What do you think will happen to US cruises if Coronavirus spreads?

[DisneYE]

We totally do not have the flu totally under control. Do you know how many people have died of the flu just in the US this year? It far dwarfs coronavirus.

In the sense that there is a treatment protocol, and they know how to mitigate it, yes it is.
They know what antibiotics/antivirals to prescribe, for how long, etc.
There is no set of treatment guidelines for coronavirus, yet. It's why some cities/places are in lockdown, so that they try to contain it. They don't lockdown places for a flu outbreak even though it kills thousands a year.

 

[monkeydawn]

I'm not looking for "satisfactory answers". I'm just curious as to what other ppl think. It's why this place is called "a forum".. I guess the idea of a rational discussion triggers some ppl?

People give their opinions and you say that "my question still stands" and then repeat the same question that is impossible for anyone to answer. That gives the impression you were unsatisfied with the responses thus far.

If you are looking for a discussion that's one thing but you clearly stated-more than once-that you were looking for an answer.

 

[Jess_S]

I don't think we know for sure, but at this stage, I would assume that any cruise ship that has a *confirmed* case of coronavirus would be quarantined. It may not be on the ship- it could be a land-based quarantine, but seeing as this thing seems to be very contagious, if one person is showing enough symptoms to 1) be tested, and 2) come up positive, there are likely others onboard who are infected.

For a tiny bit of good news, the WHO said today that 80% of cases they've seen, result in mild cold-like symptoms. Unfortunately, for those other 20%, 3/4 end up with pneumonia, and 1/3 end up in the ICU. (*) Armchair quarterbacking from here on: I was talking to a graduate school friend of mine who is in the field of epidemiology, and he was speculating that the high rate of smoking (especially amongst men) in China, as well as the well known high levels of air pollution, may be causing a higher number of severe cases in China. I think we're going to start seeing a lot more concrete information in the coming days from sources outside of China. Hopefully that will start to shed a bit more light on the severity of this bug.

This is such an interesting point. I have been following the situation closely because we had a trip to Singapore planned this week. (We cancelled). The apparent discrepancy between the rate of severe illness in China versus elsewhere was one thing that I found puzzling. Though the rate of people in the ICU in Singapore does seem to be increasing as the situation there develops.

 

[mmmears]

This is such an interesting point. I have been following the situation closely because we had a trip to Singapore planned this week. (We cancelled). The apparent discrepancy between the rate of severe illness in China versus elsewhere was one thing that I found puzzling. Though the rate of people in the ICU in Singapore does seem to be increasing as the situation there develops.

I think it's too early to tell. It seems like it takes a week (or more) for some of those cases to turn critical, and longer for people to either recover or fail to, so I think we are seeing the early stages outside of China and don't have concrete data to say how many need serious care yet. This thing is really frightening, and yes, I get my flu shot every year but the flu doesn't scare me nearly as much as this done. They don't lock down entire districts and cities when the flu strikes.

 

[disneyholic family]

I think it's too early to tell. It seems like it takes a week (or more) for some of those cases to turn critical, and longer for people to either recover or fail to, so I think we are seeing the early stages outside of China and don't have concrete data to say how many need serious care yet. This thing is really frightening, and yes, I get my flu shot every year but the flu doesn't scare me nearly as much as this done. They don't lock down entire districts and cities when the flu strikes.

i'm with you. This one definitely scares me. Not just the possibility of contracting it.
But also the economic impact that it's already having and could have in the future.
.

 

[DisneYE]

I think it's too early to tell. It seems like it takes a week (or more) for some of those cases to turn critical, and longer for people to either recover or fail to, so I think we are seeing the early stages outside of China and don't have concrete data to say how many need serious care yet. This thing is really frightening, and yes, I get my flu shot every year but the flu doesn't scare me nearly as much as this done. They don't lock down entire districts and cities when the flu strikes.

Same.
I've gotten sick from the flu 2-3 times after returning from DCL cruises in the past, got it from either the ship or the airplane..Between business trips and holidays I fly 10-15x a year and get sick with the flu once or twice. I already know there's a good chance I'll get it even though I get the flu shot every year. I know its a price I may pay for traveling so often. And I'm OK with it, I don't go into panic mode bc I know there's a treatment protocol if I get sick.

but this new virus scares me because there are so many unknowns...I have the same mindset as you in that authorities don't quarantine entire cities if its something that is "just like the flu"

 

[smmco]

Same.
I've gotten sick from the flu 2-3 times after returning from DCL cruises in the past, got it from either the ship or the airplane..Between business trips and holidays I fly 10-15x a year and get sick with the flu once or twice. I already know there's a good chance I'll get it even though I get the flu shot every year. I know its a price I may pay for traveling so often. And I'm OK with it, I don't go into panic mode bc I know there's a treatment protocol if I get sick.

but this new virus scares me because there are so many unknowns...I have the same mindset as you in that authorities don't quarantine entire cities if its something that is "just like the flu"

Keep in mind 80% of people infected with the virus have mild symptoms. As far as quarantining entire cities we are talking about communist China...

 

[cruisehopeful]

I actually wasn't worried about cruising at all until the recent report about the ship holding passengers. We own a business, so taking that much time off of work could be devastating. We have pets that would have to be put into boarding. The costs of not being home would easily turn into tens of thousands of dollars for us. We are only taking a weekend cruise because we can't afford to be gone longer than that. I can't imagine what it would be like if we were stuck on the ship for a couple weeks.

 

[Lisa F]

Same.
I've gotten sick from the flu 2-3 times after returning from DCL cruises in the past, got it from either the ship or the airplane..Between business trips and holidays I fly 10-15x a year and get sick with the flu once or twice. I already know there's a good chance I'll get it even though I get the flu shot every year. I know its a price I may pay for traveling so often. And I'm OK with it, I don't go into panic mode bc I know there's a treatment protocol if I get sick.

but this new virus scares me because there are so many unknowns...I have the same mindset as you in that authorities don't quarantine entire cities if its something that is "just like the flu"

the treatment protocols are the same as flu or any other similar respiratory virus

Most people will have mild symptoms that can be treated at home with rest and fluids

some will require more support - iv fluids, respiratory support if it turns into pneumonia and antibiotic support if an opportunistic bacterial infection takes hold... all of which are risks with the flu as well.

There is no tamiflu equivalent or vaccine equivalent (yet but they are working on it.) but even with both of those, the basic treatment protocol is the same for any respiratory virus - it's not the actual virus that usually ends up being the problem but pneumonia and other bacterial infections that are.

It is so scary in China because it is spreading quickly and has a very long incubation period with severe symptoms showing up more toward the end of the incubation period, they don't have the resources to treat everyone, which is leading to higher than flu death rates. In areas where they DO have the resources to treat everyone, death rates are very low (or not at all.) They are quarantining in China because they can more easily (totalitarian government), because they are super densely populated with questionable sanitation (there's a reason a lot of these novel viruses take hold in these areas to start with) and because they don't have the resources (beds/facilities/doctors) to treat people - combined with the long incubation period - they can't get a handle on it so they are quarantining in an attempt to.

 

[DisneYE]

the treatment protocols are the same as flu or any other similar respiratory virus

Most people will have mild symptoms that can be treated at home with rest and fluids

some will require more support - iv fluids, respiratory support if it turns into pneumonia and antibiotic support if an opportunistic bacterial infection takes hold... all of which are risks with the flu as well.

There is no tamiflu equivalent or vaccine equivalent (yet but they are working on it.) but even with both of those, the basic treatment protocol is the same for any respiratory virus - it's not the actual virus that usually ends up being the problem but pneumonia and other bacterial infections that are.

It is so scary in China because it is spreading quickly and has a very long incubation period with severe symptoms showing up more toward the end of the incubation period, they don't have the resources to treat everyone, which is leading to higher than flu death rates. In areas where they DO have the resources to treat everyone, death rates are very low (or not at all.) They are quarantining in China because they can more easily (totalitarian government), because they are super densely populated with questionable sanitation (there's a reason a lot of these novel viruses take hold in these areas to start with) and because they don't have the resources (beds/facilities/doctors) to treat people - combined with the long incubation period - they can't get a handle on it so they are quarantining in an attempt to.

Correct.
What I meant by no treatment protocol is there is no effective antibiotic/antiviral yet to combat it. When you get the flu you know you'll be prescribed tamiflu or other antibiotic and that puts ppl at ease knowing they'll likely be cured after a few days if the symptoms are not severe.
You wrote a very good analysis of the situation.

 

[Lisa F]

Correct.
What I meant by no treatment protocol is there is no effective antibiotic/antiviral yet to combat it. When you get the flu you know you'll be prescribed tamiflu or other antibiotic and that puts ppl at ease knowing they'll likely be cured after a few days if the symptoms are not severe.
You wrote a very good analysis of the situation.

yet with that you can still die from the flu and keep in mind even without a coronavirus antiviral, the death rate in areas where they are not overrun by patients is no higher than the flu. As of right now you are in an area that is not overrun by coronavirus cases. So yes it may FEEL more scary but it's not really any different for us here in the US than flu at the moment. You are far more likely to contract flu and just as likely to die from complications from flu as coronavirus.

I would not want to be in Asia right now, but here in the US the sky is not falling.

 

[AquaDame]

This thread has run its course - there are too many unknowns to make even educated guesses at this point and it is all conjecture. Please join the thread about the quarantined ship if you wish to discuss how to deal with the disease outbreak further.