Tropical Storm LISA (aka TD 13)

[TDC Nala]

Hurricane Tanya was the highest they got in the alphabet, late October 1995.

looks like Lisa has decided not to follow Karl north and is going west instead.

 

[HumanCookie]

LISA wiil do the IVAN route, make a field goal between Yukutan and Cuba then make a landfall thru the gulf.

 

[adelle]

Does the forcast look like Lisa will interfer with the October 2nd cruise? I don't mind getting stuck on the ship. I just want to get on the ship!!!
I don't know how to interpret the lat and long info and can't tell when or where these storms are headed.
Thanks,
Adelle

 

[CM_Mom]

Adelle, if you're interested in the Longitude and Latitude stuff, you can print out a map if you scroll down to the bottom of the page on Tropical Prediction Center . They have a pdf file that you can print out. Choose the Western Atlantic. Then you can track the storm on the grid.

As for the Oct 2 sailing. It's too early to tell but it doesn't sound like they're too concerned about Lisa becoming a Major storm at this time. At the speed she's currently moving - if she stays moving in the same direction, I would hazzard a guess that the closest Lisa could get to Florida by Oct 2 would be Puerto Rico.

Hopefully, she'll make a turn to the north and follow KARL to nowhere.

Have fun trip. Wish I were going with you.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT33 KNHC 210833
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE SEP 21 2004

...CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION TO WEST...

...SMALL IN SIZE LISA MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1005
MILES...1615 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.0 N... 38.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

5 AM Discussion

WTNT43 KNHC 210853
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

LISA CONTINUES UNDER NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM
KARL..WITH THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VERY COLD
CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM
SAB...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. LISA IS EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HURRICANE KARL THROUGH LISA TO A DISTURBANCE
CENTERED NEAR 9.5N31W. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SEEN NORTHEAST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SOUTHWEST OF IT.
THERE SEEM TO BE THREE POTENTIAL TRACK OPTIONS FOR LISA. FIRST...A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION AS KARL MOVES AWAY AND
RIDGING DEVELOPS NORTH OF LISA. THIS IS FAVORED BY THE NHC98.
SECOND...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN THE WAKE OF KARL.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET. FINALLY...A TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST DEVELOPS. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS WESTWARD MOTION AS THERE IS CURRENTLY NO OBVIOUS SIGN THAT
EITHER OF THE OTHER SCENARIOS ARE BEGINNING. ONE SMALL CHANGE IS
TO INTRODUCE A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION AFTER 96 HR...AS LISA WOULD BE
APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BY THAT TIME.
THIS IS ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. LISA IS A SMALL
SYSTEM BETWEEN TWO LARGER ONES...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT
COULD GET SWALLOWED...PARTICULARLY BY THE DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IF THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN... LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
IN 48-72 HR...WHICH COULD CONSIDERABLY DAMAGE LISA. THE SHIPS AND
GFDL BOTH SLOWLY STRENGTHEN LISA IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CHANCE LISA MIGHT NOT SURVIVE FOR 120 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 14.0N 38.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 14.3N 40.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.9N 42.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.4N 43.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 15.8N 45.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 47.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 16.1N 50.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 51.5W 65 KT

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT33 KNHC 212028
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE SEP 21 2004

...LISA REMAINS A COMPACT TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1090
MILES...1760 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF LISA...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 40.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT33 KNHC 230854
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 23 2004

...LISA DRIFTING WESTWARD...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1180
MILES...1895 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LISA IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N... 41.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

5 AM Discussion

WTNT43 KNHC 230832
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

LISA IS CONTINUING TO MERGE WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD A FEW HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE STORM IS PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THIS COMBINED SYSTEM IS NOW BEING PRODUCED BY THE
CIRCULATION OF LISA... AND NOT THE DISTURBANCE. BASED ON DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. LISA'S
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED BY NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE KARL. AS
KARL MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD...ITS INFLUENCE ON LISA WILL DIMINISH.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN
WITHIN A DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER LISA SLOWLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 50W IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 13.2N 41.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 13.3N 41.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 13.4N 42.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 13.6N 43.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 14.2N 44.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 45.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 19.0N 47.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 21.5N 48.0W 70 KT