What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[Karin1984]

Maybe late June but early June is looking pretty grim right now. It takes a while to wind down an airline and it takes just as much time to wind it back up. Considering many airlines have already shattered their May schedules as much as their April schedules, I'd say it's highly optimistic to think they'll be back to normal in June. People have to be willing to go outside first and then the willingness to travel beyond the grocery store will follow. And further defining normal...actual pre-COVID traffic levels will probably be at least a year or two away to full recovery for demand. Many airlines have already sent plenty to the desert to be scrapped. They're all going to be smaller airlines when they are fully running again.

I must say, I am in Europe, not the US. And I'm quite sure the expert was talking about a new normal, as in smaller airlines. My airline still flies about 10% of their flight, to only a handful of destinations. For example, at the moment it's Amsterdam - London once a day, instead of 10 times a day. I think everything to/from the US is served by Delta.
I do believe that by June (probably more mid june) this will get scaled up to more destinations and more frequently. Normal as in the flight schedule pre-covid, my guess would be late 2020, early 2021. I think each airline will take this opportunity to look if they want to keep all the routes they were flying and maybe get rid of those which weren't profitable.

 

[Evin321]

The topic of this thread is “prediction for normal travel” in regards to cruising, not when will normal life begin. in other words, cruising and the global economy aren’t the same thing. Let me also condition what I’m saying by emphasizing that I’m a 2 time cruiser with another planned in August.

I fully expect people will begin working again and going about there daily lives sometime in May, especially when testing becomes much more robust. These activities, however, will have limitations in size of gatherings, ie keep numbers under 25 or so. That way if an outbreak occurs locally, appropriate quarantine measures can occur. This is called containment and our ‘new normal.’

Containment works locally, not when tens of thousands of guest are crammed together in the setting a floating Petri dish cruise or mass gathering such as Disney world, etc and then travel back to their town or country of origin only to infect those areas. An individual may not worry about these risks but the government sure as heck does. Therefore, these types of gatherings cannot occur until a vaccine is available or herd immunity is established which certainly will take longer than this summer, unfortunately.

 

[lunaland]

I agree with everything you said. Just to add hospital admissions for COVID have been way below what was predicted. Most states are not overwhelmed. I have a feeling the death rate from this will also be much lower than predicted. I think if this goes on much longer will have more suicides than COVID deaths.
I work at a hospital that is normally at 100% capacity this time of year and we are at about 50%. Where are all the people that need medical treatment that don't have COVID? I'm not talking about just the elective surgeries. Where are all our Chest pain and stroke patients? Some of us wonder if people are just going to die in their homes because they are afraid to come to the hospital. We only have about 500 people in our state hospitalized with COVID. We have a population of 7 million.

I just don't see how this goes on past April 30. People are going to lose their minds along with everything else. I have a job and I feel constantly stressed out. I felt a little nervous after 2008, but nothing like now. I'm never been so scared about the future in my life. I could care less about the virus.

My Mom, a mostly healthy 64 year old (she has high blood pressure controlled well by medication) flat out told me to let her die in her house if she were to suffer a heart attack/etc rather than take her to the hospital. She says it's not worth getting saved in the hospital just to die of corona virus. I disagree, a lot, with that plan, but she is serious.

 

[dvcgirl67]

United has pushed out their credits for cancelled flights to two years from when they were issued to be rebooked, and then another 11 months to actually fly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246523956691111937

They are signaling that it's very possible it's going to take at least 12-18 months for things to get to normal, because you may be able to use your credits from cancellations last month to fly in February 2023.

Yup, not surprising. United is also signaling that they'll do anything they can to hold onto your money by offering rebooking that far out, as opposed to returning your money. The airlines are bleeding cash like crazy and pulling out all stops to survive.

 

[dvcgirl67]

The topic of this thread is “prediction for normal travel” in regards to cruising, not when will normal life begin. in other words, cruising and the global economy aren’t the same thing. Let me also condition what I’m saying by emphasizing that I’m a 2 time cruiser with another planned in August.

I fully expect people will begin working again and going about there daily lives sometime in May, especially when testing becomes much more robust. These activities, however, will have limitations in size of gatherings, ie keep numbers under 25 or so. That way if an outbreak occurs locally, appropriate quarantine measures can occur. This is called containment and our ‘new normal.’

Containment works locally, not when tens of thousands of guest are crammed together in the setting a floating Petri dish cruise or mass gathering such as Disney world, etc and then travel back to their town or country of origin only to infect those areas. An individual may not worry about these risks but the government sure as heck does. Therefore, these types of gatherings cannot occur until a vaccine is available or herd immunity is established which certainly will take longer than this summer, unfortunately.

I concur with everything you're saying. And that's why thinking about the impact that this will have on Disney is heartbreaking. Every single element of visiting Walt Disney World is not built for a "social distancing" situation in the middle of a pandemic. From crowded experiences on Magical Express, to Disney buses, ferries and monorails. To massive crowds at the turnstiles looking to rope drop. To massive crowds for parades, shows and fireworks of all kinds. To crowded food courts and restaurants. To long lines and then crowded closed spaces to enter attractions. Think about the pools at the resorts alone. You can have a situation with lots of asymtomatic spreaders, in pools, getting out of pools drying off with towels, then left on chairs....shedding virus. It's an absolute recipe for disaster until there is a vaccine. And like I said...an absolute heartbreaker.

 

[jlwhitney]

I concur with everything you're saying. And that's why thinking about the impact that this will have on Disney is heartbreaking. Every single element of visiting Walt Disney World is not built for a "social distancing" situation in the middle of a pandemic. From crowded experiences on Magical Express, to Disney buses, ferries and monorails. To massive crowds at the turnstiles looking to rope drop. To massive crowds for parades, shows and fireworks of all kinds. To crowded food courts and restaurants. To long lines and then crowded closed spaces to enter attractions. Think about the pools at the resorts alone. You can have a situation with lots of asymtomatic spreaders, in pools, getting out of pools drying off with towels, then left on chairs....shedding virus. It's an absolute recipe for disaster until there is a vaccine. And like I said...an absolute heartbreaker.

At this point, there are too many scenarios that can still play out in the next month or two that can change alot. The concept of waiting for a vaccine shouldn't be the goal to live. There is no gty one will even work, it could mutate enough to set them back in one, and I am not sure why anyone would want to run out and get a rushed vaccine. Vaccines usually take years to come out so to be sure they are as safe and effective, and this is coming from someone that gets all the vaccines for my kids except flu.

 

[MomOTwins]

At this point, there are too many scenarios that can still play out in the next month or two that can change alot. The concept of waiting for a vaccine shouldn't be the goal to live. There is no gty one will even work, it could mutate enough to set them back in one, and I am not sure why anyone would want to run out and get a rushed vaccine. Vaccines usually take years to come out so to be sure they are as safe and effective, and this is coming from someone that gets all the vaccines for my kids except flu.

The other thing to consider is antibodies in people who have been infected (either asymtomatic or symptomatic and recovered) are nature's vaccine. What is making this virus so fast-spreading now is that is new, so there is no herd immunity. Antibody tests will give a lot of people confidence to travel.

 

[jlwhitney]

The other thing to consider is antibodies in people who have been infected (either asymtomatic or symptomatic and recovered) are nature's vaccine. What is making this virus so fast-spreading now is that is new, so there is no herd immunity. Antibody tests will give a lot of people confidence to travel.

I agree antibody testing, and more treatment research will help us much quicker and potentially be better.

 

[jlwhitney]

Also better understanding of the virus, there is a lot of conflicting information passing around.

 

[dvcgirl67]

The other thing to consider is antibodies in people who have been infected (either asymtomatic or symptomatic and recovered) are nature's vaccine. What is making this virus so fast-spreading now is that is new, so there is no herd immunity. Antibody tests will give a lot of people confidence to travel.

Yes, we need massive testing for positive cases, and then antigen testing. But there is still so much we don't know about this virus. There's a study out of China yesterday that looked at recovered COVID-19 patients (small study, not yet peer reviewed), that is concerning. Here's the gist of it.

"Researchers in Shanghai hope to determine whether some recovered coronavirus patients have a higher risk of reinfection after finding surprisingly low levels of Covid-19 antibodies in a number of people discharged from hospital.
A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies.
In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.
“Whether these patients were at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies,” the team wrote in preliminary research released on Monday on Medrxiv.org, an online platform for preprint papers.

Although the study was preliminary and not peer-reviewed, it was the world’s first systematic examination of antibody levels in patients who had recovered from Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, the researchers said."

So...does this mean that possibly 1/3 of recovered coronavirus patients don't generate enough antibodies in their system to acquire immunity? Can they then be re-infected and then spread the virus again?

These are all huge, huge questions that we simply don't have the answers to right now. Massive testing and a therapeutic treatment seem to be what will allow us to function in the short to medium term. And we need that....like yesterday.

 

[monkeydawn]

There is also no guarantee that there is immunity after you recover. And even asymptomatic carriers have significant lung damage.

These two things. I swear I want to scream them on a constant loop because people are acting like it will be a good thing to get it.

There is no guarantee that you wont get reinfected with the same strain and we are too deep in triage mode to even do much of any research into longer term implications. We have no idea how fast this is mutating and what that means other than there have been at least three uniquely identifiable strains. We also have no idea of the long term lung and cardiac implications on the body. Say you get it once and you are immune to that single strain. What happens if you are already weakened due to permanent lung and heart scarring from bout #1 and you pick up a different strain? Or a common cold? Or the flu?

Wouldn't people need to be re-checked every time they got off the ship? Especially on long cruises.

A virus/bug could be picked up during a port stop and not manifest itself until just prior to the end of the cruise.

Do we deny re-boarding (in a port of call) if someone who was "healthy" at the beginning of the cruise now tests positive?

Maybe it will be mandatory that every passenger ship have a special COVID quarantine area, size dependent on ship size? Id want to see some sort of separate air filtration for that area. Given what we saw with the Grand Princess and now the WHO/ CDC walking back on how aerosolized the spread can be, I'd be hesitant to travel (without a cure) on the same ventilation system as known infected passengers.

 

[brentm77]

That 3,700/day auto accidents is a worldwide number. US auto accidents average 104 per day.

I never stated or implied the number was a U.S. number. I didn't even compare it to U.S. deaths. It remains a very high figure that would scare everyone if reported daily, along with the horrific circumstances of many of the crashes.

To put that in perspective in a month’s time US covid deaths have equaled 4 months of auto accidents already, and every model has us exceeding 38k Covid deaths.

For whatever reason people like to compare covid to car deaths, but in the US covid deaths will exceed total auto deaths this year.

Nobody said the deaths would be directly comparable. The point is that we accept death as a risk for improved quality of life daily. When people post that we shouldn't shutdown the economy for months on end to fight the virus, the usual reply is that avoiding death is the only consideration. But that simply isn't how society has operated, ever. We accept the risk of death in order to have a better quality of life. The car crash example is raised because it is a good example of where we have accepted very high risk for the benefit. But we do it in so many other areas too. The proper analysis has not been done to determine if a global economic collapse outweighs the potential deaths from the virus.

If this raged unchecked the estimates of death were 2 million Americans, double the normal annual deaths. Without any other factors that would have taken a huge toll on the economy.

But, you are implying a false dilemma fallacy. The choice isn't "everyone live their normal lives and 2 million lives will be lost versus complete isolation of nearly everyone for months on end." There is a middle ground where extreme preventative and treatment measures could be implemented, the sick quickly detected and isolated, but the economy continues to stay open. If that were done, there is no reason to believe we would hit that 2 million number. To be clear, I am not in denial about the seriousness of the virus, I am being realistic about what second "greater" depression looks like.

And, I don't think the recent comparison of the Spanish Flu and cities that isolated versus others that didn't is all that helpful. Are we seriously arguing that the economy in 1918 is similar enough to 2020 to expect the same results? Most developed nations are now consumer driven economies in ways that people would not have dreamed of in 1918. You turn off that engine and it isn't going to just start right back up. There will be cascading effects for years to come if this is our long term solution.

Also, for every job lost, there are other job opportunities. The medical field will be understaffed (not just medical personnel, but medical manufacturing). Shipping and logistic industries will also be understaffed. Tourism will take a big hit. I think the fact that the cruise ships have been treated so horribly will be a huge red flag for people for a while.

I am sorry, but this is wishful thinking. There is zero chance that an increase in some areas of the economy related to the virus is going to offset the millions upon millions of people who lose their jobs or have their pay cut. Or the thousands of small businesses that already have or will go bankrupt.

Back to the topic of the post, I don't think things will return to normal any time soon because of our all or nothing approach. When we finally reopen, will we just shut down when the virus inevitably spreads again? Unless we truly just shut down for a year or more, we are going to have to face this virus one way or another. And, millions of people who previously could afford leisure travel won't be able to for many years to come due to how we have handled this virus. I do not think it is an exaggeration that the economic impact will dwarf the harm from the virus in the long term. That could be changed if we started opening businesses soon with protective measures in place, while simultaneously ensuring we have enough temporary hospital beds and ventilators.

Cruising is a unique area that may need to be closed longer than most, even if we open things up again. But I think theme parks could open sooner with mandatory face masks, and hand washing/sanitizer stations, limits on attendance, and line spacing or the like.

 

[Karin1984]

I agree antibody testing, and more treatment research will help us much quicker and potentially be better.

The other thing to consider is antibodies in people who have been infected (either asymtomatic or symptomatic and recovered) are nature's vaccine. What is making this virus so fast-spreading now is that is new, so there is no herd immunity. Antibody tests will give a lot of people confidence to travel.

Early tests here in the Netherlands indicate that people who have experienced mild symptoms have less antibodies and are therefore probably less protected when/if the disease returns to a country. People who got hit hard by Covid, but survived are better protected.

 

[monkeydawn]

I'd feel better about opening things up sooner rather than later if the current "essential" businesses were better regulated with respect to safe patronizing. A local example, Walmart has closed all but one entrance. Everyone is funneling through there. There is no attempt for people to distance at the one entrance/ exit. About half the people were wearing face coverings (not proven effective, data seems to show the opposite). Those wearing masks seemed to not be observing distancing much more than those that were not in masks. Allegedly there is a restriction on how many people may enter but it seemed as crowded as a typical weekend afternoon there last weekend. To add an extra fun level they decided to block off the additional entrances with carts roped together. That would have been deadly in an emergency.

I know this is new and its a dream to expect some sort of oversight but it just feels like letting everyone individually decide what is best is giving us a hodge podge of decent, bad and horrid. At least with the limited amount of stuff I am seeing here. Maybe it's better elsewhere.

Cruising is a unique area that may need to be closed longer than most, even if we open things up again. But I think theme parks could open sooner with mandatory face masks, and hand washing/sanitizer stations, limits on attendance, and line spacing or the like.

Depending on what the "safe" occupancy levels are it might not be profitable for DW and DL (and the like) to even open. Right now stores around here are supposed to be letting in 20% of max capacity at any one time. I cant imagine that Disney or other theme parks would turn a profit at that occupancy rate. I wonder what the % max occupancy is for places like that to be profitable?

Early tests here in the Netherlands indicate that people who have experienced mild symptoms have less antibodies and are therefore probably less protected when/if the disease returns to a country. People who got hit hard by Covid, but survived are better protected.

Thanks, that is interesting. Do you by any chance have links to this? I am always looking for new research based articles.

 

[Karin1984]

Thanks, that is interesting. Do you by any chance have links to this? I am always looking for new research based articles.

Sorry, it was today on (Dutch) television during the public updates my government gets from our CDC. I can't find any research articles yet. The study is done in cooperation with our national bloodbank. I think this page is the only thing I have now in English that explains what they are doing: https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/rivm-launches-study-on-coronavirus-herd-immunity

 

[smmco]

The topic of this thread is “prediction for normal travel” in regards to cruising, not when will normal life begin. in other words, cruising and the global economy aren’t the same thing. Let me also condition what I’m saying by emphasizing that I’m a 2 time cruiser with another planned in August.

I fully expect people will begin working again and going about there daily lives sometime in May, especially when testing becomes much more robust. These activities, however, will have limitations in size of gatherings, ie keep numbers under 25 or so. That way if an outbreak occurs locally, appropriate quarantine measures can occur. This is called containment and our ‘new normal.’

Containment works locally, not when tens of thousands of guest are crammed together in the setting a floating Petri dish cruise or mass gathering such as Disney world, etc and then travel back to their town or country of origin only to infect those areas. An individual may not worry about these risks but the government sure as heck does. Therefore, these types of gatherings cannot occur until a vaccine is available or herd immunity is established which certainly will take longer than this summer, unfortunately.

If you feel this way why are you planning a cruise in August?

 

[Snowwhyt]

So I just read on another site that some of changes from areas that are recov. One that I found concerning for my group.

“Many of the preventative measures Genting will be rolling out were put in place by cruise lines around the world in the days leading up to the suspension of cruising. These include mandatory temperature screenings (including infrared screening at the entrance to the gangway) and pre-boarding health declarations, as well as the requirement for all passengers over the age of 70 to provide a doctor's certificate that they are fit to travel.”

I just saw my doctor Friday and she told me I’m not allowed to work until after the pandemic is over, I wasn’t expecting her to say that! All though I thought she would tell me I could not work at the hospital for a few weeks because of my health issues I still wanted to help out in some way.
My parents are 77 I’m sure they will not get the certificate until after a vaccine is available. (Dad has a transplant and both have diabetes)

So if the above is true and that is what would be the new plan going forward. What do you believe would happen to my three reservations;
1) Royal Caribbean 3 day, Disney 4day,B2B January 2021?
2) Royal 7 day January 2022?
We have a party of five going on all three of those cruises. Disney cruise is the last week our OBB can be used. I was planning to ride it out. And I will up-to PIF day. But after??? I know the doctor certificate won’t come since a vaccine will not be available by then.

 

[Bleck]

I would expect and prepare for a fairly robust sheltering to continue until at least mid-June. See, for example, the remarks from the Air Force Chief of Staff today.

The goal is to be careful through the summer to avoid a second spike in October/November. While balancing more economic activity. US regional differences will lead to regional differences.

Leisure travel will remain low. Depending on our case numbers and policies, some borders may be closed to (or be more controlled with respect to) Americans. Masks in US will become much more common. Significant lasting improvement, other than through a robust vaccine, will only come with 1) broad testing and contact tracing (see HK and Singapore as cases are creeping back up there) once case numbers get low enough or 2) natural herd immunity (if antibodies are robust enough).

Any significantly different answer is politics, ignorance, fear or recklessness. This crisis will be assessed and won by science and facts. There is no army to beat, ideal to raise, or rhetorical argument to win. Nature does what nature does.

 

[Snowwhyt]

I would expect and prepare for a fairly robust sheltering to continue until at least mid-June. See, for example, the remarks from the Air Force Chief of Staff today.

The goal is to be careful through the summer to avoid a second spike in October/November. While balancing more economic activity. US regional differences will lead to regional differences.

Leisure travel will remain low. Depending on our case numbers and policies, some borders may be closed to (or be more controlled with respect to) Americans. Masks in US will become much more common. Significant lasting improvement, other than through a robust vaccine, will only come with 1) broad testing and contact tracing (see HK and Singapore as cases are creeping back up there) once case numbers get low enough or 2) natural herd immunity (if antibodies are robust enough).

Any significantly different answer is politics, ignorance, fear or recklessness. This crisis will be assessed and won by science and facts. There is no army to beat, ideal to raise, or rhetorical argument to win. Nature does what nature does.

I believe this with all my heart. Although I am curious if you could for Forecast this for me? Dec 2020 and January 2021. Just an opinion that I could consider would be lovely.

 

[smmco]

I would expect and prepare for a fairly robust sheltering to continue until at least mid-June. See, for example, the remarks from the Air Force Chief of Staff today.

The goal is to be careful through the summer to avoid a second spike in October/November. While balancing more economic activity. US regional differences will lead to regional differences.

Leisure travel will remain low. Depending on our case numbers and policies, some borders may be closed to (or be more controlled with respect to) Americans. Masks in US will become much more common. Significant lasting improvement, other than through a robust vaccine, will only come with 1) broad testing and contact tracing (see HK and Singapore as cases are creeping back up there) once case numbers get low enough or 2) natural herd immunity (if antibodies are robust enough).

Any significantly different answer is politics, ignorance, fear or recklessness. This crisis will be assessed and won by science and facts. There is no army to beat, ideal to raise, or rhetorical argument to win. Nature does what nature does.

When did the airforce chief of staff start setting public policy. He also said he hoped the pandemic would lead to a sense of patriotism like after 9/11 and young people would join the military. I agree young people will join the military, but that’s because there’s no jobs.