Tracking Cruising Restart: News and Updates

Intr3pid

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 2, 2018
Well this sux.
CDC level 4 = DCL will return to US port if one (1) case shows up onboard.
Imagine going on a 14-night or even a 7-night and on day#2 someone gets the bug and ship has to return to port and the entire itinerary is cancelled.
It's 99% likely there will be at least 1 Covid-related case onboard based on a ship with 4000 ppl.
Does the CDC not realize that even with vaccines being 99% effective, that's 40 ppl statistically likely to get the virus?
Gosh this is a huge buzzkill.

This is incorrect.

CDC hasn't defined a 'one case' threshold anywhere. It's a threshold based on each ship's occupancy and size, and we won't know anything about it until the ship get its certificate.
 

DisneYE

DIS Veteran
Joined
Oct 7, 2013
This is incorrect.

CDC hasn't defined a 'one case' threshold anywhere. It's a threshold based on each ship's occupancy and size, and we won't know anything about it until the ship get its certificate.
Duly noted. My bad.
The article added the threshold arbitrarily but the CDC link to the level 4 advisory on it doesn't mention it.
I'm glad it's fake news.
 

o&smom

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 23, 2011
I think that might actually be the point. CDC is effectively stopping cruises without putting in a new no sail order
Felt the same way when I read this yesterday. How could a cruise company take the risk of having to cancel so many cruises that may only sail for a few days and have to return.
 

mmackeymouse

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 15, 2008
Well this sux.
CDC level 4 = DCL will return to US port if one (1) case shows up onboard.
Imagine going on a 14-night or even a 7-night and on day#2 someone gets the bug and ship has to return to port and the entire itinerary is cancelled.
It's 99% likely there will be at least 1 Covid-related case onboard based on a ship with 4000 ppl.
Does the CDC not realize that even with vaccines being 99% effective, that's 40 ppl statistically likely to get the virus?
Gosh this is a huge buzzkill.

So, first of all, that's not the way vaccine efficacy works.

I want to dispel some of the math in regards to the efficacy rate. People hear 95% efficacy, and think that means 5% of any particular group of people will get the virus, even with a vaccine. This is NOT the case.

They think if 1,000 vaccinated people are on board the ship, 50 people could contract the virus. Again, this is NOT the case.

During the Pfizer trials, there were approximately 21K people in both the trial and the control groups. In the vaccinated group, of the 21K people, 8 people contracted the virus. Clearly 8 is not 5% of 21,000 people.

What it means is that whatever a person's chance is, of contracting the virus....it is reduced by 95%. The control groups, whether Pfizer or Moderna, places the contraction rate at somewhere around 1%, Pfizer a little lower, Moderna a little higher, but 1% is a good average. Now...the argument could be made that it may be a little higher than 1%. In certain pockets of people, it might be higher. So...the point is that if the chance, without a vaccine, is 1%, it reduces the chance of getting it by 95% (of that 1%)

So, if Pfizer's control group rate is 0.77%, 5% of that is 0.000385%. If you take that number times the 21K in the trial group, it comes out to....8 people.

Now, like I said, the argument could be made that 1% is a little low. And, the argument could definitely be made that in a cruise ship setting, the chances of unvaccinated people spreading the virus is higher, maybe even much higher than 1%. That said, studies are showing, though not proven yet, that not only does the vaccine reduce one's chance of contracting the vaccine, it also highly reduces the transmissibility of it, even if someone DOES get the virus. So, if someone does get the virus, on a fully vaccinated (or at least adults) ship ...the chances are small that they will actually pass it on, and it shouldn't lead to some catastrophic outbreak.
So, hopefully 1 isn't the threshold. Because if they require vaccinations to sail, even if one person gets the virus somehow...the chances that they pass it on to other people, much less many other people, would be astronomically small. That would mean that a vaccinated person transmitted the virus, which is a very small chance of that happening, and it would also mean a subsequent vaccinated person to contract the virus, which is also a very small chance of happening.
 

Intr3pid

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 2, 2018
MSC is now working with the Greek government to include some of the Greek ports in its sailing itineraries.


They continue to press the right buttons with the individual EU countries to get cruising started. If they do pull this one off, it will increase the chances of other cruise lines sailing too in Europe come summer.
 

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  • Intr3pid

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 2, 2018
    Looks like Cozumel would still prefer the itinerary to start elsewhere - such as in Havana. I doubt the airport can handle thousands of cruise passengers passing through it.

    That said, several European cruise lines offer fly-in cruises where they will charter a plane to fly guests in from major airports. I know Cancun gets direct flights from Europe.

    RCL is planning to have their southern Caribbean cruises start from Barbados next January. We might see this approach get more popular if CDC continues to tread cautiously.

     

    brentm77

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 17, 2013
    From the Port Canaveral newsletter, just posted today:

    The CDC is currently in the process of conducting an internal review of their drafted technical guidance for the cruise lines. We are encouraged that this review process is underway, as this guidance is very important and fundamentally necessary for our cruise partners to formalize their return to service plans, and submit them to the CDC for approval.

    Sounds like there may be changes to CDC guidelines in the future. I hope they take a realistic approach that allows cruising to resume sooner rather than later.
     

    Intr3pid

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 2, 2018
    NCL becomes the first of the mainstream cruise lines to extend the FCC validity to December 31, 2022. Just got an announcement email in the inbox.

    Expect others to follow suit soon.
     
  • Intr3pid

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 2, 2018
    Carnival CEO feels that "most, if not all, of its fleet will be in action by the end of this year". He goes on to add:
    I think there’s a really high probability that all of them will be back by early next year if things continue to progress the way they have.”

    That sounds somewhat optimistic - as he has been trying to raise $3.5 billion in new equity this week and presumably wants to help the stock price - but it still gives me hope of at least a holiday cruise somewhere in December!
     

    Intr3pid

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 2, 2018
    RCL doesn't want to cancel the 2021 Alaska and Canada cruises yet!


    Some noteworthy quotes:
    1. "The cruise line says it is working through potential options with the Government of Canada and the USA and the Cruise Line International Association (CLIA)."
    2. Beyond a modification to the PVSA, "options include vessels clearing into Canadian ports electronically, as is the standard in many ports these days, without contact between anyone onboard and ashore. "

    Re: #2, a Seattle departure would allow rolling the ship into, say, the port of Victoria, clearing the customs and other procedures electronically, and then moving on to the Alaskan waters. This would register as a foreign port stop (though not something the long lost spirit of the PVSA would have given its blessing).

    The Canadian government will have to be - figuratively - on board with this process.
     

    Intr3pid

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 2, 2018
    Carnival CEO feels that "most, if not all, of its fleet will be in action by the end of this year". He goes on to add:



    That sounds somewhat optimistic - as he has been trying to raise $3.5 billion in new equity this week and presumably wants to help the stock price - but it still gives me hope of at least a holiday cruise somewhere in December!
    And it didn't take long.

    Feb 17: Carnival CEO floats his optimistic back-in-action prediction.
    Feb 18-21: Stock jumps
    ...
    Feb 22: Carnival announces sale of shares at the elevated prices.

     

    Intr3pid

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 2, 2018
    More green shoots out of Europe.

    Another MSC ship is going live in the Mediterranean. May 1 will be the first day of sailing for the MSC Seaside - which has previously operated out of Miami too.

     

    mevelandry

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 22, 2013
    They have finally started vaccination of the general public (70 to 85 years old+, depending on the region) in our Province in Canada...

    At this point, I am starting to think that the folliage cruise season (Canada & New England) might be salvaged.

    *fingers crossed*
     

    brentm77

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 17, 2013
    Edit: I just saw this was mentioned in the vaccine thread - forgive the double post.

    R.C. will be launching it's new ship from Israel, traveling to Greece. Everyone on the ship, including crew, will be vaccinated.

    Royal Caribbean will be 'first' to offer 'fully vaccinated' cruise with sailings starting in Israel

    Royal Caribbean's newest ship "Odyssey of the Seas" is set to debut in May with departures from Israel with all passengers and crew over the age of 16 vaccinated.

    "In conjunction with Israel’s health and tourism authorities, Royal Caribbean will be the first to offer fully vaccinated sailings, where both crew and guests above the age of 16 will be vaccinated against COVID-19," the cruise line said in a statement posted to its website.
     
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    brentm77

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 17, 2013
    Forgive me if someone has posted Norwegian's recent comments on what resuming cruising will look like for them. It will start 90 days after they receive the green light from the CDC. The process has been harder than expected. But the part that surprised me is the line saying it could be a few days to a few weeks away from getting the green light. Once started, they will sail at 50% capacity and expect to introduce one ship a week. They could have all ships operational by the end of the year if they start sailing by June or July.


    Update: See my correction below on what "green light" actually means - that is just the start of testing.
     
    Last edited:

    sabrecmc

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 31, 2009
    Interesting that he says the CDC greenlight could be a few days or a few weeks away. That's a lot sooner than what I would have thought.
     





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