What is BLT worth per point?

[PapaCharles]

@JHank44 I love spreadsheets and data points. Thanks for sharing! It is interesting to see the ppp from your spreadsheet because the brokers are claiming it is currently closer to $120pp currently. I think it is also worth noting that they were taking back about 20% in November 2016 (when people say the prices are lower) and almost 45% in December 2016. That's a huge jump in a month. Then again, looking at last year vs. this year with ROFR rate, there seems to be no discernible pattern as to when they ramp up buybacks. January 2016 was almost no buybacks where January 2017 was over 40%. What the heck goes on in those committee meetings?!?

Curious as what @JHank44 has on your questions.

I would guess there must be a correlation to the amount of direct points they are selling. I would be curious if the percentages are up because of less rofr contracts being available or the amount of points being available from those contracts during that particular month.

(Adding this) It will be interesting how many 25-50 point contracts are sold direct in the second half of this year.

 

[JHank44]

@JHank44 I love spreadsheets and data points. Thanks for sharing! It is interesting to see the ppp from your spreadsheet because the brokers are claiming it is currently closer to $120pp currently. I think it is also worth noting that they were taking back about 20% in November 2016 (when people say the prices are lower) and almost 45% in December 2016. That's a huge jump in a month. Then again, looking at last year vs. this year with ROFR rate, there seems to be no discernible pattern as to when they ramp up buybacks. January 2016 was almost no buybacks where January 2017 was over 40%. What the heck goes on in those committee meetings?!?

There was a discernible shift in BLT ROFR rates after Disney new fiscal year in October 1. They definitely increased their floor and how they do things but not sure what exactly changed. As said, average was 10-15% and then jumped to 25% on average. Note that these are when the documents are filed at OCC so ~1 month lag from when they exercise ROFR or ~2 month when it was submitted.

 

[JHank44]

Also, is there any data (I know the OC recorder doesn't have it) on whether there's any seasonal correlation with loaded and stripped contracts, or prices and stripped/loaded contracts? I'm sure @JHank44 signed up to do a multivariate analysis....

You cannot get the point totals on OCC website. You have to use the ROFR thread to get an idea on loadedness. My view is that the median price on OCC is a basic contract price (e.g. has 2017 points for today - not stripped nor loaded) and you can adjust accordingly from there.

 

[JHank44]

@JHank44 Thanks, I love this data.

Is the percentage up because of less contracts? Less points?
Has total points taken monthly via rofr also been increasing?
Have the amount of points sold direct been increasing?

Overall, transactions are up slightly. They are just taking more of them. I think they used to be very aggressive selling new resorts direct but they must have changed that policy a bit to allow more direct at whatever resort you want so now they take more:

 

[kboo]

You cannot get the point totals on OCC website. You have to use the ROFR thread to get an idea on loadedness. My view is that the median price on OCC is a basic contract price (e.g. has 2017 points for today - not stripped nor loaded) and you can adjust accordingly from there.

Yes - I was not suggesting you do more than you already have! This did make me go to some old ROFR threads, and of course I noticed the outliers: I saw a fully loaded large BLT contract pass at $89 pp in early 2016! Wow. It does seem (again, anecdotally) that there's less variability in ppp now than there was a year ago. Perhaps the market is getting more efficient.

 

[JHank44]

@JHank44 Thanks for sharing! It is interesting to see the ppp from your spreadsheet because the brokers are claiming it is currently closer to $120pp currently.

One last thing on your note about broker prices. It is in their incentive to make prices as high as possible as their commission is % of sale price. I found a number of the larger websites to be "seller biased" = overstating market values. Whereas there are other websites that are more neutral/fair on pricing.

That being said, based on ROFR thread it seemed like contracts prices would be increasing but the OCC does not bare that out.

 

[kboo]

Overall, transactions are up slightly. They are just taking more of them. I think they used to be very aggressive selling new resorts direct but they must have changed that policy a bit to allow more direct at whatever resort you want so now they take more:
View attachment 252534

I wonder if there's been an uptick in 25-point direct add ons after they changed their policy about resale points.

 

[TexasChick123]

One last thing on your note about broker prices. It is in their incentive to make prices as high as possible as their commission is % of sale price. I found a number of the larger websites to be "seller biased" = overstating market values. Whereas there are other websites that are more neutral/fair on pricing.

That being said, based on ROFR thread it seemed like contracts prices would be increasing but the OCC does not bare that out.

I will take your hard and fast data supported numbers over the brokers' "averages". There is one broker, who I think is price gouging so much that I wish I could send out a PSA to NEVER use them. That broker's agents aren't very friendly either to boot. Oh well. "A fool and his money will soon be parted."

 

[JHank44]

I wonder if there's been an uptick in 25-point direct add ons after they changed their policy about resale points.

Recently there has been but the total amount of points is pretty small to matter a whole lot:

 

[kboo]

Recently there has been but the total amount of points is pretty small to matter a whole lot:
View attachment 252536

Well there goes THAT theory! Or - will be interesting to see what happens in the coming year.

 

[PapaCharles]

Overall, transactions are up slightly. They are just taking more of them. I think they used to be very aggressive selling new resorts direct but they must have changed that policy a bit to allow more direct at whatever resort you want so now they take more:
View attachment 252534

Looking at this chart is appears the number of points they took via rofr are at a much higher percentage of the points sold 3rd party in Dec'16 and Jan '17 compared to all the other months

 

[PapaCharles]

Well there goes THAT theory! Or - will be interesting to see what happens in the coming year.

@kboo I'm on board with your theory. I'll be curious on these numbers after we see the July-Dec '17 25-50 point direct sales

 

[PapaCharles]

@JHank44 you now have me grabbing all the occ BLT data for my spreadsheet

 

[PapaCharles]

BLT OCC Data....
May: 54 Total 3rd Party, 10 Taken via ROFR or 18.52%, 48 Direct Sales, 6 Foreclosures
June: 78 Total 3rd Party, 12 Taken via ROFR or 15.38%, 39 Direct Sales, 11 Forclosures

May Taken = 4 April, 2 June, 4 Aug
June Taken = 1 Feb, 2 June, 2 Aug, 4 Sept, 1 Oct, 2 Dec

May 3rd Party Avg PPP = $110.90
June 3rd Party Avg PPP =$111.94

 

[TexasChick123]

BLT OCC Data....
May: 54 Total 3rd Party, 10 Taken via ROFR or 18.52%, 48 Direct Sales, 6 Foreclosures
June: 78 Total 3rd Party, 12 Taken via ROFR or 15.38%, 39 Direct Sales, 11 Forclosures

May Taken = 4 April, 2 June, 4 Aug
June Taken = 1 Feb, 2 June, 2 Aug, 4 Sept, 1 Oct, 2 Dec

I have a question. Is the data in May or June when the actual contracts closed? For example, I had a Sep UY contract taken by ROFR in May. Is that perhaps one of them listed in June because that's when they closed? It had 250 pts.

 

[PapaCharles]

I have a question. Is the data in May or June when the actual contracts closed? For example, I had a Sep UY contract taken by ROFR in May. Is that perhaps one of them listed in June because that's when they closed? It had 250 pts.

Should be, I noticed most June Filings had Deed dates 7-30+ days prior. And there were 2 Sept Contracts at 250 points at $102 pp taken on the June Filings

 

[TexasChick123]

Should be, I noticed most June Filings had Deed dates 7-30+ days prior. And there were 2 Sept Contracts at 250 points at $102 pp taken on the June Filings

Yep, I just found it. One of them was ours that got taken. :/ However, we decided 250pts was too many for us, so DVD exercising ROFR on that particular one was a blessing in disguise.

I wanted to add that they exercised ROFR on 5/9 and closed by 5/24. Way to speed up the process for yourselves, DVD.

 

[PapaCharles]

Yep, I just found it. One of them was ours that got taken. :/ However, we decided 250pts was too many for us, so DVD exercising ROFR on that particular one was a blessing in disguise.

I wanted to add that they exercised ROFR on 5/9 and closed by 5/24. Way to speed up the process for yourselves, DVD.

I noticed the speed or lack of alot while entering the two months of data, noticed where some of closing companies were 7-15 days after deed date to when it was filed, and some were less than 7.

 

[TexasChick123]

I noticed the speed or lack of alot while entering the two months of data, noticed where some of closing companies were 7-15 days after deed date to when it was filed, and some were less than 7.

Yeah. It closed on 5/24 but recorded on 6/14. I was referring to the quick turnaround with estoppel and closing for them, but the recording time is pretty long from the closing date. Who knows?!?

 

[JHank44]

BLT OCC Data....
May: 54 Total 3rd Party, 10 Taken via ROFR or 18.52%, 48 Direct Sales, 6 Foreclosures
June: 78 Total 3rd Party, 12 Taken via ROFR or 15.38%, 39 Direct Sales, 11 Forclosures

May Taken = 4 April, 2 June, 4 Aug
June Taken = 1 Feb, 2 June, 2 Aug, 4 Sept, 1 Oct, 2 Dec

May 3rd Party Avg PPP = $110.90
June 3rd Party Avg PPP =$111.94

I just updated my stats for May. My details don't quite jive with yours...

44 3rd, 16 ROFR, 49 Direct, 0 Foreclosures for total of 109. There were 11 name changes (doc tax < $1 where disney is not buyer) but I ignore those. Perhaps I missed some foreclosures but my contract totals add up to what OCC is pulling.

Also, your months are off.
ROFR: 2xFeb, 5xApr, 2xJun, 5xAug, 2xSep