Universal announces details on diagon alley

[mm1971]

While this is certainly true, the destination only remains viable so long as the parks remain attractive. There's a balancing act here and Disney is tipping FAR too one side.

But that won't even be open for 3-4 more years. That's a LONG time.

I hope so, but there has been no announcement, and given the timetable that they've given Avatarland, if they don't announce it this year, it's probably a safe bet to say that it won't be opening until 2019, given their current construction pace.

I hope so, too. Epcot is my favorite park in the world, but it desperately needs some love.

Just because they believe it to be best does not make it so. That's a truism from every large corporation that has ever existed. They have all made mistakes and fallen behind at one point. Disney is probably "too big to fail," but that doesn't mean that they will continue to be the clear leader forever.

No, the solution is to ADD more capacity, not restrict supply. Either that, or raise ticket prices so high that it becomes prohibitively expensive for more people.

I'm not "ripping into you," but simply making some counter-points.

And all good points. I just think Disney is looking at the attendance rising, inelastic demand (for now as you point out) since raising prices has had little effect on bookings and a very specific budget for expansion.

They will never intentionally raise prices enough to deter visitors. As I stated, I believe SeaWorld, US/IOA and Disney all pretty much match price increases to keep the status quo with maybe a little swaying here and there.

While I would like to see more attractions, bigger or new parks and some of the quality changes brought back up to old standards, until attendance or revenue/guest starts to drop there will be no push to make major (i.e....expensive) changes. Not what I want to hear as a guest, but understandable.

Well they *have* been raising ticket prices at quite a clip and it doesn't seem to have deterred people very much.

Nope, it has not. But let's all agree there is a price point where that will happen. The formula they are using is not to deter guests and I'm sure they'll never hit that point intentionally.

I'm not sure about the adding capacity one either. Because mostly people seem to be demanding more state of the art thrill rides and they tend to be quite short which means they have a minimal effect on capacity. People are back out and looking for something to do in 5 minutes.

Yes, but more of those rides at different positions in the parks would do a pretty good job of spreading the crowds. I know I'll catch heat for this, but if they actually expand and update both HS and Epcot it would help spread visits around all 4 parks. HS for one has been declining, mostly because there is less to do and that needs to change.

The Magic Kingdom for example actually has a lot of ride capacity, but is easily the most crowded of the parks.

Yup.

And in the case of shows or longer rides... those people aren't spending money so those new rides cost Disney a lot of money and may not show a huge return.

Yup.

In that respect the Avatarland concept starts to make more sense. If it spreads people out and encourages them to wander and play then they are available for shopping and eating, not standing in lines and not clogging up narrow thoroughfares...

Yup. You can bet there will be new restaurants and plenty of shops in Avatarland. Don't remember seeing those in the movie.

Easily my biggest concern about Diagon Alley (which is going to be really cool thematically) is that those narrow streets are going to be insanely crowded. Though Universal has clearly learned well from Disney because they're only adding one coaster and one "dark ride". The rest are shops and eateries.

Very good point about the narrow streets. If they want to keep to the details, there won't be much room there to move around. At least not for the first year when the crowds will be coming to see the new area.

Fishing is so expensive these days. And it is all the fault of Cabela's and their raising the prices on fishing tackle. Now Bass Pro Shop is really expanding and doing a far better job. Cabela's sucks now. I hate it.

Fishing isn't what it used to be in the 70's, tackle was cheaper, fish were more plentiful and the streams less crowded. Fish tasted better too.

And I don't believe you caught 4 fish, it couldn't have been more th 3, probably 2. I know because I know everything about fishing.

But I hate it and am going to quit because of Cabela's.

Have you tried golf?

 

[ChipnDale79]

I agree it will be hard for uni to ever catch a disney park but uni is trying to steal market share and not necessarily trying to catch dak and dhs although dak will get a pretty big boost in 2017 with their makeover

you just said the two words that people dont seem to be thinking about...market share.

You're 100% right, Universal will probably never catch DAK or DHS in attendance...but what they can do is steal market share.

That could be a big problem for Disney.

 

[ChrisFL]

you just said the two words that people dont seem to be thinking about...market share.

You're 100% right, Universal will probably never catch DAK or DHS in attendance...but what they can do is steal market share.

That could be a big problem for Disney.

Agreed, and I think they can surpass those two parks in a few years IF Disney doesn't start adding things.

The attendance number isn't as important as guest spending on average. Disney's multi-day passes as we all know are cheap for those extra days, so they need to recover that in other ways, with food and merchandise....but their merchandise has long been getting less interesting and more generic.

Why are many of MK's counter services places closed much of the year? They want people to spend money on food, but limit the choices and the lines are long?

I prefer the time when there was unique merchandise themed to each area...when we had a real magic shop and a real arcade and a real theater on Main Street....not tons of t-shirts promoting the mouse arrest...err magic bands.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Agreed, and I think they can surpass those two parks in a few years IF Disney doesn't start adding things.

The attendance number isn't as important as guest spending on average. Disney's multi-day passes as we all know are cheap for those extra days, so they need to recover that in other ways, with food and merchandise....but their merchandise has long been getting less interesting and more generic.

Why are many of MK's counter services places closed much of the year? They want people to spend money on food, but limit the choices and the lines are long?

I prefer the time when there was unique merchandise themed to each area...when we had a real magic shop and a real arcade and a real theater on Main Street....not tons of t-shirts promoting the mouse arrest...err magic bands.

this is borderline getting off topic, but one of the last trips we went, we went with a set budget of money to spend on souvenirs, we left with over half of our budget still in our pockets. Why? because we didnt find what we wanted, I'm not just going to buy something just to buy it. As the years have gone by, the souvenirs have gotten cheaper in quality and very walmartish.

I have a shirt from our honeymoon from nearly 6 years ago that hasnt shrunk and still looks great, everyone since has shrunk and faded.

Therefore I'm not spending money on tshirts when I go next time. I'll buy some for the boys, but not for me.

Not to mention we used to buy a christmas ornament from the resort we were staying at with the resort name on it, since they dont do that anymore, its one less thing for us to buy.

 

[Silock]

Perhaps I'm remembering wrongly but I thought Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios were just shy of 10 million in 2012 compared to about 8 million for Islands of Adventure and 6 million for Universal Studios.

To my mind that's a pretty big gap. I figure that Diagon Alley will probably level Universal Orlando with IOA, maybe even push things up a bit. Let's be generous and say they both get around 9 million. That would still leave them a million below the weakest of Disney's Orlando parks.

I'm not arguing that Disney should simply ignore all this and I'd actually really like it if Universal caught up because it would push Disney, I just think the scale of the threat is substantially overstated on these boards.

Well, if you look at it as Universal stealing the guests that would have gone to DHS and AK and get them to go to UO and IOA instead, you "steal" those guests from Disney. UO will get a HUGE Harry Potter bump, especially with the train requiring a park to park ticket, and thus, most likely a two day ticket for most folks.

So, IOA got something like a 30% boost in attendance because of HP (IIRC, let me know if I'm wrong). Add something a little more conservative for UO and the new expansion. Let's say 1.5 million more guests.

If you take those guests AWAY from DHS and AK, those two parks drop somewhere back into the 8 million range, and UO and IOA creep up to the 8 million range. Entirely doable, I think.

I think the only real unknown is if Disney's push to lock people in via FP+ and MM+ will keep them from losing DHS and AK visitors. It's certainly possible. But it's also possible that push some people away.

 

[Silock]

Not what I want to hear as a guest, but understandable.

Yeah. It's really disappointing, because I understand why they're not doing it. I'm just hoping they get a leader in there that's s Steve Jobs-Walt hybrid that wants to push innovation regardless of the cost, knowing that it will attract visitors far more than reputation alone.

 

[mvk]

Well, if you look at it as Universal stealing the guests that would have gone to DHS and AK and get them to go to UO and IOA instead, you "steal" those guests from Disney. UO will get a HUGE Harry Potter bump, especially with the train requiring a park to park ticket, and thus, most likely a two day ticket for most folks.

So, IOA got something like a 30% boost in attendance because of HP (IIRC, let me know if I'm wrong). Add something a little more conservative for UO and the new expansion. Let's say 1.5 million more guests.

If you take those guests AWAY from DHS and AK, those two parks drop somewhere back into the 8 million range, and UO and IOA creep up to the 8 million range. Entirely doable, I think.

I think the only real unknown is if Disney's push to lock people in via FP+ and MM+ will keep them from losing DHS and AK visitors. It's certainly possible. But it's also possible that push some people away.

DHS and AK are not going to lose 1.5M guests. DHS only lost about 100K guests (and has since gained them back and more) during the worst financial period this country has seen in about 80 years, and AK didn't lose any. They're not losing 1.5M due to a bunch of themed shops, one coaster, and a train that takes you between parks. It's silly to even think that.

 

[ChipnDale79]

DHS and AK are not going to lose 1.5M guests. DHS only lost about 100K guests (and has since gained them back and more) during the worst financial period this country has seen in about 80 years, and AK didn't lose any. They're not losing 1.5M due to a bunch of themed shops, one coaster, and a train that takes you between parks. It's silly to even think that.

Look, I'm not trying to be "that guy", but quite honestly it's that exact thinking that you've noted above that leads to big companies like Disney to lose market share or to go bankrupt.

I don't care how big of a company it is, if a company fails to recognize competition or innovation, then at some point they will lose market share.

2 perfect examples are Microsoft and GM.

At some point, one must realize that the Harry Potter franchise is the biggest literature/movie franchise in the last 30 years, I don't think something like that is going away any time soon. Universal has been very smart with this property, and the future looks very bright for them.

 

[Silock]

DHS and AK are not going to lose 1.5M guests. DHS only lost about 100K guests (and has since gained them back and more) during the worst financial period this country has seen in about 80 years, and AK didn't lose any. They're not losing 1.5M due to a bunch of themed shops, one coaster, and a train that takes you between parks. It's silly to even think that.

But it isn't JUST Harry Potter. They are adding new things and updating at a frenetic pace. Springfield, Transformers and Despicable Me is just the beginning. I'm not saying it's going to happen tomorrow, but DHS and DAK have been the same parks for years with no new additions.

I don't think it's unrealistic to think they could lose a lot of people.

 

[ChipnDale79]

But it isn't JUST Harry Potter. They are adding new things and updating at a frenetic pace. Springfield, Transformers and Despicable Me is just the beginning. I'm not saying it's going to happen tomorrow, but DHS and DAK have been the same parks for years with no new additions.

I don't think it's unrealistic to think they could lose a lot of people.

sometimes i wish there was a "like" button on here.....

 

[mvk]

Look, I'm not trying to be "that guy", but quite honestly it's that exact thinking that you've noted above that leads to big companies like Disney to lose market share or to go bankrupt.

I don't care how big of a company it is, if a company fails to recognize competition or innovation, then at some point they will lose market share.

2 perfect examples are Microsoft and GM.

At some point, one must realize that the Harry Potter franchise is the biggest literature/movie franchise in the last 30 years, I don't think something like that is going away any time soon. Universal has been very smart with this property, and the future looks very bright for them.

I don't care how big Harry Potter is, DHS and AK aren't going to suddenly drop 1.5M guests because Universal opened another section.

I don't know how its going to play out, but I'd be surprised if they get an overall bump between the two parks (IOA and UO) that is near what they did when they opened the first section. Again, not sure how its going to play out, but while the train might be a great attraction in and of itself, it might limit some guests to one day at the parks instead of two. Considering you're going to need a two park pass to ride the thing, people will likely get the two park pass, experience one park for half day, ride the train over, and do the other park the rest of the day. It might not play out that way, but I've read many many reviews of the Universal parks that describe them as half day parks.

Like I said, I'm sure they'll get a bump, but it's not going to be at the expense of 1.5M guests at DHS and AK.

 

[mvk]

But it isn't JUST Harry Potter. They are adding new things and updating at a frenetic pace. Springfield, Transformers and Despicable Me is just the beginning. I'm not saying it's going to happen tomorrow, but DHS and DAK have been the same parks for years with no new additions.

I don't think it's unrealistic to think they could lose a lot of people.

I'll assume you mean 1.5M at both parks combined, not 1.5M lost at DHS and 1.5M lost at AK. If you do mean that, it is even sillier. Those parks are not going to drop about 8% (1.5M over a combined 18M) at any point.

 

[Silock]

I don't care how big Harry Potter is, DHS and AK aren't going to suddenly drop 1.5M guests because Universal opened another section.

Who said anything about sudden?

You talked about the financial woes not affecting the studies and zoo, but at that point, Universal wasn't near what they are now. A lot has changed very recently.

And I think you're underestimating the impact of the new expansion in how it pertains to an overall vacation. When there was only the first Harry Potter, it was hard to justify getting out of the Disney bubble for just a day. But now, it's a place where a family could spend 2-3 days. If families are used to staying 4-5 days, now they have a real decision to make. Since Universal is a place where they could realistically spend half their vacation, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to see them going to Universal over DHS and DAK.

It wasn't worth one day before. But when you can stretch it to 2-3 days, it's getting to be worth it, especially because the new Universal hotels are really, really nice and offer perks of their own.

 

[Silock]

I'll assume you mean 1.5M at both parks combined, not 1.5M lost at DHS and 1.5M lost at AK. If you do mean that, it is even sillier. Those parks are not going to drop about 8% (1.5M over a combined 18M) at any point.

Combined closer to 2 million, not each.

 

[mvk]

Combined closer to 2 million, not each.

You're nuts if you think DHS and AK are going to lose a combined 2 million guests at any point in the near future.

I'll make an educated guess based upon the fact that DHS and AK both averaged a 1% increase from 2008 through 2011, then both increased 2% last year (despite neither park opening anything of note in recent times) to 10M for AK and 9.9M for DHS.

AK Attendance
2013 - 10.2M (+2%)
2014 - 10.3M (+1%)
2015 - 10.4M (+1%)
2016 - 10.5M (+1%)
2017 - 11.8M (+12.5%)

DHS Attendance
2013 - 10.1M (+2%)
2014 - 10.2M (+1%)
2015 - 10.3M (+1%)
2016 - 10.4M (+1%)
2017 - 10.7M (+2.5%)

And now an educated guess for Universal -

IOA Attendance
2013 - 8.1M (+3%)
2014 - 8.4M (+3%)
2015 - 8.5M (+2%)
2016 - 8.7M (+2%)
2017 - 8.9M (+2%)

USF Attendance
2013 - 6.4M (+3%)
2014 - 7.7M (+20%)
2015 - 8.0M (+4%)
2016 - 8.2M (+3%)
2017 - 8.4M (+2%)

Combined -
2013 AK + DHS = 20.3M
2013 IOA + USF = 14.5M

2017 AK + DHS = 22.5M
2017 IOA + USF = 17.3M

That's probably being generous to Universal, giving them a 19.3% increase in the next 5 years as opposed to giving the 2 Disney Parks a 10.8% increase over the next 5 years. But that still puts the 2 Disney Parks 5.2M ahead of the 2 Universal Parks (right now they are 5.8M ahead).

If those rates of increase continued every 5 years (basically Universal doubling the 2 Disney Parks in increase percentage), it would still take until about 2035 for those two to surpass AK and DHS.

 

[Silock]

We'll see. Again, I think you're underestimating the effect of having a real dual threat with both Universal parks as opposed to just one.

 

[ChrisFL]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/busi...-at-univerasl-orlando-20140128,0,7345702.post

 

[ChipnDale79]

You're nuts if you think DHS and AK are going to lose a combined 2 million guests at any point in the near future.

I'll make an educated guess based upon the fact that DHS and AK both averaged a 1% increase from 2008 through 2011, then both increased 2% last year (despite neither park opening anything of note in recent times) to 10M for AK and 9.9M for DHS.

AK Attendance
2013 - 10.2M (+2%)
2014 - 10.3M (+1%)
2015 - 10.4M (+1%)
2016 - 10.5M (+1%)
2017 - 11.8M (+12.5%)

DHS Attendance
2013 - 10.1M (+2%)
2014 - 10.2M (+1%)
2015 - 10.3M (+1%)
2016 - 10.4M (+1%)
2017 - 10.7M (+2.5%)

And now an educated guess for Universal -

IOA Attendance
2013 - 8.1M (+3%)
2014 - 8.4M (+3%)
2015 - 8.5M (+2%)
2016 - 8.7M (+2%)
2017 - 8.9M (+2%)

USF Attendance
2013 - 6.4M (+3%)
2014 - 7.7M (+20%)
2015 - 8.0M (+4%)
2016 - 8.2M (+3%)
2017 - 8.4M (+2%)

Combined -
2013 AK + DHS = 20.3M
2013 IOA + USF = 14.5M

2017 AK + DHS = 22.5M
2017 IOA + USF = 17.3M

That's probably being generous to Universal, giving them a 19.3% increase in the next 5 years as opposed to giving the 2 Disney Parks a 10.8% increase over the next 5 years. But that still puts the 2 Disney Parks 5.2M ahead of the 2 Universal Parks (right now they are 5.8M ahead).

If those rates of increase continued every 5 years (basically Universal doubling the 2 Disney Parks in increase percentage), it would still take until about 2035 for those two to surpass AK and DHS.

They don't have to lose 1.5 million guest to lose market share.

Effectively they can still grow every year and still lose market share to Universal, if both companies continue to go down their current paths, that most certainly can happen.

For example, DAK and DHS can continue to grow every year by not adding anything, imagine how much they would grow if they added new attractions?

Instead of growing at 200,000 guest per year, they could be growing by 400,000 a year.

I'm a huge Disney fan, I love WDW, but it isn't untouchable competition wise.

Dreamworks already does a good job competing with Disney movies, to me that says another company like Universal could very well compete against them.

I'm not saying Universal will ever surpass disney in attendance, but Universal will, and is stealing guests from WDW.

 

[mvk]

They don't have to lose 1.5 million guest to lose market share.

Effectively they can still grow every year and still lose market share to Universal, if both companies continue to go down their current paths, that most certainly can happen.

For example, DAK and DHS can continue to grow every year by not adding anything, imagine how much they would grow if they added new attractions?

Instead of growing at 200,000 guest per year, they could be growing by 400,000 a year.

I'm a huge Disney fan, I love WDW, but it isn't untouchable competition wise.

Dreamworks already does a good job competing with Disney movies, to me that says another company like Universal could very well compete against them.

I'm not saying Universal will ever surpass disney in attendance, but Universal will, and is stealing guests from WDW.

You're also comparing the two Universal Parks to the 2 least attended Disney Parks at WDW. If they can't catch the 2 lower parks, how much are they really gaining on Disney?

 

[Silock]

You're also comparing the two Universal Parks to the 2 least attended Disney Parks at WDW. If they can't catch the 2 lower parks, how much are they really gaining on Disney?

I don't think anyone has ever said that they are going to pass Disney as a whole.

But that's not really necessary for it to significantly impact Disney's bottom line. Theme park revenue is huge for them, so when you start eating in to that, it's a problem. The parks carried the company for a long time.