Tropical Storm Watch 2007 (2) Hurricane Dean

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

New one coming along.
Tropical depression Four.
Once picture is up I will post.

Edit:- Picture now up

 

[lorapinky]

thanks Obi,

keep us updated!

Fingers crossed everyone!

 

[Graeme]

Oh Goody! Wind and rain. Just what I need after a sweltering British summer.

 

[paulh]

now everyone blow
Paulh

 

[paulh]

looks like all that blowing might be working

Tropical Depression 4 emerged in the far eastern Atlantic on Monday morning, and forecasters say it likely will become the season's first hurricane by the weekend. If so, it would be named Dean.

For now, models project the system will aim toward the southern Caribbean on a path that would keep it well south of Florida. However, those predictions could contain large errors this early in the system's life, and forecasters say it could go anywhere.

At 11 a.m. Monday, the system was about 520 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, or more than 3,000 miles from the U.S. coastline. It was moving west at 21 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph.

It could become a tropical storm within 24 hours, hurricane specialist Richard Knabb of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

The system comes just as the "Cape Verde season," from mid August through October, is about to begin; that is when atmospheric conditions are ripe for the most powerful storms to form.

Both government forecasters and the Colorado State University team of Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach predicted a busier than normal season this year


Lets hope it gos well south of florida
Paulh

 

[Andy Lou & Meg]

looks like all that blowing might be working

Tropical Depression 4 emerged in the far eastern Atlantic on Monday morning, and forecasters say it likely will become the season's first hurricane by the weekend. If so, it would be named Dean.

For now, models project the system will aim toward the southern Caribbean on a path that would keep it well south of Florida. However, those predictions could contain large errors this early in the system's life, and forecasters say it could go anywhere.

At 11 a.m. Monday, the system was about 520 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, or more than 3,000 miles from the U.S. coastline. It was moving west at 21 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph.

It could become a tropical storm within 24 hours, hurricane specialist Richard Knabb of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

The system comes just as the "Cape Verde season," from mid August through October, is about to begin; that is when atmospheric conditions are ripe for the most powerful storms to form.

Both government forecasters and the Colorado State University team of Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach predicted a busier than normal season this year


Lets hope it gos well south of florida
Paulh

Fingers crossed.

 

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

Hurricane by Friday morning (US time) by the looks of it

 

[Lisash]

What did I tell you. The second we arrive a hurricane would follow TV this morning over here said would probably not make landfall here. Am hoping it stays that way

 

[Twilight Terror]

I see, so quiet season until we're due to go! Typical! I remember watching Ernesto for days, changing path, changing predicted landfall site and get stronger/die down. Nah, those things can change soooo quickly, and even 24-hours is a loooong time in hurricane time! I'm not worrying yet; I'll save that for Monday night!

 

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

The map on the first posting updates itself.
It does seem to be moving a little north than earlier

 

[Twilight Terror]

Oooooh spooky! But from that position, it could still go anywhere - do an 's' shape and miss Florida altogether; go straight through Florida directly; 'boomerang' back out to sea (u-turn style) without ever making landfall. So many difference possibilities. Like I said, I'll just sit back and keep an eye on it.

 

[islandmum]

well we're really looking forward to this .... NOT(2004 Ivan and 2005 Emily are still very fresh in our memories)! by all accounts we have a 30% chance of a direct hit, but more likely just to go north of us but we will still be getting possible Hurricane force 1 effects .... which here means a BIG problem. Spent all morning getting the boats de-rigged and ready to motor down to the mangroves on Carriacou to keep them safe if we do get hit.

Florida should not get this one at all - unless it goes totally mad and swings violently NW

its just us islandies left to deal with it - whoopee!

 

[natalielongstaff]

well we're really looking forward to this .... NOT(2004 Ivan and 2005 Emily are still very fresh in our memories)! by all accounts we have a 30% chance of a direct hit, but more likely just to go north of us but we will still be getting possible Hurricane force 1 effects .... which here means a BIG problem. Spent all morning getting the boats de-rigged and ready to motor down to the mangroves on Carriacou to keep them safe if we do get hit.

Florida should not get this one at all - unless it goes totally mad and swings violently NW

its just us islandies left to deal with it - whoopee!

i hope you all manage to stay safe !

 

[islandmum]

thanks - I'm sure we will be, its just the not knowing thats a pain, and then rushing round battening things down if we know its headed our way.

should find out on Thursday what its going to do and what it will be

still just a TD4 this morning hapily

 

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

Whoooo! "Lost" is in trouble!

Just had a earthquake on the Hawaiian islands and now Hurricane Flossie is about to hit them! (well go close by the looks of it)

 

[scottishsue]

Are we only up to 'F' then?

 

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

Are we only up to 'F' then?

Yes, in the Eastern North pacific.

Here is a list of names to be used over the next few years in both waters
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

 

[islandmum]

well its now a Tropical storm ... Dean. Just had advisory to say its faurther south than predicted and there is a north ridge holding it down. Prediction is for it to be a hurricane by Saturday with 110knot winds.

from a selfish point of view I want it to swing north - sorry you guys - but I want it to miss us, which right now we dont know if it will and where it will go. If it stays straight we'll take a direct hit so I'm looking for a NW curve to happen.

 

[florida sun]

Obi

Im not very good reading these sort of things,but I have friends right now on holiday in Barbados, is that in the path of the Storm??

 

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

Obi

Im not very good reading these sort of things,but I have friends right now on holiday in Barbados, is that in the path of the Storm??

I am sorry to say the track does look like its going near Barbados.
If you look at the map on the first posring, the string of islands running from South America up towards Puerto Rico are the Lesser Antilles. Just to theright in the middle of these is Barbados.
On the current version of the map, where the white area finishes is where Barbados is. It will by the looks of it go north of Barbados, but will come very close between 8am Friday and 8am saturday with the winds hitting the island. The Saturday "H" seems to be right on top of Guadeloupe. The "H" by the way stands for Hurricane winds.