
she went during a time when we've gone in the past when the crowds were low to medium level. Not this year. Magic Kingdom was insanely crowded every time they were in the park (they visited MK 5 times during the 15 days). She kept messaging us pictures that you would have thought were from july 4th it was so massively packed.
I'm not entirely sure where the line is for us, but I know it is very, very close. Here are the things that are pushing us away from WDW:
- FP+. It is perhaps the worst thing to happen to the parks ... ever.
- Annual ticket increases. In just 5 years a 7-day base pass went from $234 in 2009 to $324 in 2014. That's an increase of 38%.
- Food price increases. We were priced out of most TS meals years ago, especially the buffets. I simply cannot bring myself to pay $46-$50 per person to eat at Chef Mickey's when it was $32 5 years ago. That's an increase of 44% - 56%. CS meals are really no better. Back in 2009 a meal at Pecos Bills (pork sandwich, carrot cake, large soda) was $14.46 with tax. Today the same meal is now $18.60, a 29% increase.
- The requirement to plan our vacation to the minute 60-90 days in advance and needing to be online at midnight when your FP+ window opens up to get the FP+s you really want.
- The necessity to "walk" a DVC reservation in popular resort categories or risk not getting the room you want.
- The homogenization and reduction in quality of both food and merchandise.
- The little touches of pixie dust magic now gone: waking up Tink, paint brushes at Tom Sawyer island and divers with messages at Coral Reef to name a few.
- We went on a non-Disney cruise last Spring Break for a fraction of what a Disney vacation would have cost.
Add the insane crowds of Christmas, Spring Break and Summer when our DD doesn't have school to that list and yes, we are very, very close that line in the sand. Our next trip is in a few weeks and we have another short one planned for Spring Break. Depending on how those go we may be back for Christmas 2015 or we may be somewhere else on the proceeds from renting out our DVC points.
they don't have the paint brush anymore? i didn't know that. that makes me sad.
your list is pretty much on the mark for me, other than the DVC part since we're not DVC owners.
DD booked her resort only at 90 days - which is when i started to look for ADRs for her.
Everything at MK and DHS was already booked. Everything. Even the 'bad' restaurants (like Tony's).
Not one ADR was available at MK or DHS.
At 90 days out!!!
She said, "oh we'll just walk up like we always have in the past".
But i was nervous after reading on the boards that walk ups aren't possible anymore.
So i spent 3 months pretty much constantly checking the disney website and managed to get them all the ADRs.
the first thing DD said when she got back was "thanks" for all those ADRs as there were zero walkups.
She said that at every restaurant there were CMs standing outside saying "reservations only" and turning everyone without ADRs away.
All i can think about is what happens to the newbies who don't know about ADRs? The person who just casually walks into the park?
anyway, you said it all much more succinctly:
the crowds, the prices (ticket, resort, food), the elimination of the pixie dust type attractions is already doing it for me.
I think i'm very very close to that line in the sand.
as for why i'm on the disboards? because i love disney.
I wish we could go as often as we did in the past, but it's just too expensive for us now.
so i live vicariously and help others plan (like DD's trip).
. I remember those early months so well.It was love at first sight ... just my husband and Mickey and me 
. We even bought into DVC after our first visit so we could spend the rest of our lives (or until 2042, which ever came first) with Mickey and all his pals right there at WDW 
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and 
