VDH Opening

[HIRyeDVC]

I don't know why they have not leaked something for us members to talk about. Speculating is only fun for so long.

I think Disney just wants to torture the fans with VDH to create crazy demand. By the time all the info is released, people are just tired of waiting and are willing to throw whatever money their way.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Just like in the housing market, they put up the little signs on the Realtor For Sale Signs “ Coming soon”……it drives pent up demand.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Just like in the housing market, they put up the little sights on the Realtor For Sale Signs “ Coming soon”……it drives pent up demand.

It also gives people like my wife more time to point out things that she doesn’t like about it. Neither of us want a princess hanging in our room or frilly stickers on the pull out bed….

But, she wants to stay in 2BDs as the kids get bigger for the privacy and additional bathroom. A low enough price point/buy in (relative to VGC resale )/dues est. could be enough to overcome the COLOR theming and additional walk.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

It also gives people like my wife more time to point out things that she doesn’t like about it. Neither of us want a princess hanging in our room or frilly stickers on the pull out bed….

But, she wants to stay in 2BDs as the kids get bigger for the privacy and additional bathroom. A low enough price point/buy in (relative to VGC resale )/dues est. could be enough to overcome the COLOR theming and additional walk.

I really want to love VDH. But the “ Color”, lack of theming, upscale Art of Animation decor, studios with and without balconies, I am just not feeling it. Happy for those who love it.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I think the VDH looks nice. But definitely as time goes on, I'm realizing I think I'd regret not doing VGC instead since I really love the style and location a lot.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

I really want to love VDH. But the “ Color”, lack of theming, upscale Art of Animation decor, studios with and without balconies, I am just not feeling it. Happy for those who love it.

I love this about DVC - lots of properties with different feel/theme. Something for everyone. OK just two options at DLR but they certainly offer something for those with a different palate. I've always appreciated Art of Animation but... not Deluxe . Now you have that but elevated.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think the VDH looks nice. But definitely as time goes on, I'm realizing I think I'd regret not doing VGC instead since I really love the style and location a lot.

I agree, but we’d rather stay at VDH than off-property or pay the high cash room hotel costs…

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Something for everyone. OK just two options at DLR but they certainly offer something for those with a different palate.

I agree and love the variety but let’s be real. VGC is just not accessible for the most part unless you own it. Similar might be true at VDH. I hope to use my direct points at VDH but the way Disney is offering only cash rooms even for owners is making me think Disney prefers to own the points and rent out themselves rather than having owners access at 7 months.

 

[ehh]

That's very unusual. At Marriott's Grande Vista, the ratios are roughly: 1::1.35::2.2. At Harbour Lake it is 1::1.4::2.3

[...]

In some ways, I think OKW's relative point assignment was DVC's "original sin." Had those been more like the valuations other timeshare systems came up with, DVC might look very different today.

Completely agree that this is DVC's 'original sin' and it's a large factor why we're 'studio people' despite having over 1000 points.

We'll do a 1BR for a couple of stays per year because we do like them, but we struggle to justify the 2x points for all stays. And we just don't have enough points because they are 2x the points.

Coincidentally, the WDW/Aulani cash rates for Studios :: 1BR :: 2BR tend to fall right in line with the Marriott Grande Vista and Harbour Lake points ratios. So even Disney knows that is the true value of the villas as they'd definitely rent them at a higher price if they could.

 

[nalabear]

I agree and love the variety but let’s be real. VGC is just not accessible for the most part unless you own it. Similar might be true at VDH. I hope to use my direct points at VDH but the way Disney is offering only cash rooms even for owners is making me think Disney prefers to own the points and rent out themselves rather than having owners access at 7 months.

I just may be California laws and rules -- wouldn't be surprised.

Disney won't transfer even close to 20% of rooms at the beginning anyways to DVC so the cash grab is probably not that true unless they will only have 20% of rooms available at opening. The details of the actual date of opening is muddy in itself. They have 2 weeks to give out more details.

Interestingly, got call for my guide and first question was: you going to book cash room? Nope. Waiting patiently for point chart, starting price, and incentives. VGC vs VDH -- we are 'patient' (cheap) DVCers

 

[AstroBlasters]

I'm going to make some assumptions (that many other people will completely disagree with) to get an estimate for pricing.

1) Assumption that with member add on incentives I can get points at $205pp.
2) There will be a 50 year contract.
3) Dues will be $9pp.
4) The point chart will match RIV.
5) There will be a SV and PV category of rooms at VDH.

Those assumptions lead me to an amortized cost of $13pp.

So using my upcoming DLand trip from 3/22/23 to 3/28/23 for RIV point chart:

1) A "Tower/Duo Studio" would average $234 a night.
2) A SV Studio would average $290 a night.
3) A PV Studio would average $364 a night.
4) A 1BD SV would be $602 a night.
5) A 1BD PV would be $732 a night.

Let me compare that to resale @ VGC. I just poked around on a few contracts and the sellers would not go below $255 a point. I'll be generous and use $245 a point as an average since some people have reported in the $230s in ROFR report. Over a remaining 35 years and $8 dues that would amortize to around $15pp.

1) A Studio would average $420 a night.
2) A 1BD Villa would average $840 a night.

For Studio, VDH would be 15% lower on PV and 31% lower on SV.
For 1BD, VDH would be 15% lower for PV and 28% lower on SV.

That leads me to a few thoughts:

1) DVC is still a good deal relative to cash rates wether you go VDH or VGC.

2) The VDH "Duos" and Studios are a good deal for small families and DINCs and will have significantly better availability that VGC has. Studio focused households will go with VDH direct and eventually resale.

3) Given that we don't know how many (if any) of the VDH 1BD will be SV, I think villa buyers will still prefer VGC and the number of resale contracts available will continue to drop.

4) I still like the VDH GV and hope the bedrooms are more "subtle" than the 1BD and studio renderings.

 

[Brian Noble]

Those assumptions lead me to an amortized cost of $13pp.

Only if you are "amortizing" at 0%. Timeshare sales agents love it when you do that, because you are making their case for them.

Love. It.

This doesn't change your overall point--that VGC is more expensive. The amortization window is shorter and the price is higher. But using those figures as absolutes to compare to cash rental rates is going to be very optimistic for ownership.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Only if you are "amortizing" at 0%. Timeshare sales agents love it when you do that, because you are making their case for them.

Love. It.

This doesn't change your overall point--that VGC is more expensive. The amortization window is shorter and the price is higher. But using those figures as absolutes to compare to cash rental rates is going to be very optimistic for ownership.

Those are my assumptions and how I run the numbers. There are plenty of other threads where people go into other ways of doing it.

 

[Brian Noble]

Well, your Guide probably owes you a fruit basket then.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

3) Given that we don't know how many (if any) of the VDH 1BD will be SV, I think villa buyers will still prefer VGC and the number of resale contracts available will continue to drop.

All the 1-2 bedrooms will be facing one of the pools not the parking lot like some of the studios. So I’m doubting any will be SV

 

[AstroBlasters]

Well, your Guide probably owes you a fruit basket then.

Your condescending tone is noted, but I don’t think it makes sense to hijack a thread on something that has been argued ad nauseam on this board.

You should feel free to come up with your own estimates without the need to insult others.

 

[AstroBlasters]

All the 1-2 bedrooms will be facing one of the pools not the parking lot like some of the studios. So I’m doubting any will be SV

Good to note.

 

[Chili327]

A low enough price point/buy in (relative to VGC resale )/dues est. could be enough to overcome the COLOR theming and additional walk.

I think the VDH looks nice. But definitely as time goes on, I'm realizing I think I'd regret not doing VGC instead since I really love the style and location a lot.

Agreed. Since resale will only be good at VDH, I don't think VDH would be worth buying into for more (higher price) than a resale VGC.?
I guess technically direct gives you 7 months, but I'm not sure anyone would use those expensive points to book in Orlando. (they wont be able to use at VGC either) seems to me restrictions are killing DVC's value in general. lol

 

[BWV Dreamin]

So some want to compute that VGC will be more expensive than VDH. But no one is placing a value on the fact that at resale, those points can still be used at the other 13 current DVC’s. I say that value should be factored in, then it may not seem more expensive after all.

 

[nalabear]

restrictions are meant to keep points at resort and promote sales direct. Not surprised disney went that route. Sucks, but not surprised.

The assumptions are sound, but really don't know where the VGC resales are going to go. Already reported one $225. It's the only resort that carried a premium on resale over direct sales because of unique only resort for DLR AND small size. The former is going to go away and that's a pretty big one too. VDH restrictions (if they will be there -- none announced) will have less impact being on west coast and more unique market for DLR. I will probably hurt DVC owners east coast more (but really don't know how much interest will be coming from the East coast as far as ownership).

Yes - VGC will remain a cost premium -- unless it drops to something like $180s does the math start evening out (or direct sales to 230s)