I book where I *want* to stay, and plan on discount codes to bring the price down to what I'm willing to pay. Then, if there is no discount for that particular resort, then I'll switch to a different resort that *does* have a discount available.
That's exactly what happened for our upcoming Nov./Dec. trip; I had booked Poly GV concierge, but couldn't get an AP rate there, so now we have a split stay--Dolphin 1 nite (spg points), then FW Cabin 4 nites (AP rate) and 2 rooms at POR for 4 nites (AP rate).
If there are no onsite discounts to be had at all, then it's offsite for me--at a discount, of course (thru skyauction, hotelkingdom, etc.)- I refuse to pay rack rates.