Tropical Storm Chantal...DONE.

[JimMIA]

There is a tropical storm out there. Chantal is currently well east of the Leeward Islands, but she's moving at 26 MPH, so she will influence Florida weather starting on Friday or Saturday.

The current forecast track calls for Chantal to pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti, (hopefully) over the mountainous eastern end of Cuba, and then up through the central Bahamas.

By Saturday afternoon, the current track forecasts Chantal to be a tropical depression centered in the area of Freeport in the northern Bahamas, east of Ft. Lauderdale, FL. A tropical depression will produce widespread heavy rain and some winds which will affect the lower east coast of Florida.

The forecast track does not yet project beyond Saturday afternoon, but the computer models show the system possibly turning west and coming ashore along the central east coast. If that, in fact, happens Chantal will affect Vero Beach and probably Walt Disney World on Saturday and Sunday.

It doesn't look like Chantal threatens any more than some rainy weather, but these systems are unpredictable and should be watched. In particular, folks traveling to or from Orlando this weekend should pay close attention to this system. If tropical storm force winds threaten Orlando (not currently forecast) airlines may be forced to reposition aircraft and alter flight schedules.

 

[murphy7573]

Good thing I don't live in Miami.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I was in South Florida for Andrea. What was the B storm? I missed that one.

 

[RAS3CAL]

My family and I are scheduled for a 6am flight Sunday morning from Philadelphia to Orlando. Hoping that Chantal doesn't change our plans

 

[JimMIA]

There are two main changes in the forecast track for Chantal this morning.

The first is that the track has been revised very slightly to the right (east), meaning that the storm is expected to pass directly over Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti), but will likely miss eastern Cuba. Eastern Cuba is very mountainous and usually really knocks storm intensity down, sometimes breaking storms up entirely. That shift also moves the track for the weekend more to the east, with the center of the system tending to pass along the eastern portion of the Bahamas. That's good for South Florida. Of course that could change.

The second change is the intensity is projected to be greater, with Chantal retaining tropical storm strength throughout the weekend. Yesterday's forecast projected reduction to tropical depression strength (<39 MPH winds).

One thing to watch is the movement on Sunday. The Sunday 2 AM position is a slight nudge to the left, closer to Florida. That little movement could be the beginning of a major move to the NW, or even due west as the steering influences change. For that reason, anyone going to WDW or Vero on the weekend should pay close attention.

This system is still moving very rapidly (26 MPH). As it enters the Bahamas, however, the system is expected to slow down. Slowing down over warm waters will allow the storm to maintain intensity (or intensify) and the slower it moves on Friday-Saturday, the more likely a pronounced and earlier sharp left turn toward Central Florida becomes on Sunday. Way too early to tell at this point.

 

[JimMIA]

Good thing I don't live in Miami.

Miami will be fine. Be thankful you don't live in Haiti.

 

[com_op_2000]

I was in South Florida for Andrea. What was the B storm? I missed that one.

Barry:
Tropical Storm Barry was a weak and short-lived tropical cyclone that brought heavy rains to parts of Central America and Mexico in June 2013. Barry originated from a tropical wave that developed in the southern Caribbean Sea. The wave tracked northwestward and began to develop in slightly favorable conditions. On June 17, the disturbance was upgraded to Tropical Depression Two by the National Hurricane Center. Due to its close proximity to land, the system failed to intensify before crossing the southern Yucatán Peninsula. The depression emerged over the Bay of Campeche late on June 18 and became increasingly organized. During the afternoon of June 19, data from Hurricane Hunters revealed the system had intensified into a tropical storm. The newly named Barry attained peak winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) before making landfall in Veracruz, Mexico on June 20. Once onshore, the storm quickly weakened and degenerated into a remnant low that night.

Areas from northern Nicaragua to South-Central Mexico experienced heavy rains from the storm, with notable flooding occurring in many areas. Swollen rivers displaced thousands in Veracruz and killed two people. In El Salvador, one person was left missing by floods as well

 

[AmyB2006]

Good thing I don't live in Miami.

Meh... just a TS. We go out and party down here in those.

 

[LauraLea]

Meh... just a TS. We go out and party down here in those.

Yes, a TS makes us happy. We need all the rain we can get down here, but without the strong winds of a severe TS or hurricane.

Laura

 

[com_op_2000]

Yes, a TS makes us happy. We need all the rain we can get down here, but without the strong winds of a severe TS or hurricane.

Laura

Floridian's have all seen afternoon thunder storms stonger than some TSs.

 

[JimMIA]

Chantal is a bit of a mystery this morning. The National Hurricane Center can't quite see the storm, but they know it is there from hurricane hunter aircraft information so they are continuing to call it a tropical storm.

The center of circulation is uncertain. NHC shows it somewhat south of Hispaniola but some of the satellite imagery looks like it might be right at the southern tip of the island near the DR-Haiti border. That area is very mountainous, so obviously the closer it is to land, the more the mountains will knock the intensity down.

The system is also being hurt by strong shearing winds, and the NHC has been on the verge of calling it dissipated for the last 18 hours or so. However, this system has survived despite roaring along at almost 30 MPH, plus constant strong shear.

The official forecast is for the system to continue westward, then turn north, crossing central Cuba and south and central Florida as a tropical depression. If that forecast plays out, there shouldn't be much effect on Florida except a lot of rain on Friday and Saturday.

 

[JimMIA]

The 5 PM NHC advisory indicates that Chantal no longer has identifiable circulation and the system has apparently dissipated into a tropical wave. Conditions do not appear favorable for this system to regenerate.

The wave is expected to move northward across Cuba and Florida and rainy, windy conditions from the remnants of Chantal will affect Florida on Friday and Saturday.

 

[k3chantal]

There is a tropical storm out there. Chantal is currently well east of the Leeward Islands, but she's moving at 26 MPH, so she will influence Florida weather starting on Friday or Saturday.

The current forecast track calls for Chantal to pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti, (hopefully) over the mountainous eastern end of Cuba, and then up through the central Bahamas.

By Saturday afternoon, the current track forecasts Chantal to be a tropical depression centered in the area of Freeport in the northern Bahamas, east of Ft. Lauderdale, FL. A tropical depression will produce widespread heavy rain and some winds which will affect the lower east coast of Florida.

The forecast track does not yet project beyond Saturday afternoon, but the computer models show the system possibly turning west and coming ashore along the central east coast. If that, in fact, happens Chantal will affect Vero Beach and probably Walt Disney World on Saturday and Sunday.

It doesn't look like Chantal threatens any more than some rainy weather, but these systems are unpredictable and should be watched. In particular, folks traveling to or from Orlando this weekend should pay close attention to this system. If tropical storm force winds threaten Orlando (not currently forecast) airlines may be forced to reposition aircraft and alter flight schedules.

I really wish I was there! Not just my namesake.