What is BLT worth per point?

[PapaCharles]

I just updated my stats for May. My details don't quite jive with yours...

44 3rd, 16 ROFR, 49 Direct, 0 Foreclosures for total of 109. There were 11 name changes (doc tax < $1 where disney is not buyer) but I ignore those. Perhaps I missed some foreclosures but my contract totals add up to what OCC is pulling.

Also, your months are off.
ROFR: 2xFeb, 5xApr, 2xJun, 5xAug, 2xSep

Looks like maybe I'm missing 1 direct and marked 6 rofr as foreclosures

In regards to your 44 3rd, I'm guessing that does not include your 16 rofr?

I'll recheck my work, thanks for the info

 

[CvilleDiane]

@JHank44 How can you determine ROFR vs foreclosure? I'm a BLT owner so have been loosely following this thread but I'm waiting on ROFR for a poly contract. I couldn't determine if contracts were taken back vs been foreclosed on the OCC site.

 

[JHank44]

Looks like maybe I'm missing 1 direct and marked 6 rofr as foreclosures

In regards to your 44 3rd, I'm guessing that does not include your 16 rofr?

I'll recheck my work, thanks for the info

No, I categorize them separately as 3rd (=resale deeds), Direct, ROFR, and foreclosure.

 

[JHank44]

@JHank44 How can you determine ROFR vs foreclosure? I'm a BLT owner so have been loosely following this thread but I'm waiting on ROFR for a poly contract. I couldn't determine if contracts were taken back vs been foreclosed on the OCC site.

You have to look at the actual deed recorded. There is no easy way of knowing until you look at each document.

 

[CvilleDiane]

You have to look at the actual deed recorded. There is no easy way of knowing until you look at each document.

Ah, ok. Thanks!

 

[PapaCharles]

No, I categorize them separately as 3rd (=resale deeds), Direct, ROFR, and foreclosure.

I match your numbers now, I made a bad assumption on the forclosures based on price that I forgot to check into further and had missed one direct

So, 26.67% taken in May

Thanks for your help, guess I'll recheck my June now

 

[DVCcurious]

to the OP:

We just got an offer on our 250 BLT for $98. Judging by the previous comments about buying BLT around $102 I'd say your 270 pt contract is worth around $100 per point.

At least we can guess it's closer to $100 than $130.

Of course I turned the offer down with no counter.

 

[PapaCharles]

to the OP:

We just got an offer on our 250 BLT for $98. Judging by the previous comments about buying BLT around $102 I'd say your 270 pt contract is worth around $100 per point.

At least we can guess it's closer to $100 than $130.

Of course I turned the offer down with no counter.

 

[TexasChick123]

to the OP:

We just got an offer on our 250 BLT for $98. Judging by the previous comments about buying BLT around $102 I'd say your 270 pt contract is worth around $100 per point.

At least we can guess it's closer to $100 than $130.

Of course I turned the offer down with no counter.

I'm guessing DVD would exercise ROFR on a contract at $98pp, but you never know. I'm curious as to why you didn't counter for that person (No, it wasn't me as I am restricting any more add-ons for myself). Even if you countered at $114 when you are listed at $115, they could come up. I always started low and asked for everything from them (i.e. them paying closing and MF's) and met somewhere in the middle with my deals. Maybe you thought ya'll would be too far apart on amount for it to be worth your time? I also wonder what price people are actually paying for those contracts listed with the one broker that is so much higher than everyone else. I can't imagine that they sprinkle pixie dust on their totally stripped contracts listed for $119+ per point and get everyone to pay it, but what do I know?!?

 

[DVCcurious]

I didn't counter because someone in this deal is not being serious. Either the true value is $100 and I'm being unrealistic or the true value is $112 and the offeree is being unrealistic.

They want to buy a BLT contract for below $100. They should keep making offers and maybe they'll get lucky. I have no hard feelings on this.

We obviously place a significantly different value on the item, so the best thing is to agree to disagree and move on.

 

[JHank44]

I didn't counter because someone in this deal is not being serious. Either the true value is $100 and I'm being unrealistic or the true value is $112 and the offeree is being unrealistic.

They want to buy a BLT contract for below $100. They should keep making offers and maybe they'll get lucky. I have no hard feelings on this.

We obviously place a significantly different value on the item, so the best thing is to agree to disagree and move on.

$100 for stripped contract is not unreasonable but DVC might take it. If it has points it is on the low side. Based on data, $110-$115 is "fair" for non-stripped/non-loaded contract. As @TexasChick123 said, I tend to start out low to leave room to improve but found starting too low tends to be counterproductive as in your case.

 

[mustinjourney]

Overall, transactions are up slightly. They are just taking more of them. I think they used to be very aggressive selling new resorts direct but they must have changed that policy a bit to allow more direct at whatever resort you want so now they take more:
View attachment 252534

I wonder if that is due to the changes in resale membership benefits? I know I would have never bought my 25 point direct contract had they not changed the rules -- so while 25 points isn't a lot of points, if a large number of people* are doing that, it adds up. And that means more ROFR.

*ETA -- based on his other chart -- I see that there aren't a large number of people doing the 25 point add-ons. Certainly less than I would have thought.

 

[mustinjourney]

I wonder if there's been an uptick in 25-point direct add ons after they changed their policy about resale points.

I would assume there has to be. Prior to the change, there was not really a big incentive to only add-on 25 points. Post 4/4, there is a big incentive if you are wanting annual passes (especially now with the reduced price of platinum passes).

ETA -- I now see his other chart which doesn't really support this theory. I would have thought there were more direct add-ons than what the charts show.

 

[mustinjourney]

Recently there has been but the total amount of points is pretty small to matter a whole lot:
View attachment 252536

wow -- that is surprisingly small.

 

[TexasChick123]

I would assume there has to be. Prior to the change, there was not really a big incentive to only add-on 25 points. Post 4/4, there is a big incentive if you are wanting annual passes (especially now with the reduced price of platinum passes).

ETA -- I now see his other chart which doesn't really support this theory. I would have thought there were more direct add-ons than what the charts show.

There are a lot of people who bought resale prior to the changes in April '16 having no idea the changes were coming who have lucked out (I'm one of them), and we have no reason for the 25 point add-on. Also, a lot of people bought direct in the past, so they have no reason to add-on direct points for benefits. I have no data to support this, but I have to imagine that repurchasers are an extremely large amount, if not the majority amount, of resale purchases which would explain the smaller amount of those buying 25 pts directly because they already have the perks from prior contracts.

 

[TexasChick123]

I didn't counter because someone in this deal is not being serious. Either the true value is $100 and I'm being unrealistic or the true value is $112 and the offeree is being unrealistic.

They want to buy a BLT contract for below $100. They should keep making offers and maybe they'll get lucky. I have no hard feelings on this.

We obviously place a significantly different value on the item, so the best thing is to agree to disagree and move on.

Just to give you some unsolicited feedback, I think $100-$105 is in the ballpark since there aren't really points until February 2019. Those 25 points won't make or break it for someone. They will just be "bonus points". Also, a 250 point contract is quite large and harder to move because it is at a more expensive resort. As February gets closer and closer, I think the interest will pick up in your contract because then the person only needs to wait 1 year for full points instead of 1.5 years. As a current DVC owner, I'd love to see the value skyrocket. It'll be interesting to watch considering all the new things coming to Disney!

 

[mustinjourney]

There are a lot of people who bought resale prior to the changes in April '16 having no idea the changes were coming who have lucked out (I'm one of them), and we have no reason for the 25 point add-on. Also, a lot of people bought direct in the past, so they have no reason to add-on direct points for benefits. I have no data to support this, but I have to imagine that repurchasers are an extremely large amount, if not the majority amount, or resale purchases which would explain the smaller amount of those buying 25 pts directly because they already have the perks from prior contracts.

Makes sense. Sometimes I forget that not everyone is new like me.

 

[TexasChick123]

Makes sense. Sometimes I forget that not everyone is new like me.

If it makes you feel any better, we closed in March 2016 with absolutely no knowledge of any upcoming changes. At the time, we were told we couldn't use points for Adventures by Disney, the resort collection, or any cruises which are all a horrible use of your points, so we didn't care. We honestly just lucked out. Who could've guessed they would add all these perks and events and exclude resale buyers?!? I think ppl predicted it for years, but they finally did it. DVD seems to be getting more cutthroat with ROFR and resale in general. Maybe someone at DVD did some financial analysis and realized there was a lot of money being left on the table because of resale.

 

[mustinjourney]

If it makes you feel any better, we closed in March 2016 with absolutely no knowledge of any upcoming changes. At the time, we were told we couldn't use points for Adventures by Disney, the resort collection, or any cruises which are all a horrible use of your points, so we didn't care. We honestly just lucked out. Who could've guessed they would add all these perks and events and exclude resale buyers?!? I think ppl predicted it for years, but they finally did it. DVD seems to be getting more cutthroat with ROFR and resale in general. Maybe someone at DVD did some financial analysis and realized there was a lot of money being left on the table because of resale.

well -- the good news (for me personally) is that I was able to convince DW that we needed 25 points direct to get the discounted APs, so I was able to get 25 points at BCV direct that otherwise my wife would have never let me do. With buying 4 APs a year, "saving" $800 per year almost made it stupid NOT to buy the points. I'm using those points for a solo trip (DW won't go more than 2 times in a year) in October for golf and F&W. Definitely would not have been allowed to do that if we didn't have those BCV points.

 

[TexasChick123]

well -- the good news (for me personally) is that I was able to convince DW that we needed 25 points direct to get the discounted APs, so I was able to get 25 points at BCV direct that otherwise my wife would have never let me do. With buying 4 APs a year, "saving" $800 per year almost made it stupid NOT to buy the points. I'm using those points for a solo trip (DW won't go more than 2 times in a year) in October for golf and F&W. Definitely would not have been allowed to do that if we didn't have those BCV points.

Now that's turning lemons into lemonade!!! There will be a day when I convince my DH to go more than once a year, but it hasn't happened yet. Honestly, I may just go with either his mom and/or my mom and the kids. Our moms love it as much as I do, and I would have an extra hand with the kids. I just wish we could drive there in a day instead of 2, but I can't change that. Good news is that the flights are pretty cheap from here!