OneMoreTry said:
The catch is this:
If you took the buy-in money, invested in a balanced mutual fund, and the US economy stays the same as it has for the past 200 years, AND THEN went ahead and stayed in an economy or moderate resort every year --- you would come out ahead in the long run (20-40 years) financially. .
I don't think that's necessarily the case.
First, in order to do that, you need to guarantee a ROI, AFTER taxes, of at least (roughly) 3.5% a year, presuming that the increase in maintenance fees continues to rise this way.
Second, don't forget about the "perks" we get. Now, they're not guaranteed, but that takes a lot into consideration. For example, we have 100 points at OKW, and pay about $380 in maint. fees. But, with the DVC discount, my DF and I saved $200 on our APs! Additionally, another important fact to remember, even if they take away all our "perks", we never pay SALES TAX on our rooms.
Third, you're presuming that the cash rates will rise at the same level as inflation. Businesses don't base their rates on "inflation" - it's supply and demand. If the demand for Disney rentals increases at a rate higher than inflation (or if operating costs increase higher than inflation - very likely just looking at wages and insurance), then you can presume that the cash rates will go up considerably higher than inflation.
DVC is not right for everyone. And, to be sure, even though we, personally, are saving a LOT of money by owning in DVC, we actually spend more money than we otherwise would on vacations. We do go more often - which means more airfare, dining, etc.
With our 100 points, we get 12 nights a year in a studio. Staying at a VALUE would cost us, nearly $100 a night (with taxes and fees). So, let's say for the next 9 years cash rates never increase. I will have paid $10,800 in occupancy costs (at a VALUE, mind you). Compare that to my 100 points purchase for $73/point plus estimated maintenance fees for 9 years ($4/point) = $10,900. So, after 9 years, my DVC has paid for itself (including maint fees) AND it still holds resale value. After that, my occupancy costs are only maintenance fees. Even if it averages $8 a point, that's 12 nights for less than $70 a night. Let's presume that value stays the same price (yeah, right). I will have to earn a 30% ROI (after taxes) to break even ($100 vs $70/night = $30 difference/$100 = 30%). AND, my DVC contract STILL has (some) value! (FYI, at a 5% annual increase, after 9 years, the value rate will be about $150-160 (with tax/fees))
On top of all that, I'm NOT staying in a value. No offense, but even the Moderates don't come close DVC rooms and ammenities.
I LOVE my DVC, both from a "touchy-feely" vacation standpoint, AND from a financial standpoint.