Vivendi Universal vs Disny Corp is one weathering this storm better?

[YoHo]

Well, I hope this stays more civil then the last thread. I opened it anticipating that that one would be closed. I did a little searching and found some interesting Info that I wanted to share.

Vivendi's Cell phone group recently backed down from the French government on a Fee payment for the Wireless 3G technology. This is bad, because they claimed they didn't have the money in this slowing economy. Further I'm no financial expert. I'm a dunce in fact, but if you look at their 52 week low, compared to their current price and then looks at the DIS 52 week low compared to its current Price You see a very similar situation. Both are having an uptick since Sept 11, but are at near lows. As a matter of fact, aside from the higher stock price (which I'm not sure means much in this context) Vivendi and Disney have fairly parallel graphs.

With the current Telcom/Tech downfall, I wonder if Vivendi doesn't have as big a problem even though it is more Diverse then Disney.

 

[Captain Crook]

I would think that being primarily a foreign company, their concerns are exacerbated by world turmoil more than Disney...The fact that the most recent "world event" took place in America is what has hampered Disney. Therefore this current situation could be more tortureous to Disney but if events change (i.e. terroistic events elsewhere, none here, war on European soil, etc.) Disney would stand to become stronger quicker.

That being said, the primary business of Vivendi (Telecommunications) is a growing industry in any normal economy. I guess that means, will our (world wide) economy normalize, or not? I understand that most economists have now declared us in resession...

Your take on comparing Vivendi & Disney was right on, Yoho. Unless you (not you personally) can break down appropriate sectors you might as well compare GE & Disney (after all, they both own TV networks)...Your thougts?

 

[YoHo]

Telecommunications is a growth sector, but Having recently been working with a Telcom equipment supplier (with a lot invested in 3g technology) I know it is hitting a slowdown mainly, because a lot of startups that tanked. growth has been way down for a couple of quarters now (at least on the equipment side).

The European markets took a big dip right along with the U.S. Looking at the 52 week charts illustrates that Vivendi hit just as big a snag as Disney did, the only difference is that Disney was at a lower price to begin with.

A lower growth rate in addition to big fees from the French government are certainly hurting them.

I have a suspicion and it is not based on any facts, that Disney World will rebound quicker then Universal in the Vacation industry, simply because of Brand recognition. That kind of spike doesn't last long, but they probably have a slightly shorter rebound time.

 

[Kotar]

Halloween Horror Nights will help Universal Studios Florida with an extra 25,000 to 46,000 people per night, each night it's offered, with their admission, alchol consumption, food sales, and merchandise sales, add that to it's daily visitors, as well as more hotel bookings. So Universal will be able to get through the slow month of Nov. until X-Mas, and New Years when it'll see a surge in attendance again, followed by another couple of months of slow time,until Universal picks up again with their Mardi Gras month and a half long celebration, which also boosts admissions, alcohol sales, food sales, and merch sales. During both of Universal's celebrations, which have both proven highly profitable, Disney has nothing to help boost their attendance other than their 100 years celebration, which unfortunately for it, relies heavily on out of state tourists and the recent bombings have definately hurt out of state visitors attendance at all the parks. The Vivendi company as a whole might not bouce back quicker than the Disney company as a whole, but Universal Studios Florida is set to do better then Disney's parks.

 

[YoHo]

Doesn't Disney have Mickey's not so Scarry Halloween festival? and the Wine and Food festival?
I don't think that Disney is without attractions. The fact remains that Universal tourism is down to the point where they took more drastic measures then Disney did to cut back on cost. I would not be suprised in the least if HHN drew a significantly smaller crowd then in previsous years regardless of locals vs. Out of towners.
Still, I think that Your right that Universal will pick up based on Local tourism. At the same time, The airlines have actually had more passengers then flights due to the amayzing rebound in travel. So its possible that it won't hurt Disney as much as previously thought.

 

[gary]

I hope this stays more civil then the last thread

Sorry, YoHo, but isn't the "vs." in the thread title a red flag begging for debate? Not to mention the way Disney vs. Universal discussions have degenerated around here since before IOA was opened.

Like I said, stating the obvious...

Gary

 

[YoHo]

Did you read the last thread? (under the George Bush said go to WDW topic?)
I don't mind a little charged debate, heck I spend a lot of time on the debate board, but that is nothing like what just happened.

 

[Kotar]

Well said Gary

Mickey's not So Scary Halloween is better off being compared to Shamu's Halloween Spooktacular at Sea World in attendance and money making. Busch Gardens Hallowscream is something more likely to compare to HHN.

The Wine and Food Festival is no comparison to HHN nor Mardi Gras as well. You ought to see HHN, the parking garages are jam packed, and some of the wait times for the haunted houses go well over 1 hr to as high as 1 1/2 hrs, the park is jam packed as well. Universal makes a killing money-wise, no single event Disney has even comes close.

 

[YoHo]

Doesn't surprise me at all, I've seen Chicago's Six Flagg's Great America and Its Holloween deal. Its probably their highest numbers of the year. But, then Disney's going to have MVMCP right in there and supposedly bookings are going through the roof still for december. So, UO may jump up through this month (again, I doubt as much as in previous years), but after that, they'll probably even out.

Ultimatly, I doubt that the terroist attacks will have far reaching changes in what attractions out of towners hit and why.
Another question, does anyone know how Orlando does with day trippers? In L.A. Disneyland was doing pretty well (not including DCA) while Universal Orlando and WDW had falling attendence. Since LA is SO much bigger and has fewer options, I wonder if even Universal is more effected by out of staters. I mean the regulars on this board that are from Fla don't seen to be from Orlando, and don't seem to do Day trips, but rather weekend style getaways. this is a big difference and I would think would benefit WDW with its wider variety of Hotels and such.
Anyone in the know care to comment?

 

[Testtrack321]

Gee, Kotar, arn't you a little mad at the WD Company? Are you an ex-employe?The reason why Universal needs all that sepcial events is because without them, they would fail. Universal relies on HHN. Mardi Gras and New Years I have never heard of so they realy can't be that big of a money maker. Universal feeds of Disney, admit it or not. And New Years at Disney is bigger than at Universal. I like Universal, but the quailt of the CM's is not as good (except at a few notable exceptions) and their rides are general lacking something. Despite what everyone says, Universal will never be as big as Disney. It is like saying that Paramount's theme park unit will be like Six Flags. It is impossible. They are lacking in many major parts of the Disney experence. Plus, when you say "Orlando, Flordia" every one says MK, Epcot, MGM, but rarely* do they also mention Universal Studios and IOA...

* When I say every one, I meen people who arn't theme park junkies and Olando fannatics like us.

 

[YoHo]

I really don't think this needs to devolve into an Us versus them situation. I don't care about the relative quality of the themeparks. Clearly Universal Orlando has made great strides in Recent years. My topic of concern is Whether Universal and Vivendi are in a better position as a whole right now. I contend that they are not, BECAUSE, Telcom is in a slump and their Themeparks are seemingly having bigger problems. At the same time, their movie division seems on track and the parks may get a boost around holloween. I say that calls it a draw for now with future revenue dependent on whether Disney means what they say with the resorts and has a string of good movies and television quarters.

(anyone got a clue on Miramax's Serendipity? It's on my Fiancee's must see list right now.)

 

[Testtrack321]

Sorry. I think that Universal could suck the MNSHP by a Shrek theme attraction durring Holloween. But since the telecom industry is going down, don't expect any new, big ventures at Universal like IOA and the their hotels...

 

[YoHo]

TestTrack321, you bring up a good point, one of capital. Has Fox family gone through yet? and even if it does, what's Disney's Cash position. Can they open the pocketbook as Jim Hill suggests they will, or are their only a few flys in there?

 

[Kotar]

I'll give you MK and Epcot, but MGM and AK is only held in higher reguards by Disney fanatics.
Talk about feeding off of something, both MGM and AK feed off of MK and Epcot, as a matter of fact MK and Epcot are the only reason both of Universal's parks don't take MGM's and AK's spots in attendance #'s if they are still higher then USF and IOA.


Tourists and children are not the target audience for HHN, instead local teens and adults are who they go after, although every little bit helps, plus they give Florida residents and AP holders generous discounts. HHN is the talk of the town right now not Disney.

OPD had to force some of our already dwindling officers to work over-time to help with the crowds this annual event draws.

All I'm saying is that Disney has no single event that draws upwards of 46000 people for a seperately piced event that (only lasts 7hrs) and makes the money that HHN does.

USF has been open for over ten yrs. thats hardly failing. Both companies had certain times of the yr. when the attendance dipped, that's the whole reason why they implemented all of these special events. MGM had no rise in attendance at Xmas until they started the Osbourne Lights.

Both MGM and AK would both fail without MK and Epcot, as neither MGM or AK could be stand alone parks.

They don't need a Shrek tie-in for Halloween it draws more than enough people, however if they built some sort of permanent Shrek attraction that would truly be good for Universal in the long runsince there is already a Shrek sequel planned.

 

[Kotar]

Both companies only have moths in their wallets right now as do many other companies.

 

[YoHo]

Well, Disney Had quite a bit of Cash on Hand before Fox Family, that's what I'm curious about. As far as I know unless Fox family went through, they still have it, and I wonder how much will be left when the deal is done?

 

[Kotar]

Maybe for their sake they could somehow find a way out some sort of loophole of that deal, it def. would help them as you stated.

 

[DVC-Landbaron]

Both MGM and AK would both fail without MK and Epcot, as neither MGM or AK could be stand alone parks.

What an interesting concept!! The LandBaron needs to retire to his thoughtful place to contemplate this idea. But my first instinct is that you are 1,000,000% correct!!

I think we can all expect to discuss this issue very soon!!!

(actually it's quittin' time at work, and my home computer blew up on me!! So I leave you all to play nice for the weekend!! Unless I visit my brother on Sunday, I'll see you all on Monday!!! Have fun!)

 

[Captain Crook]

This is just getting subjective again. IMO, MGM & AK would both survive on their own, but the fact that they're tied to the original makes the mere thought impossible to fathom, for US/IOA, the Busch Parks, etc. wouldn't exist either under the "no MK" scenerio. Anyway, I still disagree on the idea that these Parks couldn't compete...

Yoho, I believe Disney's Cash supply is still good, even if the fox family goes through, Disney isn't using all of their reserves, it'll be a leveraged purchase. Their balance sheet is not the problem.

As witnessed from lrodk's thread, Eisner is on the move and interested in defending his turf. The only thing that'll stop a Disney return to the top will be the economy (a bad economy).

Regarding special events, Disney has no real need to draw 46,000 locals for a particular event, their demographic in the week long family followed by the Florida resident (like myself, gcurling, JeffH and others) who purchase AP's and spend 25-50 nights per year visiting the world. A single influx of locals would screw up Park traffic royally during normal times.

I would like to commend my brethern on their civility in disagrement.

 

[YoHo]

Captain, your just the person I was waiting for. That is what I thought. I suspected Disney Still had cash on hand and that will make all the difference in righting the Disney ship.

I'm a little concerned about UO for the same reason I don't want Disney to get involved in coaster parks. Capital expenditure is a must for a park that relies heavily on coasters. BG Tampa is just too close to stop the additions and expect crowds to stay the same. I'm talking over the length of a year or two, not days or months.

Also, My understanding is that IOA is not stricktly a coaster park may help it, but If Disney invests in the right things, they will clearly not be overtaken soon. If Vivendi is going after 3G, then that's probably where all the cash is going. That means UO may be cash weak for quite some time.