What do you think will happen to VGC pricing when Disneyland Tower is built?

[JoshF]

I know that it's impossible to know for sure but I was wondering what do you think will happen to the pricing of Grand Californian once the Disneyland Tower is up and running? VGC seems to be listing and sometimes selling above $200 per point recently. Will this take a hit when there's more options at DL or will it hold it's value? I would imagine it will be less rare at that point and might not fetch such a large premium at that point. Thoughts?

 

[vacay77]

I don't know if it will lose its value over time, but I did talk to a Disney sales agent yesterday who told me that they are no longer allowing people to go on the waitlist anymore for VGC because the waitlist is so long. Also, I think the one advantage VGC will have over the new DL tower is that it still has the theme park entrance. I love the DH hotel but it's still a walk through Downtown Disney to get to the parks, unless you take the monorail into Tomorrowland but even then, the monorail can be very unreliable.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

I don't think it will take a huge hit. Like @vacay77 said, it still has the exclusive park entrance. It has a different theme than the Disneyland Hotel and it's also very small, so there will still be more demand than supply.

I think the price will dip some, but not too much, although I think the price per point of the new Disneyland Tower will play a role in how much the VGC resale will cost. For example, I think Rivieria launched at $188 + incentives, bringing the cost down to $170ish or so. If a new, direct contract is $50 per point less than a VGC resale, I think the resale prices will soften. If the DLH Tower launches at $200 without incentives, then VGC won't soften nearly as much.

 

[Royal Consort]

I certainly think the heat will go out of it but it won't collapse. The high prices are representative of it being the only DL DVC unit and there being such limited availability. The DLH tower will reduce this problem substantially. There will be less of a mad rush on VGC after DLH and so prices will be more reasonable and competitive. Its appeal is in its location and DCA entry. Some will pay a premium for that (even if it feels like you have spent several years walking down hallways).

 

[lovethesun12]

VGC is untouchable IMO. I doubt it will move much.

 

[taaren]

I don't know if the DLH will affect the price of VGC resale so much as the recession will. I bought direct points for $96 in '08 and by '10 I bought my resale contract for $82 since the recession forced a lot of people to sell. This one will likely force people to sell again.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

There is no substitute for VGC/GC. The lobby, the restaurants, the awesome pools, cabanas, pool bars, and location/DCA entrance cannot be touched by a new DVC. That said, having lots more units to book into at 7 mos will help lower the price because you may not NEED to buy at DLR to stay on prop. Still, I think because the sales price will be so high for the new property and demand will still far exceed supply at 7 mos, the price won’t change dramatically. Maybe $20 less than whatever the new one is selling for ?? Or who knows, maybe it becomes more valuable by comparison!

 

[Frederic Civish]

There is no way the new Disneyland tower is going to decrease the value or cost of VGC. Grand Californian is UNIQUE and is definitely a top experience whereas the DVC Disneyland Tower will just be a 'place to stay.' If anything, having it around will help to emphasize the advantages that VGC has, so it might even increase the price. But people who want VGC want VGC. In other words, for most people, it isn't just a place to stay, but a special place in itself.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

There is no way the new Disneyland tower is going to decrease the value or cost of VGC. Grand Californian is UNIQUE and is definitely a top experience whereas the DVC Disneyland Tower will just be a 'place to stay.' If anything, having it around will help to emphasize the advantages that VGC has, so it might even increase the price. But people who want VGC want VGC. In other words, for most people, it isn't just a place to stay, but a special place in itself.

I'm sure this is true for a portion of VGC buyers, but it's hard to say what portion of the current potential buyer pool is looking for that something special vs any Disneyland DVC.

I don't anticipate the VGC price crashing, but I do think it has the potential to soften a bit just because of increased supply at Disneyland. I think it could be influenced by the price of the DLH tower.

However, the mix of room types at DLH tower vs VGC is could send some buyers to VGC, so maybe it continues to rise. It will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Eric Smith]

I think it will dip a bit but probably stay above 200 (unless resale prices tank overall). The location of VGC is better and you can’t beat the park entrance. DLH isn’t horrible and the security checkpoint on that side doesn’t really back up. DLH also has better food options than GC.

I think the DLH DVC will sell out fast enough that it won’t really affect VGC resale. If they keep resale restriction from Riviera in place I think that will also help to keep VGC resale prices stable.

 

[bookwormde]

My thoughts is that it will go up a little. This is from an expectation the DVD, to maximize profit, will be setting the price at around $260/pt (based on 9/22 sales start date) and the average studio stay will be close to 30 pts per night. This will make VGC look like are bargain at $200+

 

[Eric Smith]

My thoughts is that it will go up a little. This is from an expectation the DVD, to maximize profit, will be setting the price at around $260/pt (based on 9/22 sales start date) and the average studio stay will be close to 30 pts per night. This will make VGC look like are bargain at $200+

They’re not going to jump from Riviera opening at $188 to $260 per point. I’d expect the points charts to be fairly close to VGC

 

[bookwormde]

They’re not going to jump from Riviera opening at $188 to $260 per point. I’d expect the points charts to be fairly close to VGC

I would not consider Riviera an effective comparison, point chart is more iffy, but given the current VGC demand it will almost certainly be higher. The one factor that may depress my number some is the DVC II effect

 

[CastAStone]

I would not consider Riviera an effective comparison, point chart is more iffy, but given the current VGC demand it will almost certainly be higher. The one factor that may depress my number some is the DVC II effect

I think that price per point is possible but there’s no way they’ll be asking 30 points a night for the average studio. Maybe the garden units.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

I don't think it'll have much of an impact. VGC will still be the superior resort and I'm assuming the Disneyland Tower will have the same resale restrictions as Riviera (which is a non-starter for many buyers).

 

[CastAStone]

I don’t anticipate much meaningful change. GCH is the premier resort at DLR, and VGC is too small to be impacted meaningfully. Also the hike from DLH DVC will be much further than many off site options whereas VGC is right there.

Resale owners of any resort who purchased after 2018 will only be able to use their points at VGC which will keep the resort selling out completely at exactly 7 months.

 

[gharter]

It may make a little difference depending on how the new resort is themed. VGC is beautiful. I doubt the prices will drop much.