Okay, took me awhile to finally post this. LOOOOONG Mathsy post incoming:
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I think the math here is most important, but you have to do it from the perspective of what you will
want to eat on your vacation, what you think you could afford out of pocket and then see where they numbers lie. I'll give you a 7 day 6 night example rundown with the
DDP (1 TS, 1 QS, 2 SNK):
Step 1: Pick the restaurants you want to go to during your trip.
For a 7 day, 6 night trip I'd spend 1 day in MK, AK, EPCOT, DHS and 1 day at Disney Springs. Counting arrival day, and my last day there would be kinda miscellaneous or departure. I decide preliminary if I want to eat 3 meals in a day, or what foods are must do. I don't worry about snacks at this point (most of the time if you are going to IFWF, its better to pay OOP for snacks and use the Snack Credits there).
Arrival Day:
Lunch/Dinner: Hotel Food Court
For MK Day:
Breakfast - Main Street Bakery
Lunch - BOG
Dinner - Skipper Canteen
For AK Day:
Breakfast - Creature Comforts
Lunch - Flame Tree BBQ
Dinner - Yak & Yeti
For EPCOT Day:
Breakfast - Akershus
Lunch - IFWF Booths
Dinner - Le Cellier
For DHS Day:
Breakfast - Woody's Lunchbox
Early Dinner - Hollywood Brown Derby Fantasmic! Package
For Disney Springs Day:
Breakfast - Hotel Food Court
Lunch - Morimoto Asia
Dinner - Wolfgang Puck Express
Departure Day:
Breakfast - Hotel Food Court
Step 2: Read each menu, find two "meals" you'd buy and average the costs to get your "estimated price".
Pretend you'd be eating their tonight. What would you get? For best results, remember that a meal can be any combination of things (aps, entree, sides, enhancements, drinks, alcoholic beverages etc...) don't limit yourself to simply what would be permissible with the Dining Plan. Write down the average price for each restaurant for yourself, and then multiply it by the number of people who will be eating (this is a crude estimate of your costs) DO NOT include tax or gratuity (these costs will have to be considered later as tax would be an included costs in the Dining Plan and Gratuity would be considered OOP. For my calculations, I tend to call them a near wash, and then just tack extra onto my totals at the end. For hotel food courts, I ended up picking 3 different food courts (a value, moderate and deluxe) and choosing two meals from each and averaging all of that. It's not perfect but it works.
Note: I am aware there are calculators available on the internet, however there calculations/prices seem to be off which leads me to believe the people who say they have not been updated for some time. YMMV.
Arrival Day:
Lunch/Dinner: Hotel Food Court: 20.35
For MK Day:
Breakfast - Main Street Bakery: 8.79
Lunch - BOG: 35.49
Dinner - Skipper Canteen: 51.00
For AK Day:
Breakfast - Creature Comforts - 8.79
Lunch - Flame Tree BBQ - 19.24
Dinner - Yak & Yeti - 58.47
For EPCOT Day:
Breakfast - Akershus: 48.00
Lunch - IFWF Booths: 48.00
Dinner - Le Cellier: 62.50
For DHS Day:
Breakfast - Woody's Lunchbox: 11.27
Early Dinner - Hollywood Brown Derby: 67.87
For Disney Springs Day:
Breakfast - Hotel Food Court: $14.41
Lunch - Morimoto Asia: 114.50
Dinner - Wolfgang Puck Express: 28.50
Departure Day:
Breakfast - Hotel Food Court - $14.41
Total Cost (Per Person): $591.24
Step 3: Find the "Cost" of the Dining Plan
If you are doing
free dining, subtract the cost of Room only discount package (normally 20-30% off rack rate) with the tickets you want from the cost of the free dining package you need.
So, as an example, My current stay at Coronado Springs (with Upgraded DDP - we will set aside DxDDP for now) is:
$3207.24
-$2435.76 <--- Cost of a Room/Ticket package w/ 25% discount on room only
_________
$771.48 Difference or "cost" of Free Dining (for two people)
Step 4: Compare the cost and Convenience
Now, your numbers may look different from mine, so I'll also show you a "per credit" breakdown but unfortunately with the DDP it is a little complicated.
However, in this step you simply take the estimated/averaged cost of food from your chosen restaurants, add about $25 for "taxes" and then compare that number to the "cost" of getting the Free Dining promotion (upgraded to DDP)
$616.24 pp = $1232.48
$1232.48 OOP Meal Cost (not including Gratuity)
-$0771.48 Cost of Free Dining Promo w/ Upgrade
__________
$0461.00 SAVINGS
As you can see in this instance, preliminarily, the Dining plan saves this family of two a fair chunk of change on all the food they might eat. If they ate less, the numbers might be less significant, but it is still a fair example. But now we have to find out what the DDP will pay for and what will still be OOP.
Step 5: Plug in your credits
Now you get to see how many credits you will use, and what might be an OOP expense. For simplicity (and we will cover it below) we will assume that the meals at each TS/QS are completely covered by a credit and we will include variance later.
Arrival Day:
Lunch/Dinner: Hotel Food Court - 1QS (5 Remain)
For MK Day:
Breakfast - Main Street Bakery - 1SNK (11 Remain) OOP $4.29
Lunch - BOG - 1 QS (4 Remain)
Dinner - Skipper Canteen - 1 TS (5 Remain)
For AK Day:
Breakfast - Creature Comforts - 1SNK (10 Remain) OOP $4.29
Lunch - Flame Tree BBQ - 1 QS (3 Remain)
Dinner - Yak & Yeti - 1 TS (4 Remain)
For EPCOT Day:
Breakfast - Akershus - 1 TS (3 Remain)
Lunch - IFWF Booths - 8 SNK (2 Remain)
Dinner - Le Cellier - 2 TS (1 Remain)
For DHS Day:
Breakfast - Woody's Lunchbox - 2SNK (0 Remain) OOP $4.25
Early Dinner - Hollywood Brown Derby Fantasmic! Package - OOP $67.87
For Disney Springs Day:
Breakfast - Hotel Food Court - 1 QS (2 Remain)
Lunch - Morimoto Asia - 1 TS (0 Remain)
Dinner - Wolfgang Puck Express - 1 QS (1 Remain)
Departure Day:
Breakfast - Hotel Food Court - 1 QS (0 Remain)
As you can see, there is one meal paid for OOP, along with a few items from breakfasts. To be more thorough, however, we now have to verify that the food we would choose out of pocket and the food we
can have on DDP match up. For me this is the most difficult part. Since some of the sides, enhancements and extras might not be included in your DDP, there is a margin of error for amounts you will have to pay out of pocket that vary depending on what you chose in your averages so...
Step 6: Realize that these estimates are very rough and gauge your comfort level with the results being off by $100 per individual.
After doing this a couple times, I am fairly confident that the average amount of variance for a week long stay is around $100. And, once you factor in the savings on snacks (which increase a LOT as you use snacks at the IFWF) that variance tends to wash. But if you want to be sure you are doing your due diligence, just apply a negative of $100 per individual to your savings to ensure your numbers are closer to accurate. Or you could go through and figure out what is covered and what you'd be paying out of pocket and get a closer to exact amount... your choice!
CURRENT SAVINGS: $0461.00 SAVINGS
SUBTRACT OOP: $0161.40
SUBTRACT VARIANCE:$0200.00
ACTUAL SAVINGS $0099.60
BOTTOM LINE: Using these examples, I was able to see that, at least roughly, the Dining plan could save me about $100 for 2 people. So that would make it a good deal. However, there are opportunity costs, potential dissatisfaction with the meal options and other variables to think about, but this step by step is a good base line for seeing if the DDP works for you.