*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[OtherScott]

Wow. Sounds like Disney is God.

They can do no wrong. They plan everything far into the future. They can see 14 moves in advance. They are omnicient. They actually know more about me and why I like theme parks than I do! Awesome.

I compared Disney rationale to the uninformed opinions on this board. You think Disney's loyal guest pool, based on historical trends, provides for sustainability going forward? Great, show me your data.

Enough sarcasm. Let's get real here. Disney has made plenty of mistakes in the past, and they are still making 'em. They are pissing off a big chunk of their core, most loyal audience because they took us for granted. They are trying to manipulate the masses into buying more merch, instead of simply giving us great reasons to come visit by spending on park infrastructure rather than IT.

How big is the chunk?

They couldn't even learn from the example across town, at WWOHP. Guess what happened when that new land drew big crowds? Yep, not just an attendance boost but a boost in food and merch sales, too.

I've lost track of how many posts I've read that say something to the effect of "we are going somewhere else on our next trip" or "we are cutting back on the number of days at Disney" or "we won't make our travel plans until they fix this FP+ mess", and numerous other variations of disenchantment with the Mouse. Those posts just keep multiplying.

I lost track, too. So one day I went through a 50 page complaint thread (boredom does strange things) - 32 posters who couldn't agree on whether it was bad or good...and of those who agreed it was bad, couldn't agree on why.

So you still think that Disney, in their infinite wisdom, forsaw all of this?

If "all of this" is some level of concern and disappointment with a faction of their customer base (existing and potential), yes. They probably watch the weather, too.

 

[2Tiggies]

So one day I went through a 50 page complaint thread (boredom does strange things) - 32 posters who couldn't agree on whether it was bad or good...and of those who agreed it was bad, couldn't agree on why.

They don't agree on why any more than the likers agree on why because there are different factors influencing various people's response to FP+

My reasons for disliking it may not be the same as the next person's. The park hopping issue is a deal breaker for many. We have hoppers. Yes it's inconvenient, but it's really the least of my worries and not enough on its own to make me dislike the system. I also happen to dislike being so scheduled. Some folk who do and some who don't like the new system actually like planning and having the routine pretty much set in stone .... the list goes on.

There seems to be a generalization that anyone who doesn't like FP used to go tearing around the parks knocking people over to grab 20 FP's or that if you don't like it you have to have toured the parks a certain way

It is interesting to me that those who are so in favor of the new system seem to have more insight to everyone else's former park touring style than those so-called commandos did themselves. I don't need to be told what I used to do. I was there. Those critics were not.

 

[OtherScott]

No we are comparing standby lines since the start of FP+ limitations vs. previously.

They now have 60 days worth of data and thousands of guests. The MB give them a tremendous amount of data. Are guests using 3 and out? Are guests spending more than last year? If we've had a 1.5% increase in guest attendence but a 1.5% drop in spending?

All due respect, we were discussing $1.5 billion on NextGen with $1.1 billion on Cars Land.

As for data, it's all useful to a degree, but roughly only half of your guests have access to pre-book while the others are using day of. I would suspect the latter are less satisfied (as a group) than the onsiters.

I would expect that at this stage a trend of 3 and out will show up. I also would expect to see a significant number of no-shows giving the requirement to book 3 FPs, and the reported difficulty for parties that may have 2 common FPs but differ on the 3rd.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

Which is why, to my mind, they're trying NextGen in the first place. When I wrote that Disney knows your kids better than you do, this was the underlying point.

You're lumping dissatifaction of FP+ with NextGen. I think the Magic Bands are great.

I'll have to take your word for it. I would have guessed that given the cost of air travel and a Disney vacation, plus work and school schedules, most people wouldn't be able to just up and run for Orlando based on the weather.

The Mid-Atlantic states got pummeled this winter. Some school districts have had 16 unscheduled snow days. If I could throw my kids in the car and drive 10 hours and get away from the gloomy, grey weather that has been going on for months I would.

I compared Disney rationale to the uninformed opinions on this board. You think Disney's loyal guest pool, based on historical trends, provides for sustainability going forward? Great, show me your data.



How big is the chunk?



I lost track, too. So one day I went through a 50 page complaint thread (boredom does strange things) - 32 posters who couldn't agree on whether it was bad or good...and of those who agreed it was bad, couldn't agree on why.


If "all of this" is some level of concern and disappointment with a faction of their customer base (existing and potential), yes. They probably watch the weather, too.

Fine. Show me the data.

How big is that faction since you claim to be more informed?

It has been reported that park attendence has increased. Has spending/ guest gone up? Has the number of hours in the park per guest gone up?

Of course people couldn't agree what they don't like because there is more than ONE thing they don't like. Too much preplanning, no flexiblity, no availability, longer SB lines (which is the topic of the thread).

Since you claim to be more informed. Are you saying that the information and data the OP is incorrect? Please show me YOUR data.

 

[OtherScott]

They don't agree on why any more than the likers agree on why because there are different factors influencing various people's response to FP+

My reasons for disliking it may not be the same as the next person's. The park hopping issue is a deal breaker for many. We have hoppers. Yes it's inconvenient, but it's really the least of my worries and not enough on its own to make me dislike the system. I also happen to dislike being so scheduled. Some folk who do and some who don't like the new system actually like planning and having the routine pretty much set in stone .... the list goes on.

There seems to be a generalization that anyone who doesn't like FP used to go tearing around the parks knocking people over to grab 20 FP's or that if you don't like it you have to have toured the parks a certain way

It is interesting to me that those who are so in favor of the new system seem to have more insight to everyone else's former park touring style than those so-called commandos did themselves. I don't need to be told what I used to do. I was there. Those critics were not.

Perfectly stated. There also seems to be a belief that this is it, that all MM and FP are ever going to be are a clunky web interface and 3 FPs per day.

This is a big gamble and it could fail spectacularly. I'm no market analyst on theme parks and entertainment, but I've been alive for a while and I try observe a world changing around me. Having the benefit of having sons 4 years apart, I get to experience things twice and compare. It is not just a perception that is't changing faster, it literally is.

My honest opinion is that the theme park model Disney has created to this point is not sustainable. I think Disney knows this, I think all factors point to it. Attendance is flat across the board.

Someone on here made the case that technology changes so fast that MM+ could be obsolete by the time it hits market. I agree, although it's a heck of a lot easier to scale and improve computer systems than it is to market time a 12 acre attraction.

Cars Land may be great, may continue to be a draw for years to come. My first son's inaugural trip had us constantly waiting in line for Buzz. 4 years later we walked on at will.

Said all that to say this. What Disney is trying to do makes sense to me and I believe it's reasoning is sound. Whether they succeed or not is a matter of execution, and trying to change out the wing on a plane in flight is pretty hard to do.

 

[Angel Ariel]

They don't agree on why any more than the likers agree on why because there are different factors influencing various people's response to FP+

My reasons for disliking it may not be the same as the next person's. The park hopping issue is a deal breaker for many. We have hoppers. Yes it's inconvenient, but it's really the least of my worries and not enough on its own to make me dislike the system. I also happen to dislike being so scheduled. Some folk who do and some who don't like the new system actually like planning and having the routine pretty much set in stone .... the list goes on.

There seems to be a generalization that anyone who doesn't like FP used to go tearing around the parks knocking people over to grab 20 FP's or that if you don't like it you have to have toured the parks a certain way

It is interesting to me that those who are so in favor of the new system seem to have more insight to everyone else's former park touring style than those so-called commandos did themselves. I don't need to be told what I used to do. I was there. Those critics were not.

 

[OtherScott]

You're lumping dissatifaction of FP+ with NextGen. I think the Magic Bands are great.

I was engaged with another poster about the technology. Please don't cherrypick my statements about one thing to try and refute another.

The Mid-Atlantic states got pummeled this winter. Some school districts have had 16 unscheduled snow days. If I could throw my kids in the car and drive 10 hours and get away from the gloomy, grey weather that has been going on for months I would.

But you didn't. I didn't either.

Fine. Show me the data.

How big is that faction since you claim to be more informed?

It has been reported that park attendence has increased. Has spending/ guest gone up? Has the number of hours in the park per guest gone up?

I don't know - that's sort of my whole point. I'm uninformed, I don't have numbers, I don't have demographics, I don't market research, I don't have attendance figures and if I did, I probably wouldn't have the internals on who attended.

It's why I don't make statements like "most people hate it" and "Disney is pissing off a large group of loyal guests."

What I do assert is that Disney has this information, a trillion more bits, and it knows how this arm of it's global empire fits with that arm. And from that, given the choice between Disney and an echo chamber of "remember New Coke and Windows 8," I give the benefit of doubt to the former.

Of course people couldn't agree what they don't like because there is more than ONE thing they don't like. Too much preplanning, no flexiblity, no availability, longer SB lines (which is the topic of the thread).

Since you claim to be more informed. Are you saying that the information and data the OP is incorrect? Please show me YOUR data.

I take the OPs data as correct - so now I just have to decide if wait times are increasing because of FP+, or because it snowed in Maine.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Perfectly stated. There also seems to be a belief that this is it, that all MM and FP are ever going to be are a clunky web interface and 3 FPs per day.

I for one don't believe that all FP+ is going to be is 3 FPs/day. As for the clunky web interface? Yes, I do believe we're going to be stuck with that. Disney has had slow loading, clunky, websites for years. They have not shown much improvement in that respect over the course of years, why should I believe that now it's all of a sudden going to be different?

My honest opinion is that the theme park model Disney has created to this point is not sustainable. I think Disney knows this, I think all factors point to it. Attendance is flat across the board.

If Disney spent more time introducing new rides, I highly doubt attendance would be "flat across the board". Open up a very well themed Star Wars land, and I imagine you'll have crowds equal to (if not greater than) WWoHP flocking to see it, given the huge fan base for SW.

 

[coopersmom]

Someone on here made the case that technology changes so fast that MM+ could be obsolete by the time it hits market. I agree, although it's a heck of a lot easier to scale and improve computer systems than it is to market time a 12 acre attraction.

Data doesn't back up your assertion that technology is more long lasting than physical attractions. Yes, the first opening stages of a new ride are almost always its most popular, but when Disney, or any theme park, builds an attraction, they expect it to last 20 years, minimum. History has shown that, that's certainly viable and perhaps even conservative. Disneyland still features multiple rides, in basically identical configurations, that remain popular and appeared in the park on opening day ... More than 60 years ago.

While rides may diminish in popularity, they're still operating at between 70-90 percent of rider capacity per day. Sure, opening day demand of 300 or 400 percent OVER what a ride can handle drops off, but that doesn't mean a ride is scrapped or failing.

When you develop technology systems, on the other hand, the obsolescence date is often measured in months, not years.

I'd bet my last dollar that Carsland will still be in place and welcoming guests 20 years from today. MyMagic+? Not so much.

 

[OtherScott]

I for one don't believe that all FP+ is going to be is 3 FPs/day. As for the clunky web interface? Yes, I do believe we're going to be stuck with that. Disney has had slow loading, clunky, websites for years. They have not shown much improvement in that respect over the course of years, why should I believe that now it's all of a sudden going to be different?

If Disney spent more time introducing new rides, I highly doubt attendance would be "flat across the board". Open up a very well themed Star Wars land, and I imagine you'll have crowds equal to (if not greater than) WWoHP flocking to see it, given the huge fan base for SW.

There is no doubt that new attractions get you new visitors, as well as return visitors. Disney knows this. It has the numbers from DCA. It knows what WWOHP pulls in. It has all this in greater detail than we'll ever see.

So what does this strategy decision tell you about what they see? Disney's actions are telling me that they have seen the future and it ain't pretty, and a course correction needs to be taken now.

Are they right? Beats me, but if they think they are, makes a lot more sense than riding it into the ground.

 

[OtherScott]

Data doesn't back up your assertion that technology is more long lasting than physical attractions.

1) I didn't assert that, I said it was easier to scale and improve, and 2) there's data applicable? How hard/expensive would it be to change Mission Space or Soarin' as opposed to Toy Story?

Yes, the first opening stages of a new ride are almost always its most popular, but when Disney, or any theme park, builds an attraction, they expect it to last 20 years, minimum. History has shown that, that's certainly viable and perhaps even conservative. Disneyland still features multiple rides, in basically identical configurations, that remain popular and appeared in the park on opening day ... More than 60 years ago.

And then some, which is why WDW made a second Dumbo. But there's a reason people are complaining about now having to stand in line for secondary attractions - because there wasn't much demand before.

While rides may diminish in popularity, they're still operating at between 70-90 percent of rider capacity per day. Sure, opening day demand of 300 or 400 percent OVER what a ride can handle drops off, but that doesn't mean a ride is scrapped or failing.

If you're not growing, you're dying as they say. What about increasing capacity through virtual interaction before you're even on the ride? Hell, back in the 90s that was one of the things I liked about Universal - the feeling that even while in queue I was on the ride.

When you develop technology systems, on the other hand, the obsolescence date is often measured in months, not years.

Sort of a blanket statement. Depends on what you're asking it to do. RFID's been around a long time, virtually unchanged.

I'd bet my last dollar that Carsland will still be in place and welcoming guests 20 years from today. MyMagic+? Not so much.

It's your dollar.

 

[Angel Ariel]

And then some, which is why WDW made a second Dumbo. But there's a reason people are complaining about now having to stand in line for secondary attractions - because there wasn't much demand before.

I don't think the Matterhorn or Peter Pan qualify as secondary attractions, and they certainly aren't lacking in demand.

My point being that attractions that are well done can stand the test of time without the demand for them decreasing.

 

[OtherScott]

I don't think the Matterhorn or Peter Pan qualify as secondary attractions, and they certainly aren't lacking in demand.

My point being that attractions that are well done can stand the test of time without the demand for them decreasing.

That's always the rub, isn't it?

 

[Davey Jones II]

I compared Disney rationale to the uninformed opinions on this board. You think Disney's loyal guest pool, based on historical trends, provides for sustainability going forward? Great, show me your data.

Who's talking about data? We're seeing a backlash against FP+, and it's clearly showing up in social media such as this site. If you want to call that data, that's fine.

How big is the chunk?

No one knows, including Disney. Time will tell, because the effects of this rollout will be felt over years. But investing $1.5 billion just to end up with a backlash and people cancelling their Disney trips? That can't possibly be what they had in mind.

I lost track, too. So one day I went through a 50 page complaint thread (boredom does strange things) - 32 posters who couldn't agree on whether it was bad or good...and of those who agreed it was bad, couldn't agree on why.

Everyone has their favorite reason for hating it...

If "all of this" is some level of concern and disappointment with a faction of their customer base (existing and potential), yes. They probably watch the weather, too.

"Some level of concern and disappointment" is quite an understatement which hardly begins to cover what is going on.

By the way, for all the data and stats and survey results to which they have access, something seems to get lost in the translation from raw information to decision making. Your posts would have us believe that they can do no wrong because they have this mountain of info. Yet, they have a remarkable history of blunders and clueless moves which have backfired badly. EuroDisney was a flop because they failed to realize that snobby Parisians look down on American culture. DCA 1.0 was almost a disaster because they thought they could cheap out and get away with selling a carny park to Disney fans. They've had to frantically shovel money and improvements into that park ever since.
They may yet fix the FP+ mess, but it's sure starting out as the latest debacle for Disney. Meanwhile, Universal is getting little else but praise and drooling anticipation from theme park fans wondering when Diagon Alley will be opening.

 

[flicx]

I am actually beginning to believe what we have now from this 1.5 billion dollar expenditure is pretty dang close to all there will be. I really want to see the rabbit they are gonna pull out of the hat that so many speak of when we are told be patient there is more to this, or this is just the tip of the iceberg. I actually think the tip of the iceberg just went through Disney's ship in this whole thing. That ships name would be the titanic, and the 1.5 billion is sinking with it!

 

[Mad Hattered]

Let me preface this by saying that I am not a FP+ fan.

No one knows ME and how I toured the parks. My signature might give some hints, but who knows around here anymore. I've been to WDW more times than should be legally allowed by someone never residing in the state of Florida. I KNOW this system doesn't work for my wife and I. We are not the only two people feeling this way and it's pretty obvious.

Perhaps it could best be explained with food. I knew from childhood that I hated black licorice. I loved red licorice. I still do. I tried to like black licorice because of my love for red licorice, but just couldn't stomach it. I know for a fact that I won't like fennel or anise (and if we want to be truthful, you can count Chervil or Tarragon, too) because they would remind me of black licorice. You don't have to try things to know they won't work for you. It just takes someone experienced enough to know their own palate.

So yeah....this whole thing leaves a putrid taste in my mouth...

 

[mmbl]

I for one don't believe that all FP+ is going to be is 3 FPs/day. As for the clunky web interface? Yes, I do believe we're going to be stuck with that. Disney has had slow loading, clunky, websites for years. They have not shown much improvement in that respect over the course of years, why should I believe that now it's all of a sudden going to be different? If Disney spent more time introducing new rides, I highly doubt attendance would be "flat across the board". Open up a very well themed Star Wars land, and I imagine you'll have crowds equal to (if not greater than) WWoHP flocking to see it, given the huge fan base for SW.

Amen! Every time I get on the Disney web sites, I find myself moaning about how such a big corporation can have such an awful, slow, user non-friendly web service!

 

[mmbl]

I for one don't believe that all FP+ is going to be is 3 FPs/day. As for the clunky web interface? Yes, I do believe we're going to be stuck with that. Disney has had slow loading, clunky, websites for years. They have not shown much improvement in that respect over the course of years, why should I believe that now it's all of a sudden going to be different? If Disney spent more time introducing new rides, I highly doubt attendance would be "flat across the board". Open up a very well themed Star Wars land, and I imagine you'll have crowds equal to (if not greater than) WWoHP flocking to see it, given the huge fan base for SW.

Agree with your point on opening a Star Wars land as well! Disney has always been our first choice (we do hop on a flight when the mood strikes and go frequently from Tx.- but when our AP's expire , we won't renew) but we have made a point of going to Universal for their new rides -especially Harry Potter and I'm not a 'big' or 'wild' ride fan. Disney blew this FP+. People won't plan a visit just because they can now get a FP in advance,; in fact I'm betting that newbies- even if they book a first trip- will be overwhelmed with all the now necessary planning that it make them think twice before planning a second trip. And you can bet as much as a fan as I have been, I won't be pushing it any more! We were looking at condos in Celebration as part of our retirement planning~ having second thoughts about that now.

 

[mmbl]

Let me preface this by saying that I am not a FP+ fan. No one knows ME and how I toured the parks. My signature might give some hints, but who knows around here anymore. I've been to WDW more times than should be legally allowed by someone never residing in the state of Florida. I KNOW this system doesn't work for my wife and I. We are not the only two people feeling this way and it's pretty obvious. Perhaps it could best be explained with food. I knew from childhood that I hated black licorice. I loved red licorice. I still do. I tried to like black licorice because of my love for red licorice, but just couldn't stomach it. I know for a fact that I won't like fennel or anise (and if we want to be truthful, you can count Chervil or Tarragon, too) because they would remind me of black licorice. You don't have to try things to know they won't work for you. It just takes someone experienced enough to know their own palate. So yeah....this whole thing leaves a putrid taste in my mouth...

Agreed! Except I LOVE black licorice, anise, fennel ; )

 

[Mad Hattered]

Agreed! Except I LOVE black licorice, anise, fennel ; )

Blasphemy!!!