VGC resale vs DLT direct

[ONeilcool]

Anyone been to DLH lately and seen the construction going on? Are they still on pace to be done by 2023?

Actually just watched a youtube with some recent shots of the site:

Impossible to know if they are on pace but with active construction and we are still in 2021 seems promising they could be done in 2023.

 

[Royal Consort]

I'm in the same situation. I bought 50 points VGC last year with the intention of buying DLT but the more I thought about it, the more disappointed I became due to the lack of balconies (morning coffee and evening wine on the balcony is how we start the day and unwind). I am also not sold on the views you are likely to get at the tower. After booking an eye watering cash stay this year, I realised I needed more points and wasn't sure I could wait until 2023. This mixed in with being an international member and having to physically be in US at the time to buy direct, I also ended up buying another VGC resale 125 pts. Like you, I could always sell the 50 points in the future if I absolutely had to to have the DLT (I do love the DLH) but I am not sure that I will. Hope I made the right choice, prior to the DLT opening and hoping DLT won't blow me away but we will see.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I'm in the same situation. I bought 50 points VGC last year with the intention of buying DLT but the more I thought about it, the more disappointed I became due to the lack of balconies (morning coffee and evening wine on the balcony is how we start the day and unwind). I am also not sold on the views you are likely to get at the tower. After booking an eye watering cash stay this year, I realised I needed more points and wasn't sure I could wait until 2023. This mixed in with being an international member and having to physically be in US at the time to buy direct, I also ended up buying another VGC resale. Like you, I could always sell the 50 points in the future if I absolutely had to have the DLT (I do love the DLH) but I am not sure that I will. Hope I made the right choice, prior to the DLT opening and hoping DLT won't blow me away but we will see.

You are definitely not alone in this sentiment. I also bought two VGC contracts at the beginning of this year because I couldn't wait for DLT and for similar reasons you stated. Don't get me wrong. I think DLT will be really nice and shiny when it goes on sale. Probably as pretty as Riviera, especially with that contract expiration of 2074! And the resale restrictions won't matter, just like how I never use VGC points to book anywhere else but VGC. At the time, I said I'm done buying DVC in CA but I know I won't be able to resist once DLT starts selling. The biggest unknown for me is DLT availability at 7 months. I have enough direct points at CCV to use anywhere, but I wonder if DLT availability will mirror VGC where you basically haveto own there to book? If that's the case, the appeal of being a "blue card" member doesn't seem as great since the biggest selling point of direct membership will be the ability to stay at all future resorts. In that case, buying DLT on the resale market might not be a bad idea, even though we'll haveto wait even longer for it to go on the resale market.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Anyone been to DLH lately and seen the construction going on? Are they still on pace to be done by 2023? The anticipation for DLT is going to be crazy by then. Congrats on your VGC contract. There's no feeling quite like owning VGC. I remember feeling like a kid again when I first booked VGC at 11mo using freshly loaded points. I'm hoping DLT to be at or below $250pp. But I wouldn't be surprised to see $275 or even $300 for reasons previously mentioned.

I was there last month, and though there was some form of construction happening, it had not yet gone vertical. I know everyone’s expectations are sky high, but a good chunk of rooms facing away from the park look out on a residential area in Anaheim, right across the street. Not quite the immersion I was hoping for.

 

[Royal Consort]

I know everyone’s expectations are sky high, but a good chunk of rooms facing away from the park look out on a residential area in Anaheim, right across the street. Not quite the immersion I was hoping for.

Standard rooms are less appealing to me for this reason and I imagine there will be a significant premium for pool view (the difference between standard and preferred at Riviera is ridiculous). Standards will be popular due to lower points cost but I can't get excited about this view either.

 

[PirateBrigade]

I’m just waiting for VGC contracts to hit $400/pt now

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I’m just waiting for VGC contracts to hit $400/pt now

At what price point does it become more economical to pay rack rate?

 

[Great3]

At what price point does it become more economical to pay rack rate?

Never, because Rack Rate is ever increasing ridiculously!!! Check out Pop Century, it's like about $275 a night now when it was easily < $100 a night before.

Don't get me wrong, at $400 a point, I am out... and won't be going to WDW or DL as often anymore.

Great3

 

[PirateBrigade]

At what price point does it become more economical to pay rack rate?

Let’s calculate! I consider something economical if it breaks even at the 10 year mark (like solar, mortgage points, etc…)

Let’s say you buy a 136pt contract @ $400/pt = $54,400 which gets you 6 nights a year (Friday-Monday) in a VGC studio in the fall/spring.

Call it $7.50/pt for dues (rounding, don’t feel like calculating all 10 years). $7.50 x 136pts x 10 years = $10,200 dues cost.

$54,400 + $10,200 = $64,600 to stay 60 nights = $1076/night

We are almost to that point. If you believe the cost of a weekend night will go from $800 to $1200 over the 10 year mark, then you will likely break even at 10 years.

People are free to use a different period of time as the contract is good until 2060. Over 20 years, and $8.50/pt dues average, that comes to $77,520 for 120 nights, or $646/night.

Factors ignored for simplicity: opportunity costs of the initial $54,400, inflation, taxes, possible future tax deductions, borrowing costs if applicable, future Disney discounts to GCH hotel rates, DLT impact, future closures/wasted points, etc…

TL;DR = I will probably bid $360-$380 for a 50-150 point VGC contract if it matches my UY, but $400/pt isn’t entirely out of the question, either.

ETA: here’s a 3 night stay for this weekend:



If you paid this twice a year for ten years, total cost is $55,387….roughly the breakeven for $400/pt at current prices, no future increases ~12 years.

 

[Drewski77]

Let’s calculate! I consider something economical if it breaks even at the 10 year mark (like solar, mortgage points, etc…)

Let’s say you buy a 136pt contract @ $400/pt = $54,400 which gets you 6 nights a year (Friday-Monday) in a VGC studio in the fall/spring.

Call it $7.50/pt for dues (rounding, don’t feel like calculating all 10 years). $7.50 x 136pts x 10 years = $10,200 dues cost.

$54,400 + $10,200 = $64,600 to stay 60 nights = $1076/night

We are almost to that point. If you believe the cost of a weekend night will go from $800 to $1200 over the 10 year mark, then you will likely break even at 10 years.

People are free to use a different period of time as the contract is good until 2060. Over 20 years, and $8.50/pt dues average, that comes to $77,520 for 120 nights, or $646/night.

Factors ignored for simplicity: opportunity costs of the initial $54,400, inflation, taxes, possible future tax deductions, borrowing costs if applicable, future Disney discounts to GCH hotel rates, DLT impact, future closures/wasted points, etc…

TL;DR = I will probably bid $360-$380 for a 50-150 point VGC contract if it matches my UY, but $400/pt isn’t entirely out of the question, either.

ETA: here’s a 3 night stay for this weekend:

View attachment 612905
View attachment 612906
If you paid this twice a year for ten years, total cost is $55,387….roughly the breakeven for $400/pt at current prices, no future increases ~12 years.

Don’t do any more posts like this…you’ll make the price go up too much

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Let’s calculate! I consider something economical if it breaks even at the 10 year mark (like solar, mortgage points, etc…)

Let’s say you buy a 136pt contract @ $400/pt = $54,400 which gets you 6 nights a year (Friday-Monday) in a VGC studio in the fall/spring.

Call it $7.50/pt for dues (rounding, don’t feel like calculating all 10 years). $7.50 x 136pts x 10 years = $10,200 dues cost.

$54,400 + $10,200 = $64,600 to stay 60 nights = $1076/night

We are almost to that point. If you believe the cost of a weekend night will go from $800 to $1200 over the 10 year mark, then you will likely break even at 10 years.

People are free to use a different period of time as the contract is good until 2060. Over 20 years, and $8.50/pt dues average, that comes to $77,520 for 120 nights, or $646/night.

Factors ignored for simplicity: opportunity costs of the initial $54,400, inflation, taxes, possible future tax deductions, borrowing costs if applicable, future Disney discounts to GCH hotel rates, DLT impact, future closures/wasted points, etc…

TL;DR = I will probably bid $360-$380 for a 50-150 point VGC contract if it matches my UY, but $400/pt isn’t entirely out of the question, either.

ETA: here’s a 3 night stay for this weekend:

View attachment 612905
View attachment 612906
If you paid this twice a year for ten years, total cost is $55,387….roughly the breakeven for $400/pt at current prices, no future increases ~12 years.

Wowzers. You‘ve convinced me.

 

[upritbass]

Let’s calculate! I consider something economical if it breaks even at the 10 year mark (like solar, mortgage points, etc…)

Let’s say you buy a 136pt contract @ $400/pt = $54,400 which gets you 6 nights a year (Friday-Monday) in a VGC studio in the fall/spring.

Call it $7.50/pt for dues (rounding, don’t feel like calculating all 10 years). $7.50 x 136pts x 10 years = $10,200 dues cost.

$54,400 + $10,200 = $64,600 to stay 60 nights = $1076/night

We are almost to that point. If you believe the cost of a weekend night will go from $800 to $1200 over the 10 year mark, then you will likely break even at 10 years.

People are free to use a different period of time as the contract is good until 2060. Over 20 years, and $8.50/pt dues average, that comes to $77,520 for 120 nights, or $646/night.

Factors ignored for simplicity: opportunity costs of the initial $54,400, inflation, taxes, possible future tax deductions, borrowing costs if applicable, future Disney discounts to GCH hotel rates, DLT impact, future closures/wasted points, etc…

TL;DR = I will probably bid $360-$380 for a 50-150 point VGC contract if it matches my UY, but $400/pt isn’t entirely out of the question, either.

ETA: here’s a 3 night stay for this weekend:

View attachment 612905
View attachment 612906
If you paid this twice a year for ten years, total cost is $55,387….roughly the breakeven for $400/pt at current prices, no future increases ~12 years.

1) You forgot parking costs
2) That's for the woods/courtyard view. How much is a Park/DTD view?
3) How much is a balcony/kitchenette room? Oh, wait...

 

[PirateBrigade]

1) You forgot parking costs
2) That's for the woods/courtyard view. How much is a Park/DTD view?
3) How much is a balcony/kitchenette room? Oh, wait...

Eh I ignored a bunch of things in my slapdash back of envelope scribble scrabble. We’ll do this again if it ever hits $500/pt!

 

[PirateBrigade]

1) You forgot parking costs
2) That's for the woods/courtyard view. How much is a Park/DTD view?
3) How much is a balcony/kitchenette room? Oh, wait...

But I like answering questions, so here we go:

1) parking is $35/day? That increases the hotel cost by $2100 (ignoring inflation, NPV, etc...), so advantage DVC there.
2) no idea, and i will comment here... there just aren't rooms available over the next couple of weekends (i spot checked like, two weekends), so this was the only example I could pull of a Friday-Monday stay on the GCH side. Also, the DVC wing faces pool, Redwood Creek, and DCA/PP -- I don't think there is a DTD equivalent.
3) does GCH club level have kitchenettes/balconies? I'm rarely on that side -- I'm just comparing the lowest priced GCH option to the lowest point DVC option. I personally don't have a use for a full kitchen in the 1+ bedroom villas (I only ever cook when I'm at AUL), but that's definitely an unquantifiable ++ for DVC if you use it.

Side note: I bought my VGC contract 5+ years ago at $150/pt, but I remember the cost of a night being $333-$400/night at the time, so the price increase is definitely proportional.

final comment, anyone crazy enough to actually calculate the 10 year cost of ownership... is probably looking for a reason to justify a buy, or looking for a reason not to buy. Also, if you have $50k laying around and are contemplating a time share, you can probably/comfortably pay GCH rack rates and not worry about it.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Also, the DVC wing faces pool, Redwood Creek, and DCA/PP

Unless you’re on the first floor on the DCA side, then you get a stunning view of a 10’ tall brown fence…

 

[upritbass]

Unless you’re on the first floor on the DCA side, then you get a stunning view of a 10’ tall brown fence…

And direct access to grassy areas, which is perfect for our service dog.

And I think the brown fence is 16' tall...

 

[PirateBrigade]

Unless you’re on the first floor on the DCA side, then you get a stunning view of a 10’ tall brown fence…

I actually request the first floor...no need to wait for an elevator, DCA side is not bad, kind of a garden-ish view. Once we ditch strollers, I'll start asking for higher up.

But man, if I paid full freight and got that view... yeah, maybe I wouldn't be so happy.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I actually request the first floor...no need to wait for an elevator, DCA side is not bad, kind of a garden-ish view. Once we ditch strollers, I'll start asking for higher up.

But man, if I paid full freight and got that view... yeah, maybe I wouldn't be so happy.

My wife and I just book the occasional 1, 2 or 3 night stays. I’m a relatively new DVC owner (not at VGC), and every time we’ve stayed there, we’ve had either a first floor view of the fence, or a higher level view of an ugly California Adventure backstage area. Both were terrible. I’m starting to think they save the better views for those staying longer.

We like staying there, the theming is beautiful, but our one bedrooms have both been dark and kinda gloomy. That’s one feature we don’t like, and one reason we wouldn’t want to own there.

 

[DonMacGregor]

And direct access to grassy areas, which is perfect for our service dog.

And I think the brown fence is 16' tall...

I think I lucked out and was adjacent to a gate...LOL. Of course, my patio was so close to the walking path that if someone tripped, they'd land in my room.

 

[PirateBrigade]

My wife and I just book the occasional 1, 2 or 3 night stays. I’m a relatively new DVC owner (not at VGC), and every time we’ve stayed there, we’ve had either a first floor view of the fence, or a higher level view of an ugly California Adventure backstage area. Both were terrible. I’m starting to think they save the better views for those staying longer.

We like staying there, the theming is beautiful, but our one bedrooms have both been dark and kinda gloomy. That’s one featured we don’t like, and one reason we wouldn’t want to own there.

It's so interesting hearing the flip side -- the darker rooms are great for those midday naps (no need to pull the blackout curtains out and accidentally sleep for 5 hours, hah), I feel that there aren't many noise issues, either. I generally book 8-9 months ahead (by necessity) for mostly 2 night stays, I do agree I think they hold the higher rooms for the longer stays.