TP and personalized plans wait times

[Hook326]

I just started creating personalized touring plans on tp. The wait times it’s showing me are really low even for the afternoon. While I would love to believe it, I’m going Dec 15-19 and think it’s a bit too good to be true. What have been your experiences with tp wait times on personalized plans? Did they end up being accurate?Will wait times adjust the closer to the trip we get? Thanks for any input!

 

[chris benton]

Scarily accurate for our entire trip. A few times, the posted wait times of attractions on the signs in the park changed (for the better) and matched TP right after we got in line. Let that sink in.

I'm sure there will be ppl with different experiences than mine. But TP pretty much nailed it for the whole trip. I think they are still low for Pandora because historical data is probably not up to snuff.

Also, Touring Plans has a forum / message board as well. Plenty of experts (and random posters) there will help you out.

Dec 15-19 seems like it would be just before school's out?

 

[hllb]

I never tracked it as at a level to compare, but TP does - andthey publish it. They are very open, showing reality vs. their predictions. I agree that Pandora won’t be accurate for a while due to lack of historical data. I’ve also noticed that it’s had more misses than typical lately, which is probably a good part due to Irma reschedules.

We’ve used TP twice before and only one day did we feel like it was busier than they predicted.

 

[Hook326]

Scarily accurate for our entire trip. A few times, the posted wait times of attractions on the signs in the park changed (for the better) and matched TP right after we got in line. Let that sink in.

I'm sure there will be ppl with different experiences than mine. But TP pretty much nailed it for the whole trip. I think they are still low for Pandora because historical data is probably not up to snuff.

Also, Touring Plans has a forum / message board as well. Plenty of experts (and random posters) there will help you out.

Dec 15-19 seems like it would be just before school's out?

I hope it’s scarily accurate for us too! And yes, right before school gets out so reason to hope. There is just a lot of 4-8 minute waits for rides which would be awesome but it’ll be okay if longer. I’ll check out the forum. Thanks for your input

I never tracked it as at a level to compare, but TP does - andthey publish it. They are very open, showing reality vs. their predictions. I agree that Pandora won’t be accurate for a while due to lack of historical data. I’ve also noticed that it’s had more misses than typical lately, which is probably a good part due to Irma reschedules.

We’ve used TP twice before and only one day did we feel like it was busier than they predicted.

Thanks for your feedback! I hope they’re right!

 

[srwarden1928]

For the most part, TP is accurate. They may be a minute or so short on one ride and a minute or so long on another, but it balances out. As PP said, they can be well off on Pandora standby, although I found them to be pretty accurate for the wait time for Pandora FP. Enjoy your short waits.

 

[lentesta]

Thanks for using the site, @Hook326.

TP shows how well its predictions matched up with what actually happened, at the individual ride level, for any ride on any day for the past few years. Here's Space Mountain for yesterday, for example.

My suggestion is to ask TP to update your plan after you've done the first step in the plan in the park. TP will start updating its wait-time models about 5 minutes after the park opens. In a park like the Magic Kingdom, with a few dozen rides, there's bound to be some ride somewhere that had something unusual happen to start the day. Once the wait times start reflecting that and TP starts updating the predictions, the wait estimates get more accurate.

 

[Happy_2_B]

The wait times it’s showing me are really low even for the afternoon. While I would love to believe it, I’m going Dec 15-19 and think it’s a bit too good to be true.

It's a good time to go- have been there during this time period a few times myself (and will be doing a short trip from the 13th-18th this year as well). With that said, I have been tracking their crowd calendar since we are heading over in a couple of weeks- and crowds on some days have been higher than predicted- sometimes MUCH higher. This happens- Disney is great at marketing- so offers a lot of good deals during what have been historically slower times of the year which results in higher crowds. You 'might' notice a bit of a surge in crowd levels toward the end of the trip- but the truly 'insane' crowds won't start until your stay is over. Also, use the Lines app while in the parks- part of your subscription.

 

[nighttowll]

I'd look at a few dates from around the same time last year. Compare what they predicted for last year, what actually happened, and then what they are predicting for this year.

It can always be off, but for instance, if they predicted a 5 minute wait last year, and the actual wait ended up being 7, and they are predicting 8 this year. It's probably going to be pretty close.

 

[Hook326]

Thanks for using the site, @Hook326.

TP shows how well its predictions matched up with what actually happened, at the individual ride level, for any ride on any day for the past few years. Here's Space Mountain for yesterday, for example.

My suggestion is to ask TP to update your plan after you've done the first step in the plan in the park. TP will start updating its wait-time models about 5 minutes after the park opens. In a park like the Magic Kingdom, with a few dozen rides, there's bound to be some ride somewhere that had something unusual happen to start the day. Once the wait times start reflecting that and TP starts updating the predictions, the wait estimates get more accurate.

Thank you for the tips! I will def do that in park. Thank you for your site btw! It’s been very helpful