Touring Plans Lowered Crowd Dates - Why?

[Frozen2014]

We're deciding between two weeks in August to come to DL. One is the week of Aug 15th and the other is the last week in August. Up until now, Touring Plans had the week of Aug 15th marked with crowd numbers of 5, 6 and 7 depending on the crowd/park. We'd go to the parks either Mon-Thurs or Tues-Fri. so not weekends.

Today I get an email that that their crowd numbers for the week of Aug 15th have changed and crowd levels are now 3s and 4s. Yah...must better.

I'm curious though...anyone know why the big drop in their predictions? One of the advantages of the last week over Aug 15th week were the crowds (huge disadvantage is the closure of Haunted Mansion). The last week's numbers dropped too, but a crowd level of 3 and 4 sounds very manageable.

 

[SMD]

You'll have to ask Touring Plans why the lowered them and what that means. Are they expecting lower crowds, or are they saying that what used to be a 5 or 6 is now a 3 or 4?

 

[lcp9]

The email I got (different dates) said change in park hours. Frankly, I would take it with a grain of salt in the first place b/c it's saying next Friday (4th) went from a 6 to a 3, but seeing as how it's Dapper Day weekend I had my doubts about a 6, much less a 3.

 

[lcp9]

their blog explains they just recalibrated the scale: http://blog.touringplans.com/2016/10/25/disneyland-crowd-calendar-update/

 

[DLRExpert]

I would recommend that you just expect big crowds no matter what day you go.
If it ends up being low crowds then its a plus and you'll be one step ahead.

 

[pennym]

They have moved the scale as crowds ate constantly bigger. Thus crowds of 5 and 6 have now become 3s and 4s. A 3 or 4 day is now much more crowded than it used to be therefore.

 

[Frozen2014]

Thanks for the replies. So basically overall they have shifted what they consider say 'medium' crowds.

But for the week by week explanation on the week I'm questioning (great link by the way), it actually states that it is going to be lower crowds than expected. ... which I guess goes back to my original question. This is great, but I do wonder why. Perhaps more schools are going back (although I thought I read on another thread the opposite for locals)?

P.S. - I realise these are just predictions and doesn't actually mean the actual crowds will match.

 

[disneychrista]

Touring plans and other similar websites are known for being highly inaccurate. Last couple weeks of August will be slower than the first two weeks but it is still summer, so expect crowds.

 

[Frozen2014]

Touring plans and other similar websites are known for being highly inaccurate. Last couple weeks of August will be slower than the first two weeks but it is still summer, so expect crowds.

Thanks. We're looking at either the 3rd or 5th week in August. The last week fits in nicely since we're from Canada and our kids don't return to school until after labor day and would be nice end of the summer thing, but we're considering 3rd week since my DD and I love Haunted Mansion at WDW. So if crowds are reasonable 3rd week, then it's less of a factor of 5th week over 3rd. (Crowds wouldn't be such an issue if it wasn't going to be hot...but standing in line in the hot sun will be rough)

 

[GatorChris]

What this all means is that we should expect DL to be busy for the foreseeable future. If you see a 3 on the crowd calendar, that no longer means walk ons all day long like it used to mean. Now a 3 means what it used to look like on a Veteran's Day Week or Race Day Week.

And a 7 is New Jersey.

 

[Frozen2014]

What this all means is that we should expect DL to be busy for the foreseeable future. If you see a 3 on the crowd calendar, that no longer means walk ons all day long like it used to mean. Now a 3 means what it used to look like on a Veteran's Day Week or Race Day Week.

And a 7 is New Jersey.

Yes thanks. I get that a 3 with the changes does not mean what a 3 meant before, etc.

For one of the weeks we are considering it says
August 14 – 20, 2017
"The third week of August is going to be much less crowded than previously expected, if 2017 is anything like 2016. This update shows a lot of ‘3’s and ‘4’s at the parks that week, down from ‘6’s, ‘7’s and ‘8’s."

Not a big deal as the crowds will be waht they will be. But was just curious. Maybe they over estimated last year so are modifying accordingly (on top of the overall changes to numbers)

 

[SMD]

Again, you need to ask Touring Plans why they think that's the case. No one here is really aware of how they do their research or how far back they look. Last year was the end of the 60th. This year LAUSD is going back later. We have no way of knowing if the considered that factor last year or if they're considering the other factor this year.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Crowd counts are an interesting thing, and lets look at long term history.

Disneyland started to care the year they opened in 1955, when they got overwhelmed with guests, and Walt placed limits on ticket sells that first summer. So Disney started a department (well, back then it was two CM's, who also had other duties) that started to look at main factors and ways to get info. Te found out the school schedules and holidays had a main impact, and they could get info from nearby location. They didn't own any Hotels, but they were working with those nearby, so deals were made, hey, give us your advance reservation numbers and in return we will let you know the "trends" and what we decide what is coming up. Also, places like Knott's, in which Walt and his senior staff worked with in the 50's before Disneyland opening studying traffic patterns, so they also started to share. Universal and SeaWorld also joined the info sharing in the 1960's when they started operating.

When the Walt Disney Travel Company was formed, Disney found out they could now get a lot of trend information in what folks were buying and when, things like rooms,sizre of the group, how many days they planned to attend, etc. Plus they started to get good information in past history in the late 50's after a couple of years of operation.

Nowadays, we have a strong sharing system in Southern California of Hotels, attractions (and not just Theme Parks), and even major restaurants that come up with some pretty good numbers and trends (including average spending).

The Hotel/Lodging business in general has also formed a company that tracts the numbers and makes predictions.

Harrison "Buzz" Price was hired by Walt Disney in 1953 to study past history and figure out the best location to build,focusing on the "center" of Southern Californi in regards to potential customers. Buzz formed ERA (Economics Research Associates) in 1958, and that was the basis of what is now known as the best research for Amusement Park numbers on a daily and yearly basis. (The researchers basically is known as TEA/AECOM currently).

Now, to be honest, Disney has different set of numbers and each set has a different level. The most basic one is what Disney leads and CM's are told to help staff and predict things like what items to order to handle the expected crowds. Not too specific, but any insider can get a hold of them. The next level is Management,and is what is also known to outside sources, but attached is a NDA,so supposed to be kept quiet and not released to the public. I used to remember debating a TDA manager, who got online with the screen name "Marcie". She hated the fact I was given better numbers than she got, which prevented her "spin" from being challenged back in the early 2000's. And there are even more specific numbers that go to upper-level management,and is shared by the big players, think senior management of other Theme Park Companies, etc. And they know that the better they share, the more specific they are. But still, there is part of the companies that keep a little info to themselves, just human nature.

I know some of the websites that do the predicting, one of which, Touring Plans, I have a history with through the Unofficial Guides. They have access to many of the numbers mentions, bit not the highest level. But then the numbers come in different periods, long term advance, short term advance, and then the next day forecast. That is the hardest one to get ahold of, and also has impacts in regards to the current day sales and actual attendance, and the weather forecast.

Computers are also helping gather more info and trends, and also help in sharing the info in easy transfer of info. (I remember get the faxes with the numbers).

So yes,things do change, and well, in this case, the need to revisit the "scale" and adjust them due to changes in the trends and actual numbers.

I am still involved, but my info is basically the filming and airing of specials and live TV remotes, like morning news programs. If one of those airs promoting a specific park and its new attractions, you will see a spike in attendance for that location over the short term. Also they want to make sure they are timed to avoid two being done at the same time.

Hope that bit of inside info helps....

 

[lcp9]

FWIW I think the whole crowd thing has gotten blown out of proportion and I would not consider what is now a "3" day to be veterans day weekend or even close to approaching that. Granted, I don't know that I've ever been there and considered it empty or had walk on rides, but every time we've been in the last 2 years I don't believe we've waited more than 20 minutes for anything (with use of FP, of course.) Only once has it really felt congested, and that was a race weekend Saturday in May - and TP had it rated a 9, accordingly. We try to go on off periods during the week when 1. 99% of the US is in school, 2. there are no races, 3. no big conventions and 4. no big Disney events. If you don't mind pulling your kids from school, you can still find decent weeks to go. All the commotion about "it's always too crowded at Disneyland!" is overblown I think, just plan smart. Use TP guidelines relative to itself, and do some research on school schedules/conventions/Disney events and you should be good

 

[Darkbeer1]

You have to remember, an "internal" goal that Disney execs have is a 95% capacity attendance 365 days a year. And they are doing that through AP's and Blockout days, Value pricing on tickets, and Hotel room pricing, which of course has the lowest prices on the days they predict the lowest attendance. Also offering special events and limited time events during the slower periods.

And Disney has done a very good goal in trying to get to those numbers, especially the slower days.

So good news for Disney Stockholders, alas, not the best news for those who want to find a "slow day" to attend.

 

[Frozen2014]

Thanks for all the replies. Darkbeer, great description.

FWIW I think the whole crowd thing has gotten blown out of proportion and I would not consider what is now a "3" day to be veterans day weekend or even close to approaching that. Granted, I don't know that I've ever been there and considered it empty or had walk on rides, but every time we've been in the last 2 years I don't believe we've waited more than 20 minutes for anything (with use of FP, of course.) Only once has it really felt congested, and that was a race weekend Saturday in May - and TP had it rated a 9, accordingly. We try to go on off periods during the week when 1. 99% of the US is in school, 2. there are no races, 3. no big conventions and 4. no big Disney events. If you don't mind pulling your kids from school, you can still find decent weeks to go. All the commotion about "it's always too crowded at Disneyland!" is overblown I think, just plan smart. Use TP guidelines relative to itself, and do some research on school schedules/conventions/Disney events and you should be good

One thing I've noticed when looking at the apps for the wait times, is that the lines are less that WDW. We don't mind the crowds , just in August standing in the hot sun (since my understanding is a lot of the queues are not covered). But I've read tips on here of how to stay cool(er) so we'll manage.
As for pulling our kids out of school, we did that for the last time this past spring (on a cruise). Our older one is currently in grade 6 so we're at the point we're not comfortable with it so will need to stick to March break, summer or Xmas (whch XMas is rules out for us as crowds must be at their very worst)