What are the chances? (Specific Accommodations at 11 mths and 7 mths)

[disneymath]

So ... I've worked the numbers and it seems that we could break even on DVC within 6 - 10 years (assuming we travel about every 2 years but depending on how many points we buy in with). I'm trying to get my head around the points we would need. I don't think 160 is going to do it, but 180 just might.

The first question of the day is, how hard do you predict it will be to secure a week at BLT in a Standard View 2BR + a Standard View Studio assuming we can book at 11 months and would be travelling within the last two weeks in August (Dream Season) or first two weeks in December (Choice Season).

The second question of the day is, how hard generally is it to secure the followng accommodations for a week (7 nights) at the 7 month window assuming we would be travelling within the last two weeks in August (Dream Season) or first two weeks in December (Choice Season).

WLV 2BR + Studio
BC 2BR + Studio
AKV 2BR + Studio (standard view)
OKW Grand Villa
SSR Treehouse

(I'm assuming it is relatively easy to secure a 2BR + Studio at either OKW or SSR at the 7 month window for these time frames, but correct me if I'm wrong.)

Oh, one last question ... totally off topic ... do you think DVC would let me split an initial buy-in of 180 points into 3 60 pt contracts. (I have three very young nephews who I would like to be able to pass on the magic to down the road.)

Thanks in advance for any insight!

 

[disneynutz]

Buy where you love to stay at 11 months.

Disney for 2010 and 2011 have changed the point allocations and there is no guarantee that they won't do it again in the future so you may be short points.

As more members join the DVC, it is getting harder to get reservations at 7 months for some resorts.

Smaller contracts usually have a better resale value. Don't expect your family to embrace your love for Disney and in some cases, they could feel that you giving them your contract has forced them to pay dues for something that they don't want.

Bill

 

[DebbieB]

The first 2 weeks of December is adventure season. Although it's the lowest point season, it's very popular with DVC members.

 

[disneynutz]

The first 2 weeks of December is adventure season. Although it's the lowest point season, it's very popular with DVC members.

It may be the lowest today, but it might not be tomorrow.

Bill

 

[Dean]

So ... I've worked the numbers and it seems that we could break even on DVC within 6 - 10 years (assuming we travel about every 2 years but depending on how many points we buy in with). I'm trying to get my head around the points we would need. I don't think 160 is going to do it, but 180 just might.

The first question of the day is, how hard do you predict it will be to secure a week at BLT in a Standard View 2BR + a Standard View Studio assuming we can book at 11 months and would be travelling within the last two weeks in August (Dream Season) or first two weeks in December (Choice Season).

The second question of the day is, how hard generally is it to secure the followng accommodations for a week (7 nights) at the 7 month window assuming we would be travelling within the last two weeks in August (Dream Season) or first two weeks in December (Choice Season).

WLV 2BR + Studio
BC 2BR + Studio
AKV 2BR + Studio (standard view)
OKW Grand Villa
SSR Treehouse

(I'm assuming it is relatively easy to secure a 2BR + Studio at either OKW or SSR at the 7 month window for these time frames, but correct me if I'm wrong.)

Oh, one last question ... totally off topic ... do you think DVC would let me split an initial buy-in of 180 points into 3 60 pt contracts. (I have three very young nephews who I would like to be able to pass on the magic to down the road.)

Thanks in advance for any insight!

I would not expect any problems with your requests for the last of August if you book day 1 when member services opens other than possibly the GV at OKW and THV, even then I'd say you have a good chance, esp if you wait list. For early December at 7 months out, I think you'll have problems with most of what you list other than the studios though some will be far more difficult than others. What's best for you depends totally on how often you'll want each. Your post suggests that budget is a large part of your equation, if so, you may be better off looking at SSR or an extended OKW contract resale and taking your chances at the 7 month window and possibly buying a few more points to give you a cushion since adventure season IS likely to increase for early Dec at some point. I wouldn't go into this plan for under 200 points unless you just find the perfect contract otherwise including price and points availability. I will say though that if you can get a loaded contract at a good price, it will take you a few years for any points deficit to catch up with you.

I think you need to decide what's most important to you and which of those reservations is core or which you'll use the most. I'd only buy the higher price options if you'll use one most trips. There are other ways to get financing if that is an issue.

 

[Sandisw]

I think that Disney will allow new buyers to break up the contracts, however, it seems, from everything that I have read, that the first one needs to be at least 100.

As far as deciding on where to buy and how many points. I would definitely give yourself a cushion, especially with BLT. If it were me, I would be planning for LV (the bulk of the resort) and go from there. At least this way, if SV is not available, you will still be covered.

As others have said, the beginning of Dec is a very popular DVC time and getting a trade out at 7 months can be hit or miss. That is why I would buy at the place I would most happy staying during those time frames if nothing else comes through.

We go in August (am a teacher) and I had no problem getting both a SV studio and 1 bedroom at the 11 month mark for early August 2010. I do think that if you call right at that 11 month mark, getting the SV @ BLT should be doable.

Of course, since BLT is still selling, no one knows for sure how availability will be once the resort is sold. I can say that everything that I have read leads me to believe that SV will be the hardest to get, unless you own there, and even then, depending on what you are looking for, tough.

I do think that you will find it easier to trade out at 7 months for the August trips than the Dec trips.

As PP said, if BLT is not the place you really want to be most of the time, then I might consider some of the resale contracts (if you are okay with other resorts) as this could allow you to get more points for less.

We paid a lot more for BLT, because that is where we want to be, unless it is our own choice. Being at the others would not have done it for us, so the extra $5000 we spent was worth it (we own 180 points).

Good luck!

 

[DenLo]

So ... I've worked the numbers and it seems that we could break even on DVC within 6 - 10 years (assuming we travel about every 2 years but depending on how many points we buy in with). I'm trying to get my head around the points we would need. I don't think 160 is going to do it, but 180 just might.

The first question of the day is, how hard do you predict it will be to secure a week at BLT in a Standard View 2BR + a Standard View Studio assuming we can book at 11 months and would be travelling within the last two weeks in August (Dream Season) or first two weeks in December (Choice Season).

Since BLT is not sold out, only 46% of the points have been sold and 62% of the inventory has been declared, there is a greater chance of getting a room at the 7 month mark. However as more points are being sold it will be harder to get into BLT at popular times. Which would be December. As far as a STD studio, in August, you should have a higher chance of getting your choice at BLT at the 7th month mark. However that view is the first of the villas to be completely reserved by BLT owners at the 11 month mark. And since there are fewer STD view villas than LV or MK (only 20%) that really lowers your chances. I would say in December you probably would not get a STD view BLT villa (you could always wait list and hope someone cancels their reservation).

So I guess what I'm saying if you really want to stay at BLT buy BLT points.

The second question of the day is, how hard generally is it to secure the followng accommodations for a week (7 nights) at the 7 month window assuming we would be travelling within the last two weeks in August (Dream Season) or first two weeks in December (Choice Season).

WLV 2BR + Studio
BC 2BR + Studio
AKV 2BR + Studio (standard view)
OKW Grand Villa
SSR Treehouse - they have only declared half of the inventory on the THVs so it is really difficult to get these rooms except at the 11 month mark. Impossible at the 7 month during December.

(I'm assuming it is relatively easy to secure a 2BR + Studio at either OKW or SSR at the 7 month window for these time frames, but correct me if I'm wrong.)

Oh, one last question ... totally off topic ... do you think DVC would let me split an initial buy-in of 180 points into 3 60 pt contracts. (I have three very young nephews who I would like to be able to pass on the magic to down the road.)
Yes most definitely since your total number of points is equal or greater than the minimum number of points for an initial contract. And later if your nephews decide they don't want to pay the MFs, they can always sell the contracts on the resale market.


Thanks in advance for any insight!

There is a DVC thread that DISboard members voluntarily post when they are unable to get a villa. For first week and more of December 2010, BLT STD view villas are already being reported as not available. At VWL the 1BRs are currently being reported on several dates as being unavailable. Ditto for the THVs. And the 7 month mark doesn't begin until May!

http://www.disboards.com/forumdisplay.php?f=168

I don't know the answer for all of the resorts you listed, so hopefully others will comment.

 

[disneymath]

Buy where you love to stay at 11 months.

<snip>

Smaller contracts usually have a better resale value. Don't expect your family to embrace your love for Disney and in some cases, they could feel that you giving them your contract has forced them to pay dues for something that they don't want.

Bill

I agree with your idea of buying where we would want to stay ... this is why we are going to stay at BLT before purchasing there. The purpose of asking about other resorts at the 7 month window was to try to get an idea of how easy (or not) it would be to switch up resorts every now and again.

I appreciate your caution about not forcing my contracts on my nephews ... it just seemed like a smart thing to do up front in case they would be interested in them down the road. And as others have indicated it seems to be easier to sell off smaller contracts if I decide to go that route.

The first 2 weeks of December is adventure season. Although it's the lowest point season, it's very popular with DVC members.

Thanks for clarifying my season mix-up. Our trips in early December (at least for the next 25+ years until I retire) would be few and far between so it's not such a concern that we might not be able to get "in-demand" accommodation at a "non-home" resort at this time of year.

I would not expect any problems with your requests for the last of August if you book day 1 when member services opens other than possibly the GV at OKW and THV, even then I'd say you have a good chance, esp if you wait list. For early December at 7 months out, I think you'll have problems with most of what you list other than the studios though some will be far more difficult than others.

<snip>

I think you need to decide what's most important to you and which of those reservations is core or which you'll use the most. I'd only buy the higher price options if you'll use one most trips. There are other ways to get financing if that is an issue.

Dean, thank you for your response. Late August is when we will be doing the bulk of our travelling for the forseeable future. With 3 little ones traveling with us, I can see BLT being a big draw for at least the next decade or so, but there may times when we want and a change of pace - the options I listed were the ones that I could see us wanting to try some day. It's reassuirng to know, at least based on current trends, that we should have options for that time of year at the 7 month window.

I have no desire to finance this purchase ... so my budget is based on what I can comfortably spend up front. (I can always add on down the road if need be.)

I think that Disney will allow new buyers to break up the contracts, however, it seems, from everything that I have read, that the first one needs to be at least 100.

As far as deciding on where to buy and how many points. I would definitely give yourself a cushion, especially with BLT. If it were me, I would be planning for LV (the bulk of the resort) and go from there. At least this way, if SV is not available, you will still be covered.

<snip>

Of course, since BLT is still selling, no one knows for sure how availability will be once the resort is sold. I can say that everything that I have read leads me to believe that SV will be the hardest to get, unless you own there, and even then, depending on what you are looking for, tough.

<snip>

As PP said, if BLT is not the place you really want to be most of the time, then I might consider some of the resale contracts (if you are okay with other resorts) as this could allow you to get more points for less.

We paid a lot more for BLT, because that is where we want to be, unless it is our own choice. Being at the others would not have done it for us, so the extra $5000 we spent was worth it (we own 180 points).

Good luck!

I guess all I can is ask about 3 60pt contracts if / when I go through with a purchse.

I understand your logic about planning for LV ... but I gues I was coming at it from a different perspective. If I plan for BLT SV in late August, there are a number of other options that cost (using 2011 point charts) about the same number of points at other resorts. As long as there is a decent shot at some of these places (OKWGV and SSRTH excluded) then I would be happy buying in with enough points to do BLT SV every other year. Planning at the start of the 11 month (or 7 month) window should not be an issue.

We are staying at BLT this summer ... if we like it, this would be the resort I would buy into. If we don't like it, I could see looking into a VWL resale. I can't see us wanting OKW or SSR (or even AKV) as our home resort as they seem too far removed and we have always relied on Disney transportation.

Quote from DenLo: "Yes most definitely since your total number of points is equal or greater than the minimum number of points for an initial contract. And later if your nephews decide they don't want to pay the MFs, they can always sell the contracts on the resale market."

I hope this is true ... and you have the same idea as I do if the nephews don't want the contracts down the road.

 

[jmkjr72]

well at 11 months out you should be able to get the grand villa at okw and 7 months its a diffrent story

 

[disneymath]

well at 11 months out you should be able to get the grand villa at okw and 7 months its a diffrent story

I kind of figured this would be the case ... particularly in December.

A GV might be nice to try some day (assuming we had the points to make it doable) - this is why I inquired about OKW as their GVs seem to have the lowest point costs.

That said, a GV is definitely not something we would want/need for every (or any) trip. For us, what BLT/VWL/BC offer in terms of location/amenities would outweigh the oppotunity to book a GV at OKW (or even SSR) at 11 months.

 

[Dean]

I kind of figured this would be the case ... particularly in December.

A GV might be nice to try some day (assuming we had the points to make it doable) - this is why I inquired about OKW as their GVs seem to have the lowest point costs.

That said, a GV is definitely not something we would want/need for every (or any) trip. For us, what BLT/VWL/BC offer in terms of location/amenities would outweigh the oppotunity to book a GV at OKW (or even SSR) at 11 months.

Normally a 2 BR plus a studio is cheaper and has other advantages. Still, the GV are amazing.