*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[DividedSky]

Then abolish FP altogether. But if one is going to have the system, one should concede that people in the park all day should be able to take advantage of it and not have much of its benefit helded n check awaiting the arrival of people who may or may not arrive. What becomes of the FPs held by the person who intends to come in the afternoon but never shows up? I am to wait in a 90 minute line because they are hoarding a FP that will never get used?

your stance is rather strange. Should an all you can eat buffet operate in the same manner?

"I think since I got here first, and have gotten so much more value for my money already, the restaurant should reward me by allowing me to eat even more then the other guy that showed up just for dinner"

 

[NavyDad]

You claim that this is a straw man argument (and you are misusing that term), but you offer no refutation. You have not, because you cannot, proffer an argument that people who used to get FPs for both Test Track and Soarin’ are now waiting in shorter aggregate lines than before. This hypothetical family, as you put it, is not hypothetical at all. Nor are they anomalous. There is no combination of rides that can be put together that would have the 2014 family come out ahead of the 2013 family. So discard my hypothetical family and posit one of your own. The best that you can offer is that in the collective, more people are using FP than ever before, so that some subset of the people who used to wait 90 minutes in both lines will now wake up to the system and eliminate one of those 90 minute waits. But how does looking at this in the collective benefit anyone, (except perhaps Disney)? The person who waited in two 90 minutes lines before was blissfully ignorant, so they have now reaped a windfall. The person who used to wait in no 90 minute lines has to wait in one. Averaging it out, you end up with a zero sum net result. But you negatively impacted a person who understood the old system (imagine that) and helped a person who wasn’t crying out for help. If that person really wanted help, self-help was right in front of them. You cannot contend that people who rode Soarin’, who walked right past the FP machines on the way into and out of the line, could have possibly been so dense as to not figure out what they were and what they were for. And if they were that dense, then……

It would actually be a text book example of a straw man argument. You gave an example of one particular family agenda at one particular park that you say would be better off under the old system and conclude that it must be obvious that NO ONE is being benefited by the new system.....

Also if you keep judging the success of whether or not it HURTS you or HELPS others you will continue to miss the point of what Disney is trying to do. They are trying to maximize efficiency of pushing tens of thousands of people through attractions in order to decrease total man hours spent waiting in line. Me coming up with another single family scenario and trying to walk it through is not going to make anyone understand the concpet of sytem efficiency any better.

It's not about if one particular family spends more time in line or not but the total time 75k visitors to MK spend waiting in line. There are basically two ways to do this: increase attraction capacity and increase queueing efficiency.

Under the old system you had less people using the more efficient method of queuing. Under the new system you have MORE people using the more efficient method of queueing.

When you have an inefficient queueing system - YES - there will be certain people that will benefit and certain people that will not. When you make smooth out a system you will have less of that. The system may work better but -YES- there will be certain indivduals or groups that will no longer have the benefits they once enjoyed.

 

[MrInfinity]

Disney has created a system whereby I must wait in a 90 minute Test Track line so that someone who had a BBB appointment and arrived at the park at 3:00 could ride the ride without a wait. They made their choice and I made mine. I chose to be at the park all day. Reward me for that.

In all fairness, that person w the BBB appointment dropped an extra $100 on some glitter and hairspray. You're going to fault Disney for making a system that is conducive to such frivolous spending or for courting tourists who would do this sort of stuff?

 

[JimmyV]

1. Anecdotal "actual" wait times wouldn't be enough to draw any better conclusions even if you had 100 people in the parks constantly timing waits.

2. Overall, posted waits are fairly accurate

#1 is only true if #2 is true as well. Actual data has to be better than estimated data. Definitionally, this has to be true. But recent observations such as the one below are becoming more and more commono. We definitely noticed it, especially early in the day when FP returnees were entering lines much earlier than they did under FP-. At those times posted wait times were way off.

I just got back from a weekend in WDW. My experience was that the listed wait times were not accurate at all. In Epcot, Figment's listed wait time was 10 minutes. I waited nearly 20. Nemo had a wait time of 15 minutes. I walked right on. Maelstrom had a listed time of 10 minutes. I waited 20.

At Animal Kingdom, Dinosaur had a listed wait time of 30 minutes. I had a fastpass+ but there was actually no one is the standby line and people who entered the standby line at the same time I entered the fastpass+ line beat me to the ride because they didn't have to take the time to scan their magic bands. This was around 3pm.

At Magic Kingdom, Ariel had a listed wait time of 20 minutes. I waited 5 (and only because the ride was stopped when I got to the loading area). Thunder Mountain had a listed time of 15 minutes. I walked right on. Haunted Mansion said 20 minutes. I waited a little less than 10.

I really don't feel like the listed wait times can be trusted. That being said, I don't remember the last time I have ever had to wait for Figment or Living with the Land. For some of the other rides, like the Maelstrom and Haunted Mansion, I have only seen wait times exceeding 20ish minutes in the middle of summer. This weekend there were times that Pirates, Haunted Mansion, and some other rides that typically have fairly short standby times were 45 minutes or more. However, 15-20 minutes later the lines were down to 10-20 minute waits. An hour later, they were back up again. I think the standby time really depends on how many fastpass+ people return at the same time and your own luck with timing.

 

[squirrel4569]

Initially, when reading Josh's report, I was disappointed in the system because I had hoped that FP+ would help to optimize the lines and make the waits shorter, but with some exceptions, it appears to be doing the opposite. The waits aren't horrifically longer, although if you do it on a percentage basis for a couple of the rides (POTC) then it's a lot longer.

Our way of touring would be impacted by this because typically we would pull a FP at RD, then hit a major non-FP attraction, hit short wait rides while we were waiting for our window, then use the FP and/or pull another one when the window opened, continue to cherry pick short wait rides/attractions while waiting for our FP time and keep going with that through the day. This was easy to do at MK, where you could go land by land. Epcot and DHS required a bit more criss crossing of the park, but could also be done. AK isn't big enough where a bunch of FP are really an issue. I suspect when Avatarland shows up that will change. AK we get there early, hit the rides we want, then hit the shows. Maybe FP EE, but we found waiting for FP windows was longer than waiting for the rides most of the time.

We are do something once, maybe twice throughout our trip, type of tourers. Last year there were still Soarin FP left at 4pm and we pulled a second set of FP, but other than that we didn't really hit a bunch of things multiple times. My wife isn't a big coaster person and DD2 is too short for many, so we would pull four FP for those rides then DD1 and I would ride twice.

While it's difficult to stay positive with these numbers, they are still testing and things likely will change through the year. Spring break is now in some parts of the country and will continue on for the next few weeks with Easter week being the biggest I would think. After that time I would expect more tweaks in preparation for the summer season.

I will also say that Disneyland is looking more appealing and I'm kind of glad that I'm not going this year while all of this shakes out. Late this year and next year should be better I would think/hope.

 

[Mad Hattered]

I don't think the post arrives at any conclusions stronger than the "data" suggest. The analysis is hampered by the fact that it relies on Disney's own posted waits, but nothing better is ever going to be available. Anecdotal "actual" wait times wouldn't be enough to draw any better conclusions even if you had 100 people in the parks constantly timing waits. Overall, posted waits are fairly accurate and the fact that the charts use median times instead of average times helps eliminate the outliers or wildly inaccurate wait times.

Otherwise the post isn't titled "The be all end all facts of FP+ effects on standby waits," it just takes a look over about 700,000 wait times over the course of several months.

Attendance is up just under 1.5% year over year but that's unlikely to cause the spikes we're seeing at certain attractions. There were similar gains between 2012 and 2013 and wait times were largely unaffected.

Thanks, Josh.

Here he is in case anyone wanted to question him.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I've said it many times, that FP+ gets more ppl on a few rides quickly, and anyone that wants to ride many times is going to have to wait for those that want to ride once.

This assumes that everyone who is in the standby line is there for a second, third, fourth+ ride. Faulty assumption, IMO.

With only 3FP+/day, DH and I now have to choose what to FP. If we FP+ our rides, we don't have enough to FP+ DD's rides. If we FP+ her rides, it then leaves us in longer SB lines for us to experience the ride just once.

So where we both used to be able to ride Thunder and Space in about 30 mins time with FP- (not necessarily consecutively, but the amt of time to wait in FP- line, ride, use RS - for both rides), now we're looking at at least 30 mins (during the seasons in which we travel) for parent #1 to get through 1 ride, and another 30 mins for parent #2 to get through the second ride and then add probably about 10 mins or so for the other parent to ride each ride w/RS and now we're looking at spending (easily) 70 mins apart as a family, for DH and I to ride 2 rides, which is more than double what we spent in the past. And that's just for us both to ride 2 rides once.

 

[bwang123]

That's not all someone can do.

The more visible FP+ complaints are on social media and message boards can only provide more impetus to accelerate any changes.

Except Disney said that they used social media to determine that 80% of guests viewed the changes as positive and only 2% as negative.

Though, I have little doubt they probably pulled these numbers from an "I LOVE DISNEY FP+" page they setup on Facebook.

 

[JimmyV]

It would actually be a text book example of a straw man argument. You gave an example of one particular family agenda at one particular park that you say would be better off under the old system and conclude that it must be obvious that NO ONE is being benefited by the new system.....

Sorry, but I never said that no one is being benefited, and hence it is not a straw man argument. My conclusion is that people who rode both TT and Soarin' with FPs before cannot do so now and that their cumulative wait times in lines will increase. This is an empirical fact, not a straw man argument. Of course one could devise some paradigm by which a 2014 family benefits. But all I did was show how a very simple, common touring day would be impacted. I did not use any odd or outlier touring strategies. If you want to argue that the example that I gave was not representative of what people do in Epcot on a typical day, fine. But the court of public opinion will not agree with you.

Also if you keep judging the success of whether or not it HURTS you or HELPS others you will continue to miss the point of what Disney is trying to do. They are trying to maximize efficiency of pushing tens of thousands of people through attractions in order to decrease total man hours spent waiting in line.

This entire thread is about wether lines are longer, not about Disney's motivations. Here, you concede that the premise is likely correct that lines are longer for individuals, but shorter in the aggregate. No one leaves the park at the end of the day thankful for the latter if the former is true.

 

[NavyDad]

But it is more than that. I am not (solely) interested in besting the masses. I am also interested in being rewarded for spending an entire day in the park and feel that I should have the opportunity to use more of the line-cutting strategies than someone who sleeps til noon and arrives at the park at 2:00. That person gets their 3 FPs. Fine. But why should I be on the same level playing field as them? Disney has created a system whereby I must wait in a 90 minute Test Track line so that someone who had a BBB appointment and arrived at the park at 3:00 could ride the ride without a wait. They made their choice and I made mine. I chose to be at the park all day. Reward me for that.

See - You made a good point...

Doesn't it feel good to be (at least partially) intellectually honest - we want to be rewarded for making good choices like getting to the parks early.

Disney has a very vanilla priority equation right now. They use the Tiers and they use the fact that you have a FP and the STBY people do not.

A suggestion might be to reward your choice by giving you more FP if you book your trip at off-peak times or even if you book your FP for earlier in the day.

Example: 3 FP to be used 1pm to 5pm or 5 that have to be used before 1pm or after 5 pm.

This may be a constructive suggestion for a tweak...

 

[jenninaustin]

This will not likely affect our usual touring plans. We are a RD family and will continue to arrive before RD and leave by 1pm each day and return in the evening for entertainment. We usually find most things to be walk on to 10 minutes for us in the morning if we tour wisely. Should this not be the case next week when we go, then I'll know why.

I really hope you guys who are going soon will let us know how it works - because that will sure help those of us going in June! I'm sure you will - just saying thanks in advance. Hopefully I can return the favor someday in some way!

 

[johde]

You have to be careful with Touring Plans "optimal" plans. They don't always make logical sense. I find it best to start with an optimal plan and then adjust it manually. You often end up with a better total result. I can guarantee that the plan I laid out would not result in two and a half hours of walking. That is an extraordinary number.

I've used Touring plans enough to realize it's not perfect. Especially with FP+ it seems to be 2 steps forward 1 step back. Part of the walking time is I use "relaxed", not "normal" but also not "very relaxed". Even so, looking at the data, some of it looks off, but some of them are going on with both plans. On individual plans, they estimated 20 minutes to get from Imagination to TT to Soarin' to grab that FP. The theory though is potentially sound. In your FP- example, if you were spending all day at EPCOT you would probably be walking back over to World Showcase after MS to tour some more. With some planning, you would only visit the left side of FW, right side of FW, and WS once during the day instead of bouncing back and forth.

 

[Mac4life30]

I cant wait to see what happens during the summer time.

 

[JimmyV]

your stance is rather strange. Should an all you can eat buffet operate in the same manner?

"I think since I got here first, and have gotten so much more value for my money already, the restaurant should reward me by allowing me to eat even more then the other guy that showed up just for dinner"

I'll be honest. I have no idea what this is supposed to mean. If you want to equate this to an all you can eat buffet, the person who arrives an hour before the restauant closes is entitled to more food than the person who arrives five minutes before closing time. The late arriver does not get to take a doggy bag of food home.

 

[JimmyV]

Disney has a very vanilla priority equation right now. They use the Tiers and they use the fact that you have a FP and the STBY people do not.

A suggestion might be to reward your choice by giving you more FP if you book your trip at off-peak times or even if you book your FP for earlier in the day.

Example: 3 FP to be used 1pm to 5pm or 5 that have to be used before 1pm or after 5 pm.

This may be a constructive suggestion for a tweak...

All of this will soon be mooted if Disney implements any changes along the lines of its current survey. All of the choices being offered in the survey favor the early arriver, so one shouldn't waste too much energy trying to defend a system that even Disney is questioning at this point.

 

[mom2rtk]

In all fairness, that person w the BBB appointment dropped an extra $100 on some glitter and hairspray. You're going to fault Disney for making a system that is conducive to such frivolous spending or for courting tourists who would do this sort of stuff?

Actually glitter and hairspray can be had at BBB for a mere $55.

 

[JimmyV]

I've used Touring plans enough to realize it's not perfect. Especially with FP+ it seems to be 2 steps forward 1 step back. Part of the walking time is I use "relaxed", not "normal" but also not "very relaxed". Even so, looking at the data, some of it looks off, but some of them are going on with both plans. On individual plans, they estimated 20 minutes to get from Imagination to TT to Soarin' to grab that FP. The theory though is potentially sound. In your FP- example, if you were spending all day at EPCOT you would probably be walking back over to World Showcase after MS to tour some more. With some planning, you would only visit the left side of FW, right side of FW, and WS once during the day instead of bouncing back and forth.

You are right. Rest assured that I did not spend more than the time it took me to type the post plotting out that hypothetical day for fear that some might think that I was stuffing too much straw into my hypothetical family. It was an "off-the-top-of-my-head" plan that sounded about right for a normal family not using a computer efficiency model. When I make actual plans, I usually do better.

 

[JimmyV]

Actually glitter and hairspray can be had at BBB for a mere $55.

And the spending argument is hard to make. The person who paid for BBB did not pay $50 for beers in Germany and Margarita's in Mexico. No real way to determine, financially, who is more "worthy" of fast passes.

 

[MrInfinity]

This whole thing is such a "straw-man" argument:

"FP+ is a terrible mistake and a complete blunder because I will have to wait longer in line or I won't get as many FP as before."

and

"FP+ was not needed because everyone had the same access to FP before - why can't anyone understand that?!?"

or

"This one anecdotal family I give an example of would fare better under Legacy than Plus so the whole system is bogus and obviously no one is better off under Plus and you must see that because it is the only logical conclussion"

I have to throw the flag on all of these arguments.

There is an underlying factor to all of this. People don't want to admit it so they make up straw-man arguments to try and defend their little piece of turf.

Under the old system you could exploit the system if you were informed and/or experienced to maximize your time. Some people were masters at it, some were OK but got better as trips went on - and a great many people were basically clueless. We all benefited from that great mass of clueless people. While THEY wandered around trying to figure out what to do WE arrived to the park at RD, hit the good rides early, got our FP and had them timed out to maximize the number we could get in a day. For awhile we even could use these FP outside of our window. Most of us took great advantage of this and boy were most of us MAD when Disney had the nerve to actually start enforcing those return windows.

Flash forward to 2014. Disney has decided they want to maximize overall use of this really efficient FP queueing system. They are going to advertise it and even give people the chance to reserve rides at certain times before they even get there. They make the system easier to use so that instead of running or speedwalking on your pre-planned route people can gobble up those Fast Passes from their computer, smartphone (even grandma has a smart phone these days) or handy computer terminals inside the park. Disney thinks this is going to greatly increase use of FP so even though some of us experts were able to get 6 or 7 a day before they decide to limit it to 3 a day to make sure there is enough to go around.

So now what happens??? Armed with more knowledge about the system and easier access those great clueless masses actualy start booking and using their Fast Passes. Josh from easy wdw posts an article with some shocking news: two months into the new system MORE PEOPLE ARE USING FAST PASS AND BECAUSE OF THAT STAND BY TIMES ON SOME SECONDARY RIDES HAVE INCREASED. Imagine the outrage - now because those people who used to wander around without a clue and stand in line for 2 hours in the middle of the day are actually using FP I now have to wait 30 minutes for Pirates instead of 15. On top of that instead of me getting 5 - 7 fast passes a day while they maybe got 1 or 2 once they figured out what those funny tickets were coming out of those machines near the good rides, I only get 3 just like everybody else.

The entire system MUST be completely messed up because I don't get as many fastpasses as I used to get. The fact that other people are using FP more now than before means nothing because they could have figured out the old system just like I did.

Fast Pass Plus is a huge mistake because I, I, I and me, me, me may have to wait a little longer in line. It doesn't matter that the massive numbers of first time guests at MK today got to tour the parks more efficiently. I didn't get to ride Splash Mountain 7 times before they figured out the difference between Space Mountain and Big Thunder Mountain.

These idiot execs at Billion Dollar companies like Wal-Mart, Amazon and Disney must be clueless because they listend to a few brilliant engineers who innovated their inventory and delivery systems to help them more efficiently serve a greater number of their customers. Don't they know their systems are complete failures because I can come up with an anecdote of one day that the system didn't fully benefit ME? Don't they know that all of their other customers must be as knowledgable and experienced as me?

I, I, I, need more, more, more and if Disney doesn't want to give it to me they are obviously failing....

Disney Marketing: "FP+. Even the clueless masses can do it."

 

[Mac4life30]

Actually glitter and hairspray can be had at BBB for a mere $55.

I don't think Disney is faulting anyone. We have the choice to do whatever we want during our vacation. Whats rewarding for me might not be for you. The concern is someone who finds it rewarding to spend all day in a park is being negatively impacted by those who walk in at noon.
If you were doing something more rewarding then kudos but now if you want to ride TT you have to wait in line.

I think if things went back to how they were for legacy (meaning that not every ride has FP and you can get as many as you want provided is every two hours or after you use it) we wouldn't have this mess.