Touring plans crowd tracker jump - Nov/Dec 2016

[Amanda Hall]

I just saw a 9/10 for MK for a Monday the first week of December. This numbers are way more than what they have been reflecting. WTH! Are they basing this on the fact that non party nights will have extended hours? This wasn't even predicted for dates last June when most kids were already out of school and the first Monday in December MK predicted number is more than even New Year's Day which is 8/10. I'm finding it hard to believe that MK Christmas week numbers are even close to a weekday in early December. I'm so glad I purchased 2 AP this year for both me and my husband.

There are 4 parties this week. I think that combined with free dining being available that week is changing things. There are very limited options for those who want to see night time stuff at MK if not attending a party.

 

[PabloMax]

Guess I'm lucky, the numbers for late August still look good.

 

[ariane37]

We are going for the first time this year Thanksgiving week, I'm prepared for it to be a mad house.

I am most worried about leaving AK the one day for our Epcot dinner and not being able to get into Epcot if they close admittance.

Last year the week of Thanksgiving was far from a madhouse, at least in our opinion. We were there from the Fri. before until the Sat. after (and are doing the same this year). Now granted on Thanksgiving day only 2 of us were in AK so I can't speak for the other parks, but only 1 or 2 days did we feel it was "crowded" and we had a great time. Also, if any of the parks ever closed to capacity that week, it was YEARS ago.

My wife and I were just talking about this. I would like to think they would let people in with a dinner reservation, right?

It actually depends on which stage closure they're at, but as I said above there's really no need to worry about it during Thanksgiving week

 

[sunflare]

Nooooo...I just saw a 9/10 for MK for a Monday the first week of December. These numbers are way more than what they have been reflecting. WTH! How can Sat 12/3 be less than Mon 12/5? I know non party nights may be higher but neither of these days are party nights.

Because Mondays are always the worst day to go to MK...period (except for the Sunday after a big race...those are pretty bad too). It's normally the first day of a vacation for people, and traditionally, most choose to go to MK first.

 

[disneyduonj]

My January 23, 2017 Hollywood Studios day went from a 5 to a 7. Probably one of the only 7s in my trip that week. This similar Monday in January 2016 was EasyWDW's most recommended park so that's why I picked it for 2017. In a vacuum, this would seem strange. But it turns out, MK closes at 6pm for a private party which means those staying out late are forced to the other parks. Even more for so for HS if AK doesn't have evening hours. I suppose this is the kind of things TP are taking into consideration with their updates.

HOW did you find out about the party?

 

[wendow]

Last year the week of Thanksgiving was far from a madhouse, at least in our opinion. We were there from the Fri. before until the Sat. after (and are doing the same this year). Now granted on Thanksgiving day only 2 of us were in AK so I can't speak for the other parks, but only 1 or 2 days did we feel it was "crowded" and we had a great time. Also, if any of the parks ever closed to capacity that week, it was YEARS ago.

Agree. My aunt went this same week last year and said the crowds were not that bad and very manageable.

 

[wendow]

Because Mondays are always the worst day to go to MK...period (except for the Sunday after a big race...those are pretty bad too). It's normally the first day of a vacation for people, and traditionally, most choose to go to MK first.

I did not realize this. I thought most people arrive on a Sat and head to MK on Sunday. We are headed to MK on a Monday but we are going to AK the Sunday before as our first park day. Are Mondays really that bad??

 

[Mikie]

My wife and I were just talking about this. I would like to think they would let people in with a dinner reservation, right?

I've been wondering the same thing and hope to hear some reports for this year. The main thing about Thanksgiving is where to eat! Right now we think a resort is probably the best bet.

There's an article on Touring Plans describing what phased closures are, the (relatively rare) times they generally happen, and the levels or phases of closures. If you have a reservation in-park, you are among the last group still admitted in as long as the park doesn't reach full (phase 4) closure in which no guests at all are admitted. https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/capacity-closures

 

[Mambo Junkie]

My thought all along with the crowd calendars is that everyone who reads them goes by the recommendations. If that happens, the crowds increase. I purposely don't follow the calendars for that reason. It's nice to have a general idea (which they give) but I find that with trying to avoid the crowd, you go with the crowd. I look over my reservations and fast passes every night, and I feel content with my choices. Regardless of the crowd, I have enough planned to ensure a good time, and not worry about what it will/might be. Plan well, have a positive mind set, be mentally prepared, and it will be a great trip!

 

[FortForever]

My thought all along with the crowd calendars is that everyone who reads them goes by the recommendations. If that happens, the crowds increase. I purposely don't follow the calendars for that reason. It's nice to have a general idea (which they give) but I find that with trying to avoid the crowd, you go with the crowd. I look over my reservations and fast passes every night, and I feel content with my choices. Regardless of the crowd, I have enough planned to ensure a good time, and not worry about what it will/might be. Plan well, have a positive mind set, be mentally prepared, and it will be a great trip!

Quote from Touring Plans:


"Reverse Psychology - Should I avoid the park with the lowest crowd level because everyone will go there?
"If everyone sees that Animal Kingdom has the lowest crowd level," you ask, "won't that quickly become the most crowded park?" Unfortunately, no. While we would love to dictate the ebbs and flows of crowds at Walt Disney World, we just ain't that big (yet). We estimate that a small percentage of people in any park have seen our Crowd Calendar, so consider yourself one of the lucky ones. We monitor wait times every day at every park, so if we do start to influence crowds, we'll be the first to notice."

 

[Mambo Junkie]

Quote from Touring Plans:


"Reverse Psychology - Should I avoid the park with the lowest crowd level because everyone will go there?
"If everyone sees that Animal Kingdom has the lowest crowd level," you ask, "won't that quickly become the most crowded park?" Unfortunately, no. While we would love to dictate the ebbs and flows of crowds at Walt Disney World, we just ain't that big (yet). We estimate that a small percentage of people in any park have seen our Crowd Calendar, so consider yourself one of the lucky ones. We monitor wait times every day at every park, so if we do start to influence crowds, we'll be the first to notice."

True, but they're not the only ones who post crowd calendars. I look at them all, then base my selections on that. I have been enough times to know which days are more crowded then others at which parks most of the time. For instance, when it's not a time of the year when we are having early closures due to parties, Thursday is touted as one of the best at MK. Last visit (May) it was awful; we ended up leaving after lunch, while Wednesday an EMH day (we didn't arrive until after 4) was such a great day crowd-wise, we ended up doing 3 times as many attractions as we had planned plus had a sit down dinner. 3 of the best days we had? EMH evening park days. The parks after hours were practically deserted.

 

[heath92681]

True, but they're not the only ones who post crowd calendars. I look at them all, then base my selections on that. I have been enough times to know which days are more crowded then others at which parks most of the time. For instance, when it's not a time of the year when we are having early closures due to parties, Thursday is touted as one of the best at MK. Last visit (May) it was awful; we ended up leaving after lunch, while Wednesday an EMH day (we didn't arrive until after 4) was such a great day crowd-wise, we ended up doing 3 times as many attractions as we had planned plus had a sit down dinner. 3 of the best days we had? EMH evening park days. The parks after hours were practically deserted.

So interesting to hear! Just goes to show you can't predict everything everyday!

 

[Mambo Junkie]

So interesting to hear! Just goes to show you can't predict everything everyday!

I was a bit distressed when I realized I had booked 3 EMH days but they turned out great! I'm sure it was pure luck lol, but I'm a wing it type a person and I'm not one to get rattled over waits especially if not traveling with small children. I like to break mid day because hot and crowded is not an ideal environment. I'd rather come back later when it's not so hot.

 

[DisneyFive]

My thought all along with the crowd calendars is that everyone who reads them goes by the recommendations. If that happens, the crowds increase. I purposely don't follow the calendars for that reason. It's nice to have a general idea (which they give) but I find that with trying to avoid the crowd, you go with the crowd. I look over my reservations and fast passes every night, and I feel content with my choices. Regardless of the crowd, I have enough planned to ensure a good time, and not worry about what it will/might be. Plan well, have a positive mind set, be mentally prepared, and it will be a great trip!

If that were true (people go to the low crowd park, making it the busy park) the historical crowd levels for touringplans would show that discrepancy. Looking back, most days they were within 1 or 2 levels of what they predicted.

Dan

 

[Mambo Junkie]

If that were true (people go to the low crowd park, making it the busy park) the historical crowd levels for touringplans would show that discrepancy. Looking back, most days they were within 1 or 2 levels of what they predicted.

Dan

Yes I tend to look at the historical crowds when making my plans rather than the predicted days.

 

[DisneyFive]

Yes I tend to look at the historical crowds when making my plans rather than the predicted days.

I agree with that, in that I look at both predicted and historical to make my decision. I will look at previous years crowds for the same time period that we're going.

Dan

 

[SaintsManiac]

I do take calendars in to consideration, but I think there are too many factors to just use crowd calendars.

 

[hollypoast]

My January 23, 2017 Hollywood Studios day went from a 5 to a 7. Probably one of the only 7s in my trip that week. This similar Monday in January 2016 was EasyWDW's most recommended park so that's why I picked it for 2017. In a vacuum, this would seem strange. But it turns out, MK closes at 6pm for a private party which means those staying out late are forced to the other parks. Even more for so for HS if AK doesn't have evening hours. I suppose this is the kind of things TP are taking into consideration with their updates.

HOW did you find out about the party?

Good catch coasternut22! I'm not sure I would have noticed that (we usually don't do MK on Monday's as a general rule) but now that I look a Magic Kingdom hours for that day they are indeed closing at 6 pm! It seems odd to me that the other park numbers aren't higher then they are.

 

[Princesca]

I wanna know who I have to go work for to get access to private MK parties...

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I wanna know who I have to go work for to get access to private MK parties...

I'd like to too..I can't even imagine how expensive it is.