Disney's Long Term DVC Strategy

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I think there is plenty of interest for a DCL/DVC product. I'm not a lawyer, but the logistics of dealing with a moving asset, extensive maintenance schedules, international laws, etc. might make it complicated.

I think (from Disney’s perspective) they already have things covered— they can let owners use their points (at a terrible conversion rate) to cruise when they want— they also sell a member cruise at extremely high prices, not sure they want to undercut either by introducing a better (for owners) DVC Cruise product. If anything, I think they’d expand to a second (shorter?) member cruise to fill cabins during slow seasons.

 

[Genie+]

Longterm I think DVC will:

Continue their efforts to differentiate resale and direct. Resale points are all now restricted one way or another.

Blue card perks will continue evolving in ways that more precisely tie to type of points used and level of engagement. The more frequently direct points are used and the more areas spending occurs, the more opportunities to access the best of DVC perks.

Because I also think their moves are all aligning with the eventuality of point washing.

Over the last decade:

2016 - Resale restricted from blue card

2019 - Resale restricted from trading into all other resorts

Post 2020 - rofr activity diminished

2023/2024/2025 - Changes made to Moonlight Magic to improve control of distribution

2024/2025 - Welcome Home Weeks added

2025 - MMB added

2026 - $500 CAF added to resale purchases

UK people are probably familiar with slowly, slowly, catchey monkey. The monkey here is selling the conversion to direct. It’s almost like they can pull something else to sell out of thin air. Instead of only selling contracts they could also start selling the difference between resale and direct to existing resale owners.

It makes me wonder about adding on. In 10 years how much will it matter if half my points are resale? Will I end up wanting to be full direct and willing to pay to make that happen? Would it be cheaper to buy direct today than buying resale today and point wash later? My guess is: Probably, very likely, and yes lol.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It makes me wonder about adding on. In 10 years how much will it matter if half my points are resale? Will I end up wanting to be full direct and willing to pay to make that happen? Would it be cheaper to buy direct today than buying resale today and point wash later? My guess is: Probably, very likely, and yes lol.

Agree with you on longer term strategy.

Point washing must be very expensive if it’s cheaper to buy direct today when there’s often a $40+ gap between direct and resale.

I personally don’t have a need for more points amid all the uncertainty (both DVC’s, economy generally, and my own schedule uncertainty!) and difficulty getting rooms I want when I want to travel. With my kids at peak school/sports activity age, it’s hard to book 11mo out and it’s a lot of work to try to find good rooms on shorter notice…but if I was buying, I still don’t think I can justify more than $25 between direct and resale, as I already have 2x the points I need for Y-card membership… but if I needed 25-50 points more to reach “tier 2 y-card” perks, I’d be pulling that trigger pretty fast.

(Edited to add: assuming T2 perks was something like guaranteed MM entry or an extra special DVC Elite event I really wanted to add…not getting more points for current MMB level perks)

 

[Carouselofplanning]

So much "I said and it sounds cool it so it must be true" on threads like this, lol.

You don’t think they are going to build a Skyliner?

 

[muppets3d]

You don’t think they are going to build a Skyliner?

No I wasn't talking about that lol but that would be a good idea! Honestly they should have built a people mover along the dock leading to Lookout Cay.

 

[juliebee]

It makes me wonder about adding on. In 10 years how much will it matter if half my points are resale? Will I end up wanting to be full direct and willing to pay to make that happen? Would it be cheaper to buy direct today than buying resale today and point wash later? My guess is: Probably, very likely, and yes lol.

I'm thinking you might be right on that. I would like to hope that point washing would be in the $25/pt amount, but I think it's much more likely to be in the $50+/pt range, if it's ever offered at all.