What do you think will happen to US cruises if Coronavirus spreads?

[pangyal]

Boarded the Dream today for a B2B. The enhanced questionnaire asked whether we had travelled to Macau/ Hong Kong or China recently as well as the normal fever/coughing/gastric issues questions.

The CM who checked us in also flipped through every page in our passports to confirm no stamps from those countries. She did say that with US travellers, many just use a birth certificate or card to board the ship so there is no way to confirm where they might have travelled recently.

 

[Karin1984]

We cruise in about 3 weeks on the dream. Just hope disney doesn't start cancelling.

There is no reason to start cancelling cruises now. Disney will do everything in its power to keep sailing. Not till the US has the same amount of cases as China, there will not be anything drastic.

 

[tarheelz]

In answer to the origional question, I'm hopeful the effect is to drive rates down - way down. They've been climbing faster than inflation for some time.

 

[xiphoid76]

Boarded the Dream today for a B2B. The enhanced questionnaire asked whether we had travelled to Macau/ Hong Kong or China recently as well as the normal fever/coughing/gastric issues questions.

The CM who checked us in also flipped through every page in our passports to confirm no stamps from those countries. She did say that with US travellers, many just use a birth certificate or card to board the ship so there is no way to confirm where they might have travelled recently.

We have stamps from Hong Kong and a 10 year visa stamp from china - were in both last January. I will be interested to see if they look that closely at our passports. We cruise next week.

 

[GatorMomInNC]

I do think that all curies lines should consider allowing some sort of refund if you cancel due to being sick, so people will (hopefully) be more truthful about self-reporting their symptoms on the cards.

 

[squirk]

I do think that all curies lines should consider allowing some sort of refund if you cancel due to being sick, so people will (hopefully) be more truthful about self-reporting their symptoms on the cards.

Homeland Security can (and most likely will) help DCL tag people who traveled to the impacted areas but try to use a birth certificate instead of a passport to hide that fact.

But as for people who didn't travel to those areas, but still may have contracted it from someone who has traveled to those areas, yeah, this might be a case where it's in everyone's best interests for DCL to offer a little "honesty incentive".

 

[ludari]

I'm mildly concerned just because I believe that the Chinese government is not being truthful about the virus.

 

[squirk]

I'm mildly concerned just because I believe that the Chinese government is not being truthful about the virus.

What do you think the Chinese government is not disclosing that we can't independently identify/verify on our own by now?

 

[Maggie'sMom]

What do you think the Chinese government is not disclosing that we can't independently identify/verify on our own by now?

The true numbers of infections and deaths. A guy I work with immigrated from China and most of his family is still there. He said he's heard from them that many people who go to the hospital get sent home because the hospitals are completely overwhelmed. Many die at home, and the Chinese government isn't counting those in the tallies of either infections or deaths.

 

[auntrenae]

I will be cruising on the Dream in a couple of weeks. I’m wondering if DCL has started any enhanced health screenings at the terminal in Port Canaveral prior to cruise and if perhaps the Bahamas will not allow ships to dock for fear of the virus by then.

We're also sailing, on the 24th on the Dream, and DCL has started enhanced screenings, as well as a ban on anyone who has travelled to, from or through China within 20 days of boarding, which is the same as entering the US. They are checking every page in passports as well as a questionaire before allowing entry to the terminal.

 

[slmoy1016]

Going to be sailing on Disney Wonder to Hawaii in April. I know my mom is worried a lot given that it's a long cruise. I'm hoping things will eventually settle, but not holding my breath. I currently work in college health setting and the fear of Coronavirus is at the top still...given a lot of students travelled from Asia and back during that time frame before travel restrictions were enforced. And with CDC changing their Coronavirus screening guidelines as of this past weekend to widen their net, it's challenging in trying to catch everyone and put them in person of interest case (PUI) if they meet criteria. Long story short, I will be packing hand sanitizer, one travel size Lysol bottle, and some disinfectant wipes. Good hand hygiene goes a long way!

 

[squirk]

The true numbers of infections and deaths. A guy I work with immigrated from China and most of his family is still there. He said he's heard from them that many people who go to the hospital get sent home because the hospitals are completely overwhelmed. Many die at home, and the Chinese government isn't counting those in the tallies of either infections or deaths.

So, third-hand information?

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but instead of hypothesizing on the billion different possibilities that the Chinese government might not be telling us about (zombie plague? biological weapon gone awry? causes spontaneous combustion?) or relying on "I heard from a friend....", why not stick with objective information from people who literally do this for a living and have had a chance to study the virus first-hand: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

 

[Maggie'sMom]

So, third-hand information?

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but instead of hypothesizing on the billion different possibilities that the Chinese government might not be telling us about (zombie plague? biological weapon gone awry? causes spontaneous combustion?) or relying on "I heard from a friend....", why not stick with objective information from people who literally do this for a living and have had a chance to study the virus first-hand: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

Because the Chinese government doesn't have a good track record of honesty. The story of what they did to the doctor who tried to sound the alarm on this back in December is a good example of them trying to cover up the truth. I never said this was a zombie plague, bioweapon, or any conspiracy theory. And I don't even think it's something that 99% of people in the US need to worry about getting right now. But you asked what we thought the Chinese government wasn't disclosing that we couldn't independently verify. That's the true numbers of how many people are infected and dead. There are multiple, credible reports coming out from regular citizens that this is far worse than the numbers being reported by the government. So yes, I will believe my coworker whose family is there over the Chinese government any day. And I don't know why you pointed me to the CDC website. There's nothing on that FAQ that addresses how the Chinese government has a long history of dishonesty regarding things like this.

 

[squirk]

Because the Chinese government doesn't have a good track record of honesty. The story of what they did to the doctor who tried to sound the alarm on this back in December is a good example of them trying to cover up the truth. I never said this was a zombie plague, bioweapon, or any conspiracy theory. And I don't even think it's something that 99% of people in the US need to worry about getting right now. But you asked what we thought the Chinese government wasn't disclosing that we couldn't independently verify. That's the true numbers of how many people are infected and dead. There are multiple, credible reports coming out from regular citizens that this is far worse than the numbers being reported by the government. So yes, I will believe my coworker whose family is there over the Chinese government any day. And I don't know why you pointed me to the CDC website. There's nothing on that FAQ that addresses how the Chinese government has a long history of dishonesty regarding things like this.

I don’t necessarily trust them either. Just as I didn’t trust Mexico to be completely forthcoming about H1N1.

My point is - by now, what does it matter what they did or did not tell us? Whether they lied or not, whether they’re continuing to lie or not, we don’t have to rely on the Chinese government for information.

The virus is out there. It’s been collected, studied, and continues to be studied, by epidemiologists and other scientists in our own country working for an agency meant to protect us.

I’ll rely upon information from the CDC vs. worrying about withheld information from the Chinese government.

And not to minimize the deaths that have occurred or the grief of the families of those people, but I will look to our own national health organization re: if and how much I should be worried vs. “reports from citizens” in China who, for all I know, might be passing along, in complete good faith, inaccurate or incomplete third-hand information of their own.

Please understand, I am not saying that your mistrust is unwarranted at all. I just don’t think, purely in terms of whether or not one should sail on DCL, it’s a worthwhile effort to hypothesize on what the Chinese government *might* have been holding back. You could drive yourself crazy going down an endless array of rabbit holes of possibilities, and still never know for sure if the Chinese government is really telling us everything.

The CDC, WHO and a wide number of other national health agencies are all on the case. I would be highly surprised if there is something huge that China knows about that none of those other agencies haven‘t been able to divine by now. The Chinese government’s disclosure, or lack thereof, is moot.

 

[blabadie]

Not sure if anyone's seen this, but NCL is now preventing all China, Hong Kong, and Macau passport holders to board regardless of when they were last there. All other cruisers will be prevented from boarding if they've been to those locations in the last 30 days. There is mention on the page about people who would denied boarding due to these reasons will be refunded (need to provide proof.)

https://www.ncl.com/in/en/travel-alert/coronavirus

 

[vegs1]

I do think that all curies lines should consider allowing some sort of refund if you cancel due to being sick, so people will (hopefully) be more truthful about self-reporting their symptoms on the cards.

This is exactly why everyone should have travel insurance. If you’re sick, you cancel and get your money back.

We should all be truthful self reporting symptoms as many people are immuno-compromised. As well, a cruise ship is so contained that any illness you bring on board spreads quickly. Be honest and buy insurance.

 

[GatorMomInNC]

Yes, all true. But if people were not prescient enough to buy insurance, I don't want to punish (and thus discourage) traveler's from honesty reporting their medical issues, concerned with losing thousands of dollars in travel bookings. I am not talking about an ideal world, but the real world and what can be done as a practical matter to encourage people to honestly self-report and protect everyone.

 

[squirk]

This is exactly why everyone should have travel insurance. If you’re sick, you cancel and get your money back.

We should all be truthful self reporting symptoms as many people are immuno-compromised. As well, a cruise ship is so contained that any illness you bring on board spreads quickly. Be honest and buy insurance.

That is the way the world should work, but not how it does work.

When you’re two days away from sailing and you start to develop a nasty cough, even if you have insurance, you’re not going to tell your three kids who’ve been looking forward to this trip for a year that they now can’t go. You’ll rationalize (“it’s not the flu; it’s just hay fever”) or you’ll outright lie about symptoms in order to get on the ship and not disappoint your kids.

Again, I’m not saying that’s what people should do, but it’s probably what most would do.

 

[gotomu212]

I don’t necessarily trust them either. Just as I didn’t trust Mexico to be completely forthcoming about H1N1.

My point is - by now, what does it matter what they did or did not tell us? Whether they lied or not, whether they’re continuing to lie or not, we don’t have to rely on the Chinese government for information.

The virus is out there. It’s been collected, studied, and continues to be studied, by epidemiologists and other scientists in our own country working for an agency meant to protect us.

I’ll rely upon information from the CDC vs. worrying about withheld information from the Chinese government.

And not to minimize the deaths that have occurred or the grief of the families of those people, but I will look to our own national health organization re: if and how much I should be worried vs. “reports from citizens” in China who, for all I know, might be passing along third-hand information of their own.

I think the misinformation/lack of full and ho set reporting from China is still very important to the study of the spread and habits of the virus. Yes, we have other cases to study, but there seems to be a long lead time from incubation, to serious symptoms, to death that the 4 weeks lead this had in China is critical. In 2 weeks we’ve gone from them reporting ~1,000 cases to over 30,000. Has the disease crossed some mutation threshold, is it that cases take a long time to detect, is the death rate really higher/lower from unreported cases? Another big issue is the contagion period. Although people in the US are being released, they are still on home quarantine because we have such a limited data set now we aren’t sure if you’re contagious only when symptomatic (which appears to be 2-3 weeks but the recovery numbers are still low which means people are sick for a long time) or if you carry the virus longer and when are you longer contagious? With a 2 week incubation and 2 week or longer illness, the fact that it’s only recently appeared elsewhere is limiting study. If we had more trusted info and international cooperation in China, we may have more answers on how infections act at a month, and better contact tracing.

Its very telling that just this week their government initially lied about the death of Dr. Li, and they are charging people for crimes against society for posting what was later confirmed as truth. Is Wuhan a snapshot of what other countries can expect in 6 weeks, or did something happen there to make things expand so rapidly (and if so what?)

The CDC actions seem to suggest this is much more serious than other recent bugs.

 

[squirk]

I think the misinformation/lack of full and ho set reporting from China is still very important to the study of the spread and habits of the virus. Yes, we have other cases to study, but there seems to be a long lead time from incubation, to serious symptoms, to death that the 4 weeks lead this had in China is critical. In 2 weeks we’ve gone from them reporting ~1,000 cases to over 30,000. Has the disease crossed some mutation threshold, is it that cases take a long time to detect, is the death rate really higher/lower from unreported cases? Another big issue is the contagion period. Although people in the US are being released, they are still on home quarantine because we have such a limited data set now we aren’t sure if you’re contagious only when symptomatic (which appears to be 2-3 weeks but the recovery numbers are still low which means people are sick for a long time) or if you carry the virus longer and when are you longer contagious? With a 2 week incubation and 2 week or longer illness, the fact that it’s only recently appeared elsewhere is limiting study. If we had more trusted info and international cooperation in China, we may have more answers on how infections act at a month, and better contact tracing.

Its very telling that just this week their government initially lied about the death of Dr. Li, and they are charging people for crimes against society for posting what was later confirmed as truth. Is Wuhan a snapshot of what other countries can expect in 6 weeks, or did something happen there to make things expand so rapidly (and if so what?)

The CDC actions seem to suggest this is much more serious than other recent bugs.

Your points are well-taken, but here's the thing - none of us here are epidemiologists (actually, I take that back - I think there is at least one active member who actually is an epidemiologist). None of us are locked in on this anywhere near the level that the CDC is.

All of those things you listed above - as I said earlier, you can clutch your pearls about all of the "what if"'s until the cows come home, but the fact of the matter is that the people at the CDC are not naive fools; they know about the Chinese government's control of information. I guarantee you that they are not taking any information released by Beijing as a given. All of the stuff you listed above is already "baked into" the CDC's most recent guidelines.

And as of today, they are not calling for any drastic changes for the public as a whole. They describe the immediate overall health risk to the U.S. as low. The guidance they are giving - other than not going to mainland China - is pretty standard stuff: wash your hands; cover your mouth and nose with your sleeve when you sneeze; avoid sick people who were recently in China, especially if you're very young, very old or already have compromised health. The public is not being told to don face masks or stay indoors. The public is not being told to avoid large crowds, air travel or cruise ships.

Yes, the situation is fluid and it could change, but honestly, if the CDC thought there was something major that China was withholding - something that could drastically impact the nation's health for the worse - we'd be getting a lot more stringent guidelines than we've gotten so far.

I think I've made my point by now. Some people may disagree with me, and that's OK. I don't need to keep going back and forth to prove anyone "wrong" just to make me feel "right". It's merely my opinion.

Signing off.