Tropical Depression/Storm Aug 3-4, 2024

ucf_knight

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We are AP's and were planning on coming up this weekend. With the storm looking like it will be close to the parks on Sunday morning does Disney close the parks for named storms only or would a tropical depression also close the parks?
 
I would be surprised if the parks are closed for a tropical depression - the water parks I could see being closed maybe.

the models I am looking at this morning don't show it near orlando either.
 
I would be surprised if the parks are closed for a tropical depression - the water parks I could see being closed maybe.

the models I am looking at this morning don't show it near orlando either.
Two of my local news channels (I live near Orlando) are showing landfall near Ft Myers with the center coming right over Orlando (similar track to Hurricane Charley, if you remember that storm). It’s still too early to know for sure. I am packing up in case I need to evacuate, since it is possible that the storm could intensify quickly once it enters the Gulf.

That being said, right now they say the biggest impact is going to be rain, and Disney doesn’t typically close for a rain event. I would encourage everyone who is going to the parks on Sunday/Monday to wear shoes that you can wade through water with, since there are many areas in the parks that don’t drain well. I have been in ankle deep water at Epcot during a regular summer storm.
 

Theme parks don't automatically close for a named storm. I've never seen them close for a depression, and they don't always close for Tropical Storms (we've been there during a couple of those). Of course, anything can change, but looking at the forecast, the likelihood of the parks closing this weekend is probably small. Like others have said, though, bring ponchos and waterproof shoes.
 
I was at Disney World when Ian hit. If you don't have a reservation for a place to stay by now you may not be able to get a room there, unless you live in an evacuation area anyway.
 
What about Disney cruises would they still depart? Would the ocean be really rough?
The only way they won't depart is if the port has to close. The system is hundreds of miles away, hasn't even formed into a depression yet, and is likely to just be a rainmaker over peninsular Florida, so the cruise ships will just alter course and change intineries as necessary.
 
I’m in Orlando at a conference and paying close attention because I check out on Sunday. Watched WESH News this morning. The forecaster didn’t seem to know what to say except rain and wind on Sunday with the worst of it being around check out time.

But that will probably change a bit with each update.

I also pay attention to Denis Phillips with ABC action news. He posted this, this morning on his Facebook page.

“Friday Tropical Thoughts. I think we finally have a pretty good handle on what's going to happen with our "Stalking Turtle" aka Debby.

1. I suspect the NHC puts us in a Tropical Storm Warning later today or tonight. They will likely issue a Potential Tropical Cyclone advisory. This allows them to put up warnings and offer a track.

2. Speaking of track, it looks like what likely will be Debby will make landfall somewhere between Pinellas and Levy County on Sunday.

3. The storm should either be a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm at that time. That is really the only question mark left on the table. The longer it stays over water, the stronger it could become. So, the sooner the landfall the better.

4. Impacts? Winds between 40 and 50 mph seem likely...with higher gusts. That sounds about like one of our afternoon thunderstorms, right? We will also be in the Northeast part of the storm so a "Tornado Watch" on Sunday is also possible.

5. Surge. This will be a decent-sized system that is getting stronger at landfall. There is a chance of some coastal flooding and water rise on Sunday. The water will already be higher (new moon) on Sunday so areas that are prone to flooding with storms should keep a close eye on this and plan accordingly.

6. Lots of people are asking if this could become a hurricane. Look, anything is possible, but I'm not playing the "what if" game. That spreads misinformation and its hard enough to get the forecast right with these ragged developing storms. At this point, I'm predicting a Tropical Storm with winds of 40 to 50 mph on Sunday. If it changes, you know we'll be updating 24/7 and let you know.

7. It doesn't look like it will stall so the scenario of this thing sitting in Florida for several days no longer looks like its going to happen. Rainfall of 4-6" seems likely.

8. Let's recap. Timing is late Saturday through early Monday...from our Southern counties to our Northern counties. This IS going to cut across the state so inland areas will also get wind. A Tropical Storm Warning seems likely later today as we see a PTC issued from the NHC.

9. Nothing to freak out about. We get 40 to 50 mph winds many times in the Summer. There could be some isolated power outages. Wind-wise, it's an afternoon thunderstorm that will last for several hours. But as always, for folks who flood along the coast, high tide could bring a bit of water as well. Water is always the trickiest part of the forecast because it depends on the angle the storm approaches our area of who sees the push and who doesn't.

10. I don't know if your flight is canceled and yes, it's going to rain at Disney. (That should cover 95% of the questions I get) We got this folks. This is probably good practice for what's on the way later this season. Rule #7. (Don't freak out unless I'm freaking out, we're fine) We live in Florida, this goes with the territory.”
 
What about Disney cruises would they still depart? Would the ocean be really rough?
It depends on when the cruise is departing, which port it's departing from, and what the weather system does between now and then. DCL only has cruises departing from PC and FLL out of Florida, and both of those ports are on the other side of the state from where this storm is currently predicted to make landfall. Of course, the bigger the storm is, the more widespread the impact. Breaking it down: The Wish departs from Port Canaveral today and Monday. Today is obviously fine, and Monday SHOULD be fine too if the system does when the latest forecast says it's going to do. Sunday's sailing on the Fantasy...I'd keep an eye on that. FLL is not forecasted to be heavily impacted by the storm, so tomorrow's sailing on the Magic will probably be fine too. Biggest piece of advice: If you're on one of these sailings, keep an eye on it. DCL will e-mail you and post on its website if your cruise is impacted.
 
I’m in Orlando at a conference and paying close attention because I check out on Sunday. Watched WESH News this morning. The forecaster didn’t seem to know what to say except rain and wind on Sunday with the worst of it being around check out time.

But that will probably change a bit with each update.

I also pay attention to Denis Phillips with ABC action news. He posted this, this morning on his Facebook page.

“Friday Tropical Thoughts. I think we finally have a pretty good handle on what's going to happen with our "Stalking Turtle" aka Debby.

1. I suspect the NHC puts us in a Tropical Storm Warning later today or tonight. They will likely issue a Potential Tropical Cyclone advisory. This allows them to put up warnings and offer a track.

2. Speaking of track, it looks like what likely will be Debby will make landfall somewhere between Pinellas and Levy County on Sunday.

3. The storm should either be a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm at that time. That is really the only question mark left on the table. The longer it stays over water, the stronger it could become. So, the sooner the landfall the better.

4. Impacts? Winds between 40 and 50 mph seem likely...with higher gusts. That sounds about like one of our afternoon thunderstorms, right? We will also be in the Northeast part of the storm so a "Tornado Watch" on Sunday is also possible.

5. Surge. This will be a decent-sized system that is getting stronger at landfall. There is a chance of some coastal flooding and water rise on Sunday. The water will already be higher (new moon) on Sunday so areas that are prone to flooding with storms should keep a close eye on this and plan accordingly.

6. Lots of people are asking if this could become a hurricane. Look, anything is possible, but I'm not playing the "what if" game. That spreads misinformation and its hard enough to get the forecast right with these ragged developing storms. At this point, I'm predicting a Tropical Storm with winds of 40 to 50 mph on Sunday. If it changes, you know we'll be updating 24/7 and let you know.

7. It doesn't look like it will stall so the scenario of this thing sitting in Florida for several days no longer looks like its going to happen. Rainfall of 4-6" seems likely.

8. Let's recap. Timing is late Saturday through early Monday...from our Southern counties to our Northern counties. This IS going to cut across the state so inland areas will also get wind. A Tropical Storm Warning seems likely later today as we see a PTC issued from the NHC.

9. Nothing to freak out about. We get 40 to 50 mph winds many times in the Summer. There could be some isolated power outages. Wind-wise, it's an afternoon thunderstorm that will last for several hours. But as always, for folks who flood along the coast, high tide could bring a bit of water as well. Water is always the trickiest part of the forecast because it depends on the angle the storm approaches our area of who sees the push and who doesn't.

10. I don't know if your flight is canceled and yes, it's going to rain at Disney. (That should cover 95% of the questions I get) We got this folks. This is probably good practice for what's on the way later this season. Rule #7. (Don't freak out unless I'm freaking out, we're fine) We live in Florida, this goes with the territory.”
@lovethattink - Thanks for your post. My Inside Out 2 Anxiety is full speed mode right now, this has helped slow it down. We are leaving on Thursday this upcoming week, I'm not concerned about being down there during a Tropical Storm or Hurricane, my worry is getting there if air travel is disrupted. I've always been a fan of Southwest Airlines, but they'll strand or cancel, leaving everyone on their own. To be safe, we rented a One-Way minivan that we could cancel at the last minute, it's a nice loooong drive from Western NY.
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Earlier this week I changed my flight from Sunday morning to Saturday morning as a gamble to avoid the storm on possible cancelations. I am happy I did not looking at the current forecast.
Out first park day is Monday, hopefully by them its out of the area.
 
My check out day is this Sunday. Concerned about the timing. Do I have to drive back home to Atlanta on Saturday or is leaving around 6am on Sunday be okay. Staying at WL so it would be a big cash hit if I left tomorrow and had to eat the cost.
 
My check out day is this Sunday. Concerned about the timing. Do I have to drive back home to Atlanta on Saturday or is leaving around 6am on Sunday be okay. Staying at WL so it would be a big cash hit if I left tomorrow and had to eat the cost.
It’s a tough call. My son has a dance Saturday night. I’m contemplating checking out Saturday night after the dance. Though if it’s raining, I’d rather drive through rain in daylight than nighttime.
 
Honestly Florida has regular rain storms with winds that strong on a pretty normal basis. No locals are panicking over a tropical depression and not even a tropical storm. The parks might close for a tropical storm but I highly doubt for just a depression.
 
My flight is Monday morning out of Philly. Looks like I might be ok with flight going? Keeping fingers crossed because I already postponed this trip once (originally scheduled in June) but had an emergency I had to take care of.
 
I know it's early and I'm certainly not panicking at all but I am considering changing my flight out from DC to MCO to a later time on Sunday. I am currently booked on a 6am flight but can change to a 1pm if you think the storm may be further away at the later time.
I realize that no one really knows but just looking for a historical best guest based on the current models.

Thanks so much!
 
I know it's early and I'm certainly not panicking at all but I am considering changing my flight out from DC to MCO to a later time on Sunday. I am currently booked on a 6am flight but can change to a 1pm if you think the storm may be further away at the later time.
I realize that no one really knows but just looking for a historical best guest based on the current models.

Thanks so much!
The big problem is most of the models only work well with a system that has formed, so these blobs don't really give much of a consensus. That being said, the airports don't typically close with tropical storm force winds, but there may be a ground stop (happens with T-storms occasionally). Planes will fly around the system too. Timing this far out is tough. maybe the 5:00 advisory will have new info, but they don't update the models that frequently.
 





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